Sotkamo Silver as an Investment Target

One can indeed add facts to that.
mined annually
2800 ounces of gold 7.5 million
1400000 ounces of silver 43.4 million
800 tonnes of lead 1.5 million
2000 tonnes of zinc 5.7 million
total turnover with a conservative estimate of 58.1 million

these are still conservative estimates and concentrations should increase from this as we go deeper.

company value currently 30 million…

if we get things really going, we’ll sweep to a 120 million turnover in the short term, then shares will probably be traded at 20 cents :laughing:

6 Likes

I also started thinking more broadly about how much potential there is here, which I myself have been calling for.

If we consider the general signs of a turnaround company, I would list at least these 6 things:

  1. Financial improvements
  2. Management changes
  3. Market and industry changes
  4. New agreements and partnerships
  5. Stock price movements
  6. Debt management and balancing

When we start to consider these points, I came to the following conclusions.

  1. Sotkamo Silver’s financial situation has been weak for several years, and the company has suffered from, among other things, production uncertainty and high costs. However, the company has reported that it launched a new production phase in 2022 and has sought to improve its financial situation. If the company has achieved significant improvements in results, such as increased revenue and positive cash flow, it could be a sign of a turnaround. However, it is not yet clear that the company has achieved a permanent financial turnaround, although the sharply increased silver price from previous years would support a turnaround in this regard.

  2. No significant changes have occurred in Sotkamo Silver’s management recently. So, there have been no changes in this regard recently.

  3. Sotkamo Silver operates in the silver mining industry, which has been volatile and partly susceptible to fluctuations in raw material prices. However, the entire mining sector has received positive attention, especially as metal prices have risen and the operations of mining companies have improved. This provides support for Sotkamo Silver’s turnaround.

  4. In recent years, Sotkamo Silver has made some important agreements and secured additional financing. For example, in 2022, the company received financing from both investors and a bank, which enabled the expansion of the mine and an increase in production. This suggests that Sotkamo Silver has made a turnaround in terms of financing to some extent, but the larger impact is still unclear.

  5. Sotkamo Silver’s share price has been volatile and reacts greatly to market conditions and the company’s financial news. The share price has at times risen sharply but has also fallen rapidly at times. However, it has already risen significantly from the lowest readings of 4 cents. One might ask if the turnaround has already happened?

  6. Sotkamo Silver has had considerable debt, but the company has worked to manage its debt burden and has also received financing to reduce debt. According to the latest reports, the company has succeeded in improving its financial situation, but debt remains a significant factor. Debt management has been part of enabling the turnaround, but the total amount of debt can still affect the permanence of the turnaround.

Has Sotkamo Silver made a turnaround?

Sotkamo Silver has shown signs of a possible turnaround in its financial situation, especially regarding new financing arrangements and improved production. However, the company’s financial situation remains challenging, and a major turnaround is difficult to confirm without stronger and continuous improvement in results. The company has launched new exploration drilling programs and secured new financing arrangements, but its future prospects largely depend on production stability, the economic sustainability of the mine, and the development of raw material prices.

Thus, while it is possible that Sotkamo Silver has made/is making a turnaround, the full extent and permanence of the turnaround are not yet completely certain.

These are the conclusions I came to. There is enormous potential, but can it be realized? Do any of you have comments on my thoughts?

11 Likes

Does anyone have information about those drilling results, when they will be published? Someone somewhere speculated they would be in January, but I can’t find where they were mentioned now?

1 Like

The following text is taken from the Q3 summary: “During the third quarter, we also commenced drilling aimed at extending the mine life in the depth extension, as well as exploration drilling into potential mineralization adjacent to the current ore body. We will provide more information on the mine life extension at the end of 2025 once all results are available. Similarly, we will provide further information regarding the potential adjacent to the current ore body in early 2025.”

3 Likes

@Aapeli_Pursimo and @Mikael_Maijala discussed the company in connection with the extensive report. :slight_smile:

Sotkamo Silver’s recent years have been challenging due to fluctuations in production volumes. Reflecting the strengthening dollar, the metal market is currently strong, so successfully increasing production volumes would support the company’s cash flow and strengthen its financial position. Analyst Aapeli Pursimo discusses the risks and opportunities related to the company.

Topics:

00:00 Introduction
00:18 Challenges faced by the company
02:41 Silver as the main metal
03:15 Company strategy and goals
05:42 What does the balance sheet position look like?
07:29 Does the investment case rely solely on external factors?
09:11 Recommendation and valuation

3 Likes

Sotkamo’s Q4 looks good, as we aren’t even going to issue a profit warning, even though we fell short of targets earlier in the year. A proper turnaround will definitely be made for this company 🫱🏻‍🫲🏼

Don’t rush yet, don’t we still have a few weeks to give warnings :smiley:

3 Likes

You are right. A listed company should issue a profit warning as soon as possible if its financial situation deviates significantly from previous forecasts and this may affect the share price. In Finland, listed companies must comply with listing and stock exchange trading rules, which require the company to issue a profit warning immediately when its situation changes significantly.

A profit warning must be issued at least 14 days before the publication of an interim report or financial statements, if it concerns previous forecasts or earnings expectations. This deadline is defined according to the rules of the Nasdaq Helsinki stock exchange.

