I would also see that this is not limited to just Ukraine and the Middle East, or areas where interstate wars are fought in general. Various types of drone jamming and sabotage have already been seen on a small scale, but terrorists or criminals haven’t really made use of drones yet, or at least I haven’t come across such news. I see it as only a matter of time before they do. That the Houthis, Hamas, and others will start utilizing these in their attacks—and I suppose this has already been seen—but also the “truck into a Christmas market crowd” style attacks seen in recent years. Furthermore, looking at what’s going on in Sweden, now that they have underage kids throwing grenades at places, surely there’s drone potential in those kinds of things too?
And as a disclaimer, let’s not steer the conversation toward terrorism or the reasons behind it, or whether we want to see such a day or not, but I would consider the risk to be high, which in turn means demand for the products of a company like Sensofusion.
Wars come to an end at some point. This raises the question of whether Sensofusion’s technology could also be used during peacetime in a situation where drones are becoming common in everyday life as well. By this, I mean drone deliveries, for instance, and everything else drones could otherwise be used for. In other words, a complete picture of the airspace is continuously obtained, and at the same time, the location of every drone is known. If there are deviations, they will then automatically come to light with the help of the technology. Some kind of system must be in the background in such an overall setup. Could it be the one developed by Sensofusion?
In the Q&A of the info session, a question was asked about the breakdown of revenue between conflict zones and non-conflict zones. I found it surprising and positive for the company that more revenue came from non-conflict zones.
I wonder what proportion of the revenue was generated by the drone factory containers and what part by the airfences? The unit price for those containers is, however, relatively staggering at €2.1 million each, so relative to the current revenue, not many modules ultimately need to be delivered before their impact on revenue is significant. Based on the material (Company Presentation Sept 23, 2026), the investment focuses on the Airfence itself.
Not a single one of those containers or drone factories has been sold yet, and as I understand it, they aren’t even on sale yet either. This is discussed in the CEO’s interview a couple of messages up. The container itself sounded ready, but the Interceptor drone is not yet. An annual fee was also included for these (though the price wasn’t disclosed), which then covers updates, etc.
I wonder how it is with those drone components, like the battery, motors, cameras, etc. Does Sensofusion make those or outsource them somewhere, or are they just off-the-shelf items bought elsewhere that container buyers will then purchase independently in the future?
I’m thinking about the valuation, meaning if you pay 1.3 billion for the company now, how large of an upside is realistic in the coming years? In other words, at what point is it possible to make a return here and how much?
The company is actually really good in itself, but the valuation doesn’t tolerate many negative surprises (the downside potential is large). So how valuable could the company become?
For comparison, one can throw in a couple of technology sector comparables (current market capitalization):
Sensofusion 1.3B
Bittium 1.4B
Vaisala 2.2B
The company is raising 300 million in the share issue, and that will have a big impact on the company’s operations. (That’s six times the current revenue.)
I watched that new commercial and liked it a lot, but I have a few comments, as hardly everyone is a drone guru even on this forum.
The positioning of drones is presented as being easy. Airfence shows the drone’s location and also the operator’s. This is a relatively straightforward process with commercial FPV drones when telemetry data that is not encrypted can be read.
The situation changes significantly when moving beyond the detection of commercial drones. Triangulation is needed, which the device is indeed capable of with multiple antennas, but it has its limitations both due to the structure and how the drones themselves emit RF.
Competition in this field is fierce, with practically at least half a hundred companies offering various SDR and antenna solutions. It’s probably fair to ask how Sensofusion stands out from the crowd in the international market. Is the solution more affordable, earlier to market, does it cover a wider frequency range and range, or what?
It is clear that money is needed for development and growth, which is why I hope the offering is successful.
Certainly in the current global situation, being a European operator gives you a certain advantage, at least with local customers. However, there is likely still plenty of competition from within Europe itself, right?
They certainly exist, but I have to say that Sensofusion’s advantage has been a working, turnkey package at the right time. End customers appreciate simplicity and complete solutions, and they are also willing to pay for them. The equipment has also been well-received abroad, so you could say it’s one of the pioneers, but there is no major moat unless they are able to continue developing at a rapid pace. The development of drone “communication” is moving forward at a furious pace.
I wonder if more anchor investors will be found before the subscription period begins? Subscriptions worth over 300 million euros need to be secured, and based on current information, the announced anchor investors will subscribe for 170 million euros.
The presentation is the day after tomorrow, so could the subscription period begin as early as this week?
The public offering starts on Oct 2 at 10:00 with a price of €16.41. They’re targeting a market cap of 1.6 yards (billion).. Does this smell a bit pricey now?
I’m thinking that the 1.6 billion is the starting point for an investor, from which it’s supposed to go up. How valuable can such a small company really become? I’m a bit worried that if there are any hiccups in growth along the way, it could get ugly.
Well, time will tell, and it could be that the company does just fine, but in real life, growth is rarely a straight line drawn with a ruler—it’s more erratic. Investor communication is definitely emphasized a great deal in a company like this.
PS. The webcast is starting soon, it’ll be interesting to see what they say.
Sensofusion’s webcast was very informative (and long). A few takeaways:
The CEO’s review was thorough; to put the company’s operations in a nutshell, it’s about constantly developing better products for counter-drone defense. Understandably, the defense sector is the largest customer segment, given that defense budgets are massive compared to the civilian side.
The factory tour was interesting; the manufacturing looked a bit “craft-heavy” / manual, so I don’t know how automated the production really is. The drone factory container is a neat innovation—interceptor drones can be manufactured right at the front lines.
Post-offering, there are lock-up restrictions for the main owner and the board, among others.
Moats compared to competitors: investments in technology development and accelerating the pace of that development.
Regarding the dividend policy, they say it will be reviewed annually. Currently, the best use of capital is to reinvest in the business (R&D). So, no dividends will be paid out immediately, at least.
Product development relies heavily on their proprietary AI, which is used to analyze data gathered from the field.
As a baseline, no M&A will be pursued; growth is organic.
+++
In my opinion, this company’s business model strongly resembles Vaisala’s—cutting-edge tech, but in a market that is growing and evolving much more rapidly.
I haven’t seen any information anywhere on whether the company has managed to patent its technology? One could probably assume that when a lot of effort is put into R&D, patents would be generated.
An interesting company. Plenty of material in the company presentation, but at least I couldn’t find a prospectus anywhere. Only 8% of revenue comes from Ukraine. Some of the detection and countermeasure methods are still in the development phase.
The downside of patents is that when you get one, you simultaneously disclose how your technology works. This is certainly not desirable in defense applications.
