Pulp love i.e. Stora, UPM, Metsä etc.

UPM ceases label material production at its Nancy mill in France. The Nancy site will continue to operate as a slitting and distribution terminal to ensure high-quality customer service and fast delivery times for UPM Adhesive Materials business customers. The negotiation process with employee representatives was concluded on 12 November 2025 in accordance with French legislation and approved by the French authorities on 28 November 2025.

The change affects 79 employees. UPM offers support to its personnel to mitigate the effects of job losses.

The aim of the change is to support the growth of UPM Adhesive Materials business by improving the competitiveness of operations and maximizing synergies. By concentrating production at more competitive mills, UPM also improves cost-efficiency and the quality of its products.

3 Likes

Exactly, the price of raw material is falling because demand has decreased. In fact, wood purchase volumes are so low relative to consumption that forest companies are currently heavily harvesting their accumulated standing timber stock. For example, in October, industrial wood harvesting volumes were approximately 6% lower than in the previous year. On a weekly basis, wood purchase volumes this autumn have, however, been approximately 40-65% lower than last year.

Perhaps the goal is that purchase volumes can be gradually increased at some point without the price of wood skyrocketing. But surely such purchase volumes cannot be maintained indefinitely either.

5 Likes

First thinnings must be done according to the stand; it’s not worth waiting too long for better prices. Sawlogs are apparently still reasonably well-priced, and even if over 80% of the final felling yields sawlogs, over half of the timber from the harvested clear-cut ends up in the pulp mill. Winter logging sites were left unharvested last winter due to weather conditions, and this winter hasn’t started any better. Probably a good time to consciously fight to bring wood prices down.

I need to clarify the above, overly generalizing text a bit. In spruce stands, first thinnings can be profitably postponed. A spruce stand doesn’t suffer from over-density right away. A heavier first thinning also produces a thicker mat of needles on the logging track, thus protecting the root system, and logging can be carried out even in summer. These are basic things, known already in the 90s, but indeed only apply to spruce stands.

4 Likes

Handelsbanken predicts that signs of improvement will start to appear in the forest industry situation in early 2026.

Secondly, even though harvested wood has basic demand in the long term, prices will still drop by about 15% from the current level.

A third noteworthy point is the gradually improving competitive position of short-fiber South American.

It should be noted, of course, that the development of the Chinese market and peace in Ukraine can change the situation in both the short and long term.

9 Likes

Inside Information: UPM and Sappi have signed a non-binding letter of intent to establish a joint venture for graphic papers

UPM-Kymmene Corporation (“UPM”) and Sappi Limited (“Sappi”) have signed a non-binding letter of intent to establish a joint venture for graphic papers (“Joint Venture”). The Joint Venture would include the entire UPM Communication Papers business and Sappi’s graphic papers business in Europe. UPM and Sappi would own the Joint Venture in a 50/50 ratio. The Joint Venture would operate as an independent company, managing its own operations, resources, and decision-making within the limits agreed by the shareholders.

Securing Long-term Adaptability and Sustainability

The arrangement would create a more efficient, flexible, and sustainable graphic papers business. It would create a structurally competitive cost base and supply security for European and global customers.

By allocating production volumes to the most efficient paper machines, the Joint Venture would achieve more sustainable capacity utilization and stronger operational performance, continuing to serve customers with a wide range of graphic paper products.

The Joint Venture would rationalize supply in an industry burdened by declining demand, structural overcapacity, and high energy costs. It would promote a more balanced and adaptable European graphic paper market and improve the industry’s ability to withstand market challenges and increasing imports into Europe.

UPM Communication Papers has an ambitious climate action program aiming to reduce product-specific emissions by up to 70% by 2030. This supports customers in achieving their climate targets. The Joint Venture would further strengthen these opportunities. By optimizing capacity utilization, improving operational efficiency, and continuing investments in CO2 emission reduction, the Joint Venture could reduce its climate impact, promoting the EU’s Clean Industrial Deal objectives.

Key Highlights and Terms of the Arrangement

The proposed Joint Venture would be 50/50 owned by UPM and Sappi and would operate as an independent company.

The Joint Venture is planned to have transferred to it:

- The entire UPM Communication Papers business, including eight UPM Communication Papers mills: Kymi, Rauma (including UPM RaumaCell), and Jämsänkoski (paper machine 6) in Finland; Nordland (paper machines 1 and 4), Augsburg, and Schongau in Germany; UPM Caledonian in the UK; and Blandin in the USA; and

- Sappi’s European graphic papers business, including the following four graphic paper mills: Kirkniemi in Finland, Ehingen in Germany, Gratkorn in Austria, and Maastricht in the Netherlands.