In the profit warning, the company must state the reasons why the financial results deviate from those anticipated and strive to provide as accurate an estimate as possible of future development.

So, there is time until the end of this month to issue a warning, but hopefully it won’t be necessary.

3 Likes

And there came the profit warning.

Suddenly they remembered that they probably should mention this, as there have been technical challenges last month.

The expectations for production volume and EBITDA seem quite vague now. Could they really be more than “slightly” lower?

2 Likes

I doubt it, I’d guess around a 2-5% deviation from the original amount. Of course, even that is something.

1 Like

Quite an expected announcement, the beginning of the year went awry. Q4 will be a tough read if we only fell slightly short 🫱🏻‍🫲🏼

1 Like

In all honesty, this was expected. Fortunately, it came now and not at the very last minute. It will be interesting to see how much of this was already priced in. It’s unlikely this will end here; the value might still rise once the wave of panic subsides and the markets find the right balance.

1 Like

Silver, at least, is rising sharply as the inflation bogeyman eases a bit and interest rate cuts continue…

Those don’t matter if there are production problems, with management now having 2-3 lost production months on their shoulders in the last six months. Let’s hope that 2025 has at least 11/12 full production months so that 1.5m ounces can be mined. Further plans are also on the table, of course. Still poor communication; they should have reported these immediately, or did they not want to spoil their Christmas holidays? It would be nice to be positively surprised sometimes.

1 Like

Aapeli Pursimo has published a new company report on Sotkamo Silver. :slight_smile:

On Wednesday, Sotkamo Silver lowered its 2024 silver production guidance and margin expectations. The background to the profit warning was production-related, which again tests confidence in the stabilization of the Silver Mine’s production. The profit warning and its timing came as a negative surprise to us. Reflecting the re-emerged production challenges, we have lowered our production forecasts for the coming years and raised our required rate of return for the share. Due to negative forecast changes and an elevated risk profile, our sum-of-the-parts valuation was also under clear pressure. We are therefore lowering our target price to SEK 1.0 (previously SEK 1.4) and our recommendation to “reduce” (previously “add”), reflecting the weakened risk/reward ratio.

2 Likes

Aapeli Pursimo could have another sit-down interview and ask what the hell is so difficult about it again 🫱🏻‍🫲🏼
Quite an expected announcement, but with these prices, they should be making fierce profits. If we returned to $16 an ounce prices, this business would cease to exist after 3 months.

3 Likes

That’s right. Aapeli seems to be right once again, and this company probably doesn’t have a realistic future as a permanent turnaround company. It’s probably best to follow the recommendations and reduce holdings, as the situation looks quite bad.

3 Likes

Currently, there are no interviews scheduled with the company, but we’ll see if one can be arranged at some point. The company has typically organized a webcast in connection with its results, which also includes a Q&A session. A webcast for Q4 is also coming, and if you have any questions, you can at least present them directly to management during that session.

But perhaps a brief summary from my side regarding the profit warning: the reduction in production guidance in January came as a negative surprise. I assumed that production volumes would have been clear enough earlier, whereas finalizing the numbers typically takes longer (cf. the reduction in EBITDA guidance). In addition, the reduction in production guidance appears negative anyway, as the guidance had to be lowered again after August, and an average performance (or even slightly weaker) in Q4 would have been enough to exceed the lower end of the guidance.

Well, the challenges behind the profit warning are certainly surprising and, in principle, temporary, although more detailed comments on their extent will have to wait until the results. In recent years, however, various production challenges have been unfortunately recurring, making it difficult to achieve uninterrupted production periods. As a result, for example, reaching the targeted production level of 1.5 million ounces has been delayed, which has also increased the burden of proof for achieving this along the way. Now, all that remains is to wait for the company’s more detailed comments and plans regarding production stabilization (in the short and longer term). As stated, for example, in the extensive report and recent update, there should in principle be potential to increase volumes and stabilize production, but a clearer restoration of confidence would require longer, consistent, uninterrupted production periods.

I agree that production needs to be stabilized and volumes significantly increased if the metal market were to cool down. Currently, despite the challenges, the market provides support for generating profit and cash flow, but unfortunately, with the volumes realized recently, it cannot be utilized anywhere near its full potential. This, in turn, would be important for strengthening the financial position and financing future investments, at least partly through internal funding.

6 Likes

One could ask the company’s management why they are reluctant to communicate about production problems sooner. Now apparently (judging by the financial figures), production was almost at a standstill for December, and no effort was made to communicate about it earlier. The announcement also makes no mention of whether the problem has already been solved or how long a potential fix for the situation will take.

5 Likes

I can ask about this when the results are released. The company had indeed already entered a quiet period yesterday, so we’ll have to wait almost another month for more information. However, based on the release, production indeed remained at a low level in December (cf. October-November, which was in line with the company’s expectations). I wouldn’t dare to say for sure, but I suspect that if the situation had already been fully normalized, it would have been mentioned in the release. Thus, I would guess (updated forecasts are also based on this) that the problems will also be reflected in at least the early year’s production figures. However, we’ll be wiser on this matter when the results are released.

4 Likes

A-team quality, portfolio loaded, we’re going soon.

2 Likes