Smart Eye - King of automotive’s Interior Sensing AI?

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Since no one else has posted, I will.

Summary

Smart Eye has successfully completed the Advanced Driver Distraction Warning (ADDW) system approval (homologation) with Spanish bus manufacturer Ayats. This is one of the first ADDW approvals in accordance with the EU’s General Safety Regulation (GSR).

The AIS system, which monitors driver eye movements, gaze direction, and head posture, was updated in August 2024 to better meet EU GSR requirements. It helps identify driver distraction and prevent accidents.

The approval was carried out in cooperation with the engineering firm SistemasADAS and evaluated by the IDIADA testing facility. It ensures that Ayats’ buses meet the GSR’s ADDW requirements, which come into force in July 2026.

Smart Eye has previously received approval for its Driver Drowsiness and Attention Warning (DDAW) system. Now the company is expanding its safety focus to combat driver distraction, which is one of Europe’s most significant road safety challenges.

The project parties, including Ayats and SistemasADAS, emphasized smooth cooperation, efficiency, and the rapid integration of the AIS system into Ayats’ vehicles.

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GPT says that Smart Eye is currently the only one with DDAW homologation ‘regulatory approval’ for commercial vehicles. Tobii doesn’t have this at all, and Seeing Machines only has it in passenger cars, according to GPT.
Also noteworthy was the sentence at the end, which would hint a bit that the system update would then be coming from Smart Eye to them.
“Thanks to the close collaboration of the Smart Eye team and the support from SistemasADAS, their efficiency and speed, and the smooth communication, always willing to listen to our needs, we have managed to integrate AIS quickly and efficiently into our fleet of vehicles.”

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I might be mistaken, but Tobii doesn’t seem to offer an aftermarket product?

I recall Seeing having made one at least, but could it have been for the same one that Smart already had?

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  • Smart Eye’s homologation with Ayats is one of the earliest successful certifications under the EU’s General Safety Regulation (GSR) for Advanced Driver Distraction Warning (ADDW), highlighting their proactive approach to meeting regulatory requirements.
  • Seeing Machines’ homologation also aligns with the GSR, but their focus has been on Driver Drowsiness and Attention Warning (DDAW) compliance, with plans to expand to ADDW
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Unless there is a hurry to get new models out and Seeing does not get its own approval for commercial ADDW, Smart, with this information, can now only get a new deal with Ayats.
There is certainly an opportunity to take market share from Seeing because they succeeded in this first, but there are no guarantees that Seeing wouldn’t do something similar with Scania, for example.

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You probably threw Scania in as a throwaway, but I can’t resist writing that Smart Eye presumably has a DMS Design Win with Scania’s owner, Traton. Scania is also a close partner with SEYE, so I would assume things are well underway with them. They are developing safety systems together, although that certainly doesn’t mean that Design Wins or other partnerships couldn’t come from others.

Seeing Machines, or at least Colin and the fanboys, have been hyping the pioneering nature of their AIS product, Guardian 3, for a few years now. However, sales haven’t materialized, and they are now trying to get distribution through Mitsubishi Electric, to whom they sold a fifth of their company.

Seeing’s strength is reporting delivered quantities quarterly. The previous quarter was a disappointment in both DMS and AIS deliveries.

Was it during the Q3 earnings release when Martin mentioned that Smart Eye is collaborating with 14 bus manufacturers? The recently announced Ayats is hopefully on the smaller end of these. They manufacture fewer than 500 vehicles annually. In addition to Seeing Machines, competition is offered by at least Cipia and Neonode. Approximately 40,000 buses are sold in Europe each year.

There have been unusual stock movements for Smart and Seeing this week. Smart Eye has gone up sharply and Seeing Machines down sharply. I haven’t identified any related news. Is something brewing, or will the end of the week be the other way around?

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SmartEye recently received its biggest DW package in history from GM for the years 2027 onwards. In that context, Martin stated that they are a software Tier-1, and I speculated that the win probably came through Nvidia or another large autonomous driving “stack”.

As I wrote here years ago, SmartEye’s software is included on the Nvidia Drive platform. Of course, there may be others, but the GM wins came to SmartEye. It’s certainly nice to note that these joint projects with Nvidia, Cerence, etc., have materialized into future revenue. And a big one, as Martin said, that GM win alone covers all their costs.

Nice to note that the deep dive research was on the right track years ago :ok_hand:

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If you’re bored, you can check out some nice logos from the banner here.

Then you can see from the news below what OEMs are doing for future cars on Nvidia’s platform. It undeniably includes many Seyen customers.

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Tobii or not Tobii, It didn’t take long for the news to emerge that Tobii has now also achieved this.

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We’ll see…

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Short interest clearly rising and short sellers have had a field day. The stock has been driven down with small daily volume.

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Alright, let’s see if this translates.

2025-04-03 09:11:00 GMT

Smart Eye Secures 200 MSEK Design Win Deal – Delivering to Major New Japanese OEM Customer as a Software Tier 1

The breakthrough deal means Smart Eye will deliver its Driver Monitoring System (DMS) software to two new car models by a globally leading Japanese OEM. The estimated revenue of the order is SEK 200 million based on product life cycle projections.