The Joint Venture is expected to create estimated annual synergies of approximately EUR 100 million through optimization of production facilities, product portfolio rationalization, logistics optimization, improved procurement efficiency, and operational efficiencies.

According to the letter of intent:

- UPM and Sappi would transfer their aforementioned businesses and assets to the Joint Venture, with an enterprise value of EUR 1,420 million, which does not include the value of the synergies mentioned above.

- The UPM Communication Papers business is valued at EUR 1,100 million (enterprise value). UPM would receive a cash payment of EUR 613 million from the Joint Venture and 50% of the Joint Venture’s shares.

- Sappi’s European business is valued at EUR 320 million (enterprise value). Sappi would receive a cash payment of EUR 139 million from the Joint Venture and 50% of the Joint Venture’s shares.

In connection with the implementation of the arrangement, the Joint Venture would raise debt to finance the purchase prices payable to Sappi and UPM. The Joint Venture would arrange its financing independently, and to the extent it would require additional financing in the future, the shareholders would have no obligation to provide additional financing.

The Joint Venture would distribute dividends based on its financial results and position to its two shareholders.

The establishment of the Joint Venture would create a sustainable independent business, which would offer both shareholders the opportunity for divestment in the future. Three years after the implementation of the arrangement, when the Joint Venture is expected to have completed its integration and achieved synergies, each shareholder could divest its ownership in the Joint Venture.

Impact of the Arrangement on UPM’s Key Figures

UPM’s financial benefit upon completion of the transaction would include a EUR 613 million cash payment from the Joint Venture to UPM, the transfer of EUR 406 million in pension liabilities to the Joint Venture, and UPM’s share (50%) in the Joint Venture. The valuations and financial impacts of the arrangement are estimates at the time of signing the letter of intent and are subject to customary adjustments related to the implementation of the arrangement.

The valuation of the UPM Communication Papers business at EUR 1.1 billion corresponds to 4.6 times EBITDA for the latest reported 12-month period (Q4/2024–Q3/2025).

UPM Communication Papers balance sheet items that would be transferred to the Joint Venture represent less than 10% of UPM’s consolidated balance sheet.

UPM’s share in the Joint Venture would be accounted for using the equity method.

The arrangement is expected to have a positive impact on UPM’s profitability margins (EBIT percentage of sales), balance sheet, and indebtedness. UPM would also achieve a more focused business portfolio in growing markets and would no longer have direct sales to the declining European and North American graphic paper markets.

The table below presents key figures for UPM, UPM Communication Papers, and UPM excluding UPM Communication Papers.

kuva
The tables present UPM’s key figures as reported and excluding UPM Communication Papers. The figures do not include the impacts of the Joint Venture’s establishment, transaction costs, synergies or negative synergies, or project costs.

Regulatory Approvals and Other Terms of the Arrangement

Negotiations on the details of the Joint Venture are ongoing, and final agreements are expected to be signed in the first half of 2026. Final agreements are subject to the conclusion of external financing agreements, Sappi shareholder approval, and the fulfillment of other conditions.

The implementation of the proposed arrangement requires merger control approval from the European Commission, as well as regulatory approvals from certain other countries, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and China. The parties are committed to working with the authorities throughout the approval processes.

Currently, the arrangement is expected to be completed by the end of 2026, subject to obtaining regulatory approvals and the fulfillment of other conditions of the arrangement. The Joint Venture would commence its operations after the implementation of the arrangement.

UPM Communication Papers and Sappi’s European graphic papers businesses will continue to operate as separate and independent businesses and manage their own operations until the implementation of the planned Joint Venture, in accordance with applicable regulations and regulatory requirements.

22 Likes

UPM is a material solutions company with world-class businesses in growing markets. With the planned joint venture for graphic papers announced today between UPM and Sappi, UPM aims to position the Communication Papers business to continue creating customer value in a way that promotes UPM’s shareholder value. The realization of the joint venture would positively impact UPM’s profitability margins (EBIT percentage of sales), balance sheet, and indebtedness, and UPM would no longer have direct sales to the declining European and North American graphic papers markets.

Focused Material Solutions Company with a Strong Growth History

If the joint venture were established, the future UPM would have an attractive business portfolio focused on renewable fibers, advanced materials, and carbon emission reduction solutions. All the aforementioned businesses operate in growing markets, and UPM has grown faster than GDP in these areas: sales growth has been approximately 4.4% (CAGR) over the last decade (2014–2024).

These businesses are leaders in their respective fields and aim for world-class performance. UPM operates globally, which allows the businesses to seize opportunities in faster-growing markets, utilizing competitive production.

