@Sauli_Vilen, thank you for the good analysis. What do you think, can those storms in the United States explain Sampo’s decline? Pyysing and members of the sister forum had at least been pondering this.
An exceptional buying opportunity in Sampo. Situations like the mindless selling of the past few days are rarely seen in Sampo. In my opinion, self-driving cars won’t affect insurance companies much at all for several years. There might even be a slight risk premium added to the pricing in case the algorithm is poor or there’s a technical glitch. An insurance-populist discount campaign across the pond won’t affect Sampo. The atmosphere in the “first-class carriage” will likely remain good going forward. Sampo isn’t super cheap, but you don’t get truly high quality for a low price.
Who knows if Purra will patch up the state treasury’s situation with a slightly larger dividend withdrawal from Solidium, and secondly, space might be needed in Solidium’s portfolio for companies that are quite necessary for promoting national security—which owning Sampo doesn’t really contribute to. Well, it might just be wishful thinking about a more useful Solidium portfolio, or then an accurate guess🧐
Here are Sale’s comments on the Q4 report of Sampo’s peer Gjensidige. 
Sampo’s Norwegian peer Gjensidige published its Q4 result on Thursday, which was clearly below consensus. The weakness was mainly due to one-off items, and operationally the quarter went well. The report is unlikely to lead to major forecast changes in the market, as also indicated by the very mild share price reaction. In our view, the report was slightly positive for Sampo.
Here are Sauli’s preview comments as Sampo releases its Q4 results on Thursday, Feb 5.
The company is reporting yet another massive result thanks to strong investment returns. Operationally, for the first time in a long while, the quarter has been a bit more challenging due to storms in the Nordics and intensified competition in the UK. We will go through Sampo’s results on Sampo Live on inderesTV starting at 8:20 AM.
An interesting nuance is that Andreas Brandstetter, the Group CEO of (Austrian) Uniqa, is being proposed for Sampo’s board — Astrid Stange is already on the board, who has long experience in the German insurance market (AXA, Element).
If one reads into this, one might wonder if Sampo has ambitions in Germany (Uniqa is (no longer) active in Germany, mainly in Eastern Europe besides Austria). Expansion into Eastern Europe (e.g., Poland) is probably ruled out, as it would be quite a “conflict of interest” with Uniqa’s business operations.
Sampo to Germany then?
EDIT: below is the development of If’s insurance results in Germany…
Back on my feet again and soon we’ll be looking at the results together on the live stream! 
If any questions for the CFO interview come to mind, btw, feel free to send them in. We’ll at least be asking about Lemonade and FSD.
Update to Sampo’s distribution policy
Sampo Group is updating its distribution policy to continue to enable an attractive combination of dividends and share buybacks as the company focuses purely on P&C insurance. Starting from 2026, Sampo intends to gradually supplement its progressive dividend with share buybacks such that, in a typical year, buybacks represent at most one-third of the distribution based on the operating result. The update only concerns the allocation of capital to be returned and has no impact on the total amount of capital returned to shareholders.
So here are the results. The company is probably so boring that no one bothered to post them fresh. 
Sampo Group’s results for 2025
- Comparable gross written premium growth was 8 per cent, supported by strong performance in personal and SME customers in both the Nordics and the UK.
- The underwriting result grew by 12 per cent at constant exchange rates to EUR 1,485 million, and the Group’s combined ratio improved by 0.7 percentage points to 83.6 per cent.
- Operating earnings per share strengthened by 7 per cent following the growth in the underwriting result.
- Reported earnings per share rose by 65 per cent, boosted by a net gain of EUR 540 million recorded from the Group’s NOBA investment.
- The Solvency II ratio was 174 per cent, taking into account the proposed dividend, and the financial leverage ratio was 23.6 per cent.
- The Board’s proposal for the base dividend per share is EUR 0.36, representing a growth of 6 per cent.
- Sampo expects to achieve insurance revenue of EUR 9.5-9.8 billion and an underwriting result of EUR 1,485 - 1,600 million in 2026.
