Astra Space’s closing price (July 10, 2023) was $0.4020. The company published two SEC filing reports on July 10, 2023. According to these, the company plans to implement a reverse stock split at a 1:15 ratio and a share issuance [1].
Another blow in the risky game of the satellite market:
https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1679259256107745288
The hardware is insured, of course, but building and launching a replacement is a multi-year project. Additionally, if the insurance company ends up footing the bill ($420 million claim), satellite insurance premiums will spike for years to come, as it’s no surprise to anyone that insurance companies don’t like to operate at a loss…
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BlackSky Technology GAAP EPS of -$0.24 misses by $0.12, revenue of $19.33M misses by $1.22M
Aug. 09, 2023 7:04 AM ETBlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY)By: Pranav Ghumatkar, SA News Editor
- BlackSky Technology press release (NYSE:BKSY): Q2 GAAP EPS of -$0.24 misses by $0.12.
- Revenue of $19.33M (+28.0% Y/Y) misses by $1.22M.
- Imagery & software analytical services revenue grew 51% over the prior year quarter
- Cost of sales related to imagery & software analytical services improved to 23% from 34% in the prior year quarter.
- Outlook: BlackSky is actively working with several major customers on a number of sizable contracts and given the variability on timing, the Company is widening the range of its 2023 revenue outlook to between $84 million and $96 million. Expectations for full year 2023 capital expenditures remain between $40 million and $45 million.
It was a miss, and they lowered the full-year outlook/lower end from 90 → 84 million. Not great, not terrible. The size of the loss is a bit concerning; I’ll have to listen to the explanations from the call. I don’t really care about the stock’s movements as such, but if growth weakens, that is worrying. The shares will stay in my portfolio, and I’ll continue monitoring.
A lukewarm result from Planet. The market rewarded it with a drop of over 6%, ah.
Planet Labs Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.07 beats by $0.01, revenue of $53.8M misses by $0.34M
Sep. 07, 2023 4:11 PM ETPlanet Labs PBC (PL)By: Urvi Shah, SA News Editor3 Comments
- Planet Labs press release (NYSE:PL): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.07 beats by $0.01.
- Revenue of $53.8M (+10.9% Y/Y) misses by $0.34M.
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Astra Space’s stock price fell below one dollar on October 11, 2023.
The company’s stock price had been below one dollar before, until the company implemented a reverse stock split in September [1] by combining 15 shares into one, with the aim of raising the stock price to the level required by Nasdaq Global Market rules [2] ($1 minimum bid price).
Astra Space entered Nasdaq in 2021 by merging with the Holiciti SPAC. At that time, the merged company’s pro-forma enterprise value was approximately $2.1 billion [3]. The company’s market capitalization reached approximately $4.6 billion on February 8, 2021.
In its Q2 2023 report on August 14, 2023 [4], the company estimated that its cash position (Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities) would be approximately $15-$20 million at the end of Q3 2023. In the same context, the company estimated that there would be approximately 280-290 million shares at the end of Q3, which corresponds to about 18.7-19.3 million post-split shares. If the number of shares were currently within that estimated range, the company’s market capitalization at a share price of one dollar would be approximately $18.7-$19.3 million. Assuming the company’s cash position is now about $15 million, the company’s enterprise value (EV) would thus be estimated at approximately $3.7-$4.3 million.
The company’s value has thus dropped to a small fraction in just over two years. It will be interesting to see what happens to the company during the remainder of the year. At the end of September, 1,684,645 of the company’s shares were sold short (short interest) [5].
Investing in the company has been a rather educational experience and an expensive adventure so far. We shall see what the future brings in that regard. 
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Astra defaulted on its loans and warned of approaching insolvency. Bankruptcy/restructuring ahead?
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Making money from rocket launches in a world where SpaceX is the competitor is very, very difficult. Even Rocket Lab is facing challenges, and they have at least successfully launched dozens of times. Astra had its chance, but too many rockets ended up in the ocean along with their payloads, so I already consider them ripe for bankruptcy. Some other player will then come and pick up any potentially useful pieces from the bankruptcy estate, and that’s that. Just typical startup life; you can’t always win, not even every time.
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BlackSky released its Q3 results yesterday. It contained both good and weak parts. On the positive side, the company is on its way toward positive cash flow, and on the weak side, growth fell slightly short of targets. The revenue forecast for the rest of the year was narrowed slightly. The market reacted relatively neutrally, and the stock fell “only” 4%, which is a quite normal day for this ticker. Over the last 6 months, the stock has moved $1.17 → $2.22 → $1.12 → $1.5 → $1.08 and ended yesterday at a price of $1.15.