“This is a defining moment for Smart Eye,” said Martin Krantz, CEO and Founder of Smart Eye. ”Back in 2019, we recognized that driver monitoring systems were expanding beyond the premium segment into the mass market. We set our sight on a clear goal: to become the leading supplier to the highest-volume car manufacturers. Today, that goal is firmly accomplished – we are by far the largest supplier to the world’s leading automotive producers.”

There is potential for additional sales to this customer, but production will only start in about 2 years.

Smart Eye’s DMS software will be integrated into two upcoming car models, with production scheduled to begin in mid-2027. The estimated revenue for the order is SEK 200 million, based on product life cycle volume projections. In addition, the upsell potential as a software Tier 1 supplier to this customer exceeds SEK 2.4 billion.

But on the other hand, the company says this:

The revenue for these design wins will begin impacting Smart Eye’s financial results already in Q2 2025.

Now I’m a bit lost on the matter. A good win nonetheless.

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100M per car model, 2M cars at a price of 50 SEK each. These are quite reasonable volume models, or a really good price has been set. Either way, it looks like a very good deal, and it’s apparently a Toyota.

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Globally leading.

I haven’t seen RedEye’s comment yet, but I think they read this the same way I do.

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In the context of Smart’s press releases, this term would only be used for one Japanese manufacturer.

This is a big deal, by the way. Tier-1.

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They probably refer to NRE revenues, which are paid during the design phase.

Edit. Now I read the Design Win announcement hastily. Toyota or Honda is probably in question, and now Smart would have both.

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I read this to mean that customer = OEM. A Japanese OEM. So, not a “traditional Tier-1 player”.

Thus, we are probably talking about Toyota’s (customer) potential.

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Yes, exactly. I was hasty. Both are better. It’s good that we get revenue for this quarter as well to compensate for a possible trade war sales decrease.

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Interesting phrasing also on the newsletter side

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If the stock market information says “globally leading Japanese OEM” and the newsletter says “another of the world’s largest car manufacturers”, which clearly refers to the two largest.

So timontti takes Gemini in hand and quickly asks for a list of Top-OEMs.

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This is quite obvious.

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If Martin’s speeches and the statistics above are truly to be believed, then Smart’s market leadership is clear. Unless new technologies completely disrupt Smart (robotaxis, FSD) here, then this looks good for the stock. The cash flow still needs to turn positive after a few years of kicking the can down the road, after which the path is open.

However, on a down day, I think the stock’s reaction is quite weak.

Edit. Red Eye’s comments: https://www.redeye.se/research/1092546/smart-eye-bags-a-goliath

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Now, in honor of this celebration, I’ll take the liberty of copy-pasting the entire update for once. Over the years, I’ve somewhat ‘sanded the track’ for RE, for example, by exposing analysts’ dishonest pumping activities, so this trick too shall be allowed to me one more time. :smiley:

Smart Eye: Bags a Goliath

Redeye is pleased to note that Smart Eye announced two new design wins worth SEK200m today with an upside potential as a software Tier-1 totaling SEK2.4bn, the most significant order in the company’s history. The customer is a globally leading Japanese OEM. Given the size of the order, the high order value per car model of SEK100m (indicating high volumes), and that the OEM is stated to be “one of the industry’s most influential vehicle manufacturers,” Redeye believes the OEM is the largest vehicle manufacturer in the world, namely, Toyota.

The new contract announced today includes two design wins for a total value of SEK200m related to a Japanese OEM (Redeye prediction: Toyota). The models are scheduled to start production by mid-2027, and the estimated future additional design wins increased by a net of SEK2.4bn to a total of SEK5,715m.

In the Q4 2024 report, Smart Eye’s CEO Martin Krantz stated, “We are fully immersed in the exciting ongoing nomination season. We are in an excellent position, and we strive to defend our market leadership and our already high market share for the future.” As we wrote in our latest research update, the company has a history of delivering on its promises regarding design wins, and Redeye anticipated a strong news flow during Q1. Although a bit delayed, today’s announcement once again did not disappoint and verified Smart Eye’s strong technological position. Industry activity remains high, with many RFQs still ongoing, and we expect that there could be more design wins announced during the coming month.

Today’s order marks yet another contract where Smart Eye will deliver its software as a software tier-1. Moving up the value chain means that Smart Eye will take on a more strategic role in the automotive supply chain, building stronger relationships with the OEM as the company comes closer to the projects, OEMs, and end users.

The new design wins further strengthen our conviction that Smart Eye will reach a market share of at least 40% (Redeye’s estimate is 42% for 2026e). While the order is significant and increases Smart Eye’s total order book, including upselling potential, by 22%, it is incorporated in our estimates that the company will continue to dominate procurements and do not render any estimate or valuation changes. However, due to the low levels of design wins announced by competitors in the past 1-2 years, we would like to note that our estimates of Smart Eye’s market share may be on the conservative side.

Redeye reiterates its fair value range with a Base Case of SEK120.

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