”Sampo consistently continued to execute its organic growth strategy in 2025. Our strong result demonstrates how our scale and unique market position, as well as our investments in digital sales and customer service capabilities, are paying off. In 2026, Sampo is well-positioned to achieve its set financial targets and continue to provide sustainable value creation for its shareholders,” says Sampo’s Group CEO Morten Thorsrud.
Oh look, the classic way to mask the weaknesses of the final quarter (due to storms?) by focusing on the full-year result instead of the essential Q4 
I have stated before that the most important thing is to look ahead; meaning Sampo is only forecasting steady revenue, at least for the beginning of the year, due to wintry weather. For me, the past only serves as a reference for management’s reliable performance. And the combined ratio was indeed better than expected last quarter, which is why the result exceeded expectations. The performance was anything but weak.
Here are Sale’s quick comments on the Q4 results.
Sampo’s Q4 results released this morning were slightly better than expected, as the impact of storms on the results was lower than anticipated. Capital distribution was roughly in line with expectations, and the company also clarified its capital distribution policy. The guidance was a disappointment, especially regarding earnings, and we believe this will overshadow the strong Q4 result. In the conference call starting at 10:30, the focus will largely revolve around the outlook.
Not Morten’s first interview on inderesTV, but his first as Sampo’s CEO!
Interview in English.
Naturally, I asked the most important thing first…
00:00 Dividend policy
02:35 Results
03:30 Growth
05:05 Guidance
06:19 Competition
07:55 Lemonade
I don’t quite get this comment. In terms of presentation, the Q4 reporting is perfectly in line with previous Q4 reports, and those Q4 figures are also very clearly highlighted in the release and the report. Furthermore, Q4 wasn’t even weak in any way, but rather better than expected (read e.g. Sauli’s quick comment: “The Q4 result published by Sampo this morning was slightly better than expected, as the impact of the storms on the result was smaller than anticipated.”).
A question related to this previous reflection was asked not only in the Inderes interview but also in the conference call at 14:54 (answer at 17:43–21:20). Largely similar reflections in both, but the topic is clearly of interest.
Report updated, target unchanged at €10.0 & Accumulate
Expected return just about sufficient
We consider it justified to price Sampo in line with high-quality Nordic insurance peers (P/E 16-18x). Based on realized earnings, we believe Sampo’s stock is fully priced, and in our view, there is no room for multiples to rise (P/E ~18x). Consequently, Sampo’s expected return must come entirely from earnings growth and dividends. We forecast the average operational EPS for the next three years to grow by approximately 10%, and on top of this, investors receive a growing dividend yield of over 4%. Overall, we believe Sampo’s stock is correctly priced at the current level, but the attractive earnings growth outlook combined with a steadily growing dividend offers a sufficient expected return. Although the company’s earnings outlook for the coming years is undeniably very good, the current valuation level sets the bar high and there is no room for slippage. As we already stated in our previous report, the discussion about the threats posed by self-driving cars to traditional insurance companies has ramped up too much, and we are not particularly worried about the matter in Sampo’s case.
On an annual level, the results were very good in my opinion, and the guidance was typical Sampo. What I think received relatively little attention (and it could be normal variation, especially when entering new markets) was Hastings’ increased expense ratio for 2025, which was still heading in the completely wrong direction in Q4. My expectation has been a “parade march” for Sampo into the UK insurance market (due to excellent IT systems, pricing expertise, low fixed costs, etc.), but competitors seem to have woken up. I will continue to follow Hastings’ success, and yes, this is a bit annoying.
At least the UK headcount has been expanded, but gross written premiums haven’t shot up in the same proportion, at least. Well, I’ll keep monitoring.
OP’s chief analyst Antti Saari discussed Sampo’s performance in a video
Sampo once again succeeded in delivering a strong result, even though the conditions during the quarter were challenging. The company’s new distribution policy supports its quality label as a stable long-term dividend grower, bringing the model closer to American dividend aristocrats. OP’s chief analyst Antti Saari reviews the company’s Q4 results and guidance in the video.