- BlackSky Technology press release (NYSE:BKSY): Q3 GAAP EPS of $0.00 beats by $0.13.
- Revenue of $21.26M (+25.5% Y/Y) misses by $1.23M.
- Adjusted EBITDA loss for the third quarter of 2023 was $0.4 million, compared to an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $6.6 million in the prior year quarter.
- As of September 30, 2023, cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investments totaled $51.5 million. Capital expenditures for the third quarter of 2023 were $35.9 million.
- Outlook: The Company is narrowing the range of its 2023 revenue outlook to be between $84 million and $90 million vs. consensus of $87.07M, representing a 33% increase over 2022 revenue. In addition, the Company expects capital expenditures for the full year 2023 to now be between $48 million and $54 million driven by the timing of payments on the Gen-3 constellation.
Conference call transcript:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4649213-blacksky-technology-inc-bksy-q3-2023-earnings-call-transcript
I’m in with a relatively solid position of 8,500 shares bought (too early). Here’s a quick analysis of the company.
Strengths:
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Strongly growing market. At least that’s what I’ve convinced myself, for example, based on an article about space and satellite technology in Hesari (Helsingin Sanomat). I’ve linked it here before; I can’t find it right now.
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The unstable global situation and wars increase the demand for imaging services.
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Even though it’s an ex-SPAC, it has real, working products, i.e., satellites in the sky as well as imaging and analytics services.
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The company also has growing sales. Revenue is currently projected to grow well over 100 million next year, and the company should reach positive cash flow. Positive adjusted EBITDA is projected for Q4, but these are in the same category as “fake weights”—they look good but don’t really carry much weight.
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Barriers to entry are very high, and there are relatively few players.
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Profitability is okay. Although, given the difficulty of the industry, one would wish it were much higher.
Weaknesses:
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The industry in general requires fairly substantial investments. New satellites must be launched regularly, or the fleet will become obsolete.
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Space is hard. Setbacks happen no matter how well-designed everything is. A launch vehicle can explode, satellites can break during transit or in space, and they cannot be repaired.
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Most customers are public sector defense organizations. You can secure good, long-term contracts with them, but procurement processes are long and you have to know how to bid correctly.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/08/satellite-imagery-blacksky-ekes-out-first-quarterly-profit.html
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Well, Astra is trying to dodge bankruptcy, but it looks like investors are still going to get their fingers badly burned.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/09/astra-founders-offer-to-take-company-private.html
Those trading in failing companies can smile, though, as the offered price is over a 100% premium compared to yesterday’s price…
I read through BlackSky’s Q3 report and it looks good. The improved margin in particular is manna. I wonder if they’ll already hit a positive EPS figure in the final quarter? This chart shows that sales expenses are not growing in proportion to sales, but have remained nearly constant throughout the year. Considering even the recent inflationary spike, it’s safe to say that real money is finally starting to hit the bottom line.
Source: https://ir.blacksky.com/news-events/presentations
Then there’s this EOCL contract, which is not only a potential gold mine but also a massive risk. That $1B is the estimated revenue over 10 years, assuming all five option years are exercised as planned following the 5-year contract period. What the revenue for that 5-year contract period actually is isn’t entirely certain, but if I’m reading this correctly, its value is at least $85.5M, of which $71.7M is allocated to the first two years.
This figure obviously doesn’t wow you compared to the $1B, but with $71.7M covering roughly 35% of 2023-2024 revenue (approx. $86M for 2023 and if 2024 is ~$115M, totaling ~$201M), it is certainly the largest single customer. I wonder what the payments look like for the following 3-year contract period? Perhaps the customer is willing to pay upfront because of the costs associated with satellite launches and manufacturing—i.e., growing the constellation. Will only $14.1M be paid over the next 3 years? There’s a lot the presentation doesn’t reveal. Maybe that $1B is a theoretical possibility if the customer increases its order 12-fold during the option years, or something?
And then, of course, it’s possible the customer won’t exercise the option years and might get a better offer from Maxar, for example, and BlackSky’s total slice of the pie from this deal would stay at that $85.5M. Who knows?
Source: https://ir.blacksky.com/news-events/presentations
In any case, if they reach positive cash flow during 2024, it will be an extremely impressive achievement in this industry.
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BlackSky is participating in the Dubai Airshow, which has a lot of defense industry representation. Hopefully, they will get new leads and deals from there.
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There’s a short Newsweek news item from the Dubai arms fair. U.S. products seemed to be the main attraction, which is naturally a positive tailwind for BlackSky. As a side note, Russia didn’t manage to sell anything and they weren’t able to present their products in the main pavilion. 
