Chief Analyst Antti just released a fresh company report on UPM. ![]()
We reiterate our Add recommendation for UPM and lower our target price to EUR 29.00 (previously EUR 30.00) in line with negative forecast changes. UPM’s Q4 report materialized the disappointment risk associated with the short-term outlook, as the overall market situation has remained challenging. The stock is not cheap in the short term, but in our view, a 5-6% dividend yield and significant room for improvement in a better cycle still make UPM’s return expectation barely sufficient.
Quoted from the report:
UPM’s balance sheet-based P/B ratio of 1.3x (2024e) is reasonable in our opinion, considering the company’s long-term ROE target of 10% and our view on the earning potential of the company’s balance sheet (cf. reported ROE % for 2016-2024 has been slightly below the target). The P/B is also well over 10% below its medium-term median.