Sanoma - undervalued dividend machine?

Petri has likely updated Sanoma’s company report from Torstaikallio. :slight_smile:

We have reviewed our forecasts following Sanoma’s Capital Markets Day and updated financial targets. Our forecasts were well in line with the current targets, and the forecast changes we made primarily focused on Media Finland’s medium-term forecasts, which are affected by the opening of the gambling advertising market, presumably in 2027. In our view, the stock’s valuation is attractive relative to our estimated earnings growth in the coming years, so we raise our recommendation to Buy (previously Add) and reiterate our target price of 11.3 euros.

Quoted from the report:

The strongest earnings growth will be in 2026, when we expect Learning’s revenue growth and a clear improvement in profitability to elevate its earnings to a new level. Even after a clear improvement in profitability, we expect Learning’s revenue growth to keep it in clear earnings growth. For Media Finland, we expect a slight improvement in operational efficiency in its historical manner, but we forecast a clear increase in its earnings level in 2028, as gambling advertising brings high-margin growth throughout the year. Our 2028e forecast includes roughly EUR 16 million in growth in advertising sales (incl. other advertising growth), so our forecast is conservative relative to the company’s target level. This is due to forecast risks related to market size and the company’s market position for now.

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