Regarding BlackSky’s core idea of delivering data to the customer as quickly as possible, I agree that it’s a winning strategy. Now the delivery time has been squeezed to 90 minutes, which is incredibly fast compared to previous years. For example, NASA currently offers 3-5h delivery times, provided that latency is not a critical factor.
I would say that BlackSky must invest not only in imaging satellites but also in the data transfer bandwidth from satellites to the ground. This will be key to reducing latency.
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New bigger deal for BlackSky:
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Ast Spacemobile is taking steps in its commercialization phase. With Vodafone, a joint venture to bring direct-to-cell service to the European market.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250302001120/en/Vodafone-and-AST-SpaceMobile-Sign-Agreement-to-Create-European-Direct-To-Device-Satellite-Service-Provider
Vodafone has also been active in testing and marketing satellites.
https://x.com/VodafoneGroup/status/1884893758098899347
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The company made a loss and its result fell short of expectations, but BlackSky successfully launched a new generation satellite that exceeded customer expectations. The company received over $150 million worth of new contracts, which increased the order book to approximately $390 million.
Investors were disappointed, however, and the stock is plummeting in premarket.
https://x.com/Earnings_Time/status/1897621250735743110
The company’s own take on the results
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Nice when the largest position makes big moves.
The past result “shouldn’t have” mattered much at this stage, as its weakness was known beforehand. The company’s recently launched gen3 satellite (and its successors) should generate significant growth in the future. Blacksky predicts it will launch a total of 8 new gen3 satellites this year. And if I understood correctly, four of them will bring the service offering to a sufficient level, and these should be operational by H2.
The forecast was a slight disappointment for me, especially if the actual outcome stays near the lower end. At the upper end, it would already be a good performance. There are many contracts, but soon money needs to be generated from them, instead of kicking the can down the road.
“BlackSky expects full year 2025 revenue to be between $125 million and $142 million, and full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be between $14 million and $22 million.”
Update on the situation:
Trump has blocked satellite imagery firm Maxar from delivering data to Ukraine. Apparently, the decision concerns a free image bank offered to Ukraine, and Ukraine has the option to purchase images from Maxar. However, I couldn’t find more detailed information on this at the moment. I argue that such a decision has a negative impact on Blacksky’s international business. Defense organizations do not want to risk a government blocking access to critical intelligence systems. How will Blacksky convince customers that they can take the risk?
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Redwire reported increased revenue, but also larger losses and a weakened order backlog.
However, management emphasized strengthening the core business, the role of acquisitions, and innovation in maintaining competitiveness. Stable growth is expected for 2025.
https://x.com/SpaceInvestor_/status/1899198019813449769
Redwire’s official material:
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Rocket Lab’s first quarter went well; for example, revenue rose to near record levels. The growth likely reflects successes in both its launch vehicle and space systems businesses, and the company believes strong development will continue into the second quarter.
In recent years, the company has expanded through acquisitions and new market areas, such as Europe. This has apparently strengthened Rocket Lab’s position as a diversified and integrated space technology company.
To support its growth, Rocket Lab plans to establish a new holding company structure that better aligns with its business objectives and, in particular, U.S. security requirements. The goal is to streamline bureaucratic processes and support the company’s growth in both commercial and governmental sectors.
https://x.com/dailydosebuz/status/1920576826834895356
Company Materials
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Blacksky published its Q1 report yesterday. The market responded with a 30% increase in share price.
" First Quarter Financial Highlights:
- Revenue of $29.5 million, up 22% from the prior year quarter
- Over $130 million in new contract bookings
- Backlog grows $104 million, or 40%, from the prior quarter to a total of $366 million
- Cash balance increased 43% from the prior quarter"
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250508909866/en/BlackSky-Reports-First-Quarter-2025-Results
The investment thesis is based on a 3rd generation satellite constellation, the first of which is already in operation in orbit. Additional satellites will be launched as they are completed, and revenue from these is expected already in Q3 this year.
The company is not yet a cash cow, but its technology and service are certainly in demand in today’s world. The service promise is high-resolution images from any corner of the planet quickly, and content can be identified using artificial intelligence.
" Net Loss
Net loss for the first quarter of 2025 was $12.8 million, compared to a net loss of $15.8 million for the first quarter of 2024. The year-over-year improvement in net loss of $3.0 million was primarily due to lower depreciation and amortization expenses and changes in the gain/(loss) on derivatives, which are driven by fluctuations in the Company’s equity warrants and other equity instruments that are measured at fair value and driven by the Company’s common stock price.
Adjusted EBITDA(2)
Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2025 was a loss of $0.6 million, compared to an adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 million for the first quarter of 2024. The year-over-year decrease of $2.0 million was primarily due to overhead expenses related to the recently acquired LeoStella operations."
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