Renewable Fibers: Maximizing Value Creation with Current Capital

UPM Fibres globally offers sustainable, high-quality short and long-fiber pulp and sawn timber. Strong production platforms and capabilities provide opportunities for improving capital efficiency and generating effective cash flow.

Fibres South forms a world-class pulp production platform with competitive mills, productive wood plantations, and efficient logistics infrastructure. It enables value creation through cost optimization and debottlenecking production with minimal investments. Fibres North expands the customer offering with long-fiber pulp, and its well-maintained mills and flexible operating model enable competitiveness.

Advanced Materials: Targeted Capital-Efficient Growth

Advanced materials businesses offer technically demanding materials for growing end-uses. These businesses are less capital-intensive compared to UPM’s other businesses, enabling targeted growth in the coming years.

UPM Adhesive Materials offers high-quality self-adhesive paper and film products globally and has established a strong foothold in graphic solutions.

UPM Specialty Papers offers specialty packaging materials for flexible packaging, labels, and industrial release papers globally, as well as fine papers in the Asia-Pacific region.

Carbon Emission Reduction Solutions: Long-Term Growth Potential with Unique Solutions

Carbon emission reduction solutions address the growing need to reduce climate emissions, offering means from the electrification of society to low-emission transport and bio-based chemicals.

UPM Energy offers carbon-free electricity for growing consumption needs with stable nuclear power and flexible, value-adding hydropower.

UPM Biorefining offers innovative solutions for reducing carbon emissions in transport and aviation, as well as renewable, bio-based chemicals. The business offers significant long-term growth potential. The business has established a strong position in the European advanced renewable fuels markets. UPM is launching an exciting new renewable chemicals business, and the first-of-its-kind biorefinery in Leuna, Germany, is expected to start customer deliveries in the last quarter of 2025.

Strategic Review of Graphic Paper Joint Venture and UPM Plywood Business Expected to Conclude During 2026

The planned joint venture for UPM Communication Papers business is currently expected to take place by the end of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and other conditions being met. For more information, see the release.

A strategic review is underway at UPM Plywood to maximize the long-term potential and value creation of the business. The strategic review of UPM Plywood is expected to be completed by the end of 2026.

During the strategic review of UPM Plywood and until the potential realization of the planned UPM Communication Papers and Sappi European graphic paper joint venture, UPM will continue to operate and develop these businesses with a commitment to its customers.

Short-Term Focus on Competitiveness, Targeted Growth, and Balance Sheet

In addition to the aforementioned strategic portfolio projects, UPM is focusing on further enhancing competitiveness, improving capital efficiency, and strengthening its balance sheet. Following last year’s investments, the company has a strong asset base, enabling targeted growth projects in a capital-efficient manner.

UPM aims to allocate capital in a balanced way by developing the company with targeted investments, distributing an attractive dividend, and maintaining a strong balance sheet.

UPM’s Financial Key Figures Assuming the Planned Graphic Papers Joint Venture

The tables below present UPM’s key financial figures as reported and excluding UPM Communication Papers. The figures do not include the effects of establishing the joint venture, transaction costs, synergies or dis-synergies, or project costs.

image

image

21 Likes

So Jämsänkoski would produce products for two different companies: Speciality Papers for UPM and the rest for the newly created joint venture?

1 Like

If the merger goes through, then 2-3 of those 12 mills transferring to the new unit will likely be closed quite quickly. It will be a repeat of the UPM-Myllykoski merger. Such a large entity is easier to restructure in a declining end-product market. A lot will happen within 2-3 years. As for whether Jämsänkoski’s PK6 will continue, I cannot comment on that.

14 Likes

Yes, this seems like a sensible move! Plywood could now be kept within UPM

According to CEO Massimo Reynaudo, UPM would benefit from the arrangement by receiving cash, transferring pension liabilities to the joint venture, and owning half of the new company.\n\nThe arrangement would improve UPM’s profitability and balance sheet. The forest company would also no longer operate directly in the declining European and North American paper markets.\n\nThe joint venture is expected to bring annual savings of approximately 100 million euros through the streamlining of production, product portfolio, and logistics.”\n\nMetsäjätti muuttaa suuntaa – UPM:n avaukseen on selvät syyt | Kauppalehti

20 Likes

That slide in UPM’s presentation today tells how strong UPM’s desire is to get rid of graphic papers. UPM’s contribution to the company is 3.43 times more valuable than SAPPI’s. Still, the ownership stakes are 50/50, as UPM wants to get much more cash out of the arrangement immediately than SAPPI. They will probably try to sell the entire burden immediately after 3-4 years, when the contract terms allow it, if a buyer can be found. By then, the graphic paper market will have shrunk by another 20%, so there will be plenty to restructure. It’s likely that about 20% of the capacity will indeed be cut immediately when the JV starts. What will the JV be named? Kymmene? Or Roskapankki (Junk Bank) :slight_smile:

16 Likes

It’s good to note that those enterprise values include debts and pension liabilities. Sappi’s press release makes it clearer that the arrangement is actually completely symmetrical from the companies’ perspective; both are net contributing €127-128m to the company (net assets - received cash).

https://www.sappi.com/en-us/about-us/news-and-events/sappi-and-upm-propose-combining-their-european-based-graphic-paper

“The Sappi business is valued at €320 million which, based on an FY2025 EBITDA of €64 million represents a 5x multiple. Sappi will transfer pension and other liabilities of €53 million and net assets valued at €267 million to the Joint Venture. In return Sappi will receive cash of €139 million and 50% shareholding in the Joint Venture.

The UPM business is valued at €1,100 million, which represents a 4.6x multiple of the last reported 12 months to September 2025 EBITDA. UPM will transfer pension and other liabilities of €360 million and net assets of €740 million to the Joint Venture. In return UPM will receive cash of €613 million and 50% shareholding in the Joint Venture.”

25 Likes

Thanks for the observations. I wondered about those figures and thought that UPM, based on them, would immediately reduce its investment in graphic paper in the arrangement. However, UPM brings about 3.7 Mt of annual capacity to the JV, while SAPPI brings about 2.0 Mt. It’s unlikely that Sappi’s mills are in much better shape than UPM’s. They also contribute a couple of single-machine sites, which are likely to be the first in the firing line. Of course, UPM has them too.

6 Likes

Here are also Antti’s comments on this upcoming joint venture between UPM and Sappi. :slight_smile:

UPM and Sappi intend to establish a joint venture for graphic papers. In our opinion, the arrangement is strategically sound, as it reduces the company’s dependence on a structurally declining paper market with weak prospects. A larger company also finds it easier to defend its efficiency in shrinking markets. However, UPM was unable to secure particularly favorable terms in the arrangement despite its market-leading position; instead, we believe it is a very balanced merger. The arrangement does not cause immediate changes to our forecasts for UPM’s coming years or our view of the company, as the share of paper businesses in the stock’s value is moderate, and the arrangement is not expected to be completed until the end of 2026. Furthermore, we do not consider the competition authorities’ positive view of the arrangement to be certain at this stage.

15 Likes

UPM invests in domestic logistics

UPM is replacing the foreign wagon capacity of its timber transports with domestic ones by purchasing raw timber wagons manufactured in Pieksämäki from VR FleetCare. The new wagon fleet will transport approximately one-third of UPM Forest’s raw timber transports by rail. The new fleet will gradually replace the foreign wagon fleet that UPM has used in Finland since 2023.

The new wagons are SNPS wagons suitable for timber transport, which will be built at the Pieksämäki workshop. In connection with the wagon purchase, UPM is also buying the maintenance of the wagons from VR FleetCare.

13 Likes

This would probably not be a new situation for UPM, as Tervasaari’s PK7 was once sold to Billerud and continued operations on the same site for a few more years.

Will we still see the acquisition of wood chip wagons? Wood chips have been transported to Kaukas more regularly from Kajaani and previously also from Aittaluoto, Pori=Seikku and Lieksa, using those gost wagons. And would VR have any surplus domestic traffic wagons, as some of those seem to be moving in Stora Enso’s logistics now.

And will other forest companies also start acquiring their own wagons? Well, in Finnish, that means that with the forest companies’ own wagons, traction services can be acquired from others, not just VR. Currently, Fenniarail has about four locomotives tied up in UPM’s raw timber logistics daily, and ArcticRail has one. (Regarding the latter, news could soon be expected on whether an official agreement will follow the three-month pilot, which started around the turn of September/October.)

And those so-called gost wagons currently in use could be used until the end of 2028. Why were alternative solutions demanded now?

When UPM sold its packaging material business to Billerud in 2012, the same pattern was also in Pietarsaari in addition to Tervasaari. In Pietarsaari, UPM produces pulp, and on the same plot, Billerud still makes kraft paper and sack paper.

3 Likes

In that UPM/Sappi arrangement, the same pattern emerges in Kymi. UPM produces pulp, and the new JV makes fine paper next door. Of course, the Kymi pulp mill can also dry its entire production and sell it to the market if local demand were to shrink.

1 Like

In Nordland, the same applies, paper machine 2 remains with UPM, while PM1 and PM4 transfer to the JV.