Sauli’s preview mentality was correct, but the actual figures hit different spots than assumed in the preview.
Underwriting €368M vs Inderes’ 327 and consensus of 341.
Combined ratio 84.4% vs preview of 85.6%.
Insurance service result €2,363M when preview was 2,273, growth of 8%.
Operational EPS +19% RoEOF 32.5%.
This is not “in line with expectations” but a clear beat that exceeds the upper end of the consensus range. An exceptionally strong operational performance relative to expectations, if investment returns weren’t overshadowing it.
The loss of -€46M obviously looks ugly. But NOBA -€235M and the fixed income portfolio -€156M are changes in market value, not a weakening of the business. Only €482M of NOBA remains and Sampo intends to sell more, meaning this volatility is on its way out.
Buyback program €350M vs anticipated €150M. So more than double, and Sampo is clearly committed to a line of high capital distribution. The lower end of the guidance was raised (€1,525–1,625M underwriting) already in the first quarter of the year, which is an exceptionally strong message from management regarding the performance for the rest of the year. The Danish court case fits within existing reserves and no separate provision will be made for Q2. Topdanmark synergies are being heavily front-loaded: 2026 raised from 55 → €105M, 2027 from 87 → €125M — about €50M of additional potential for the current year from synergies alone, and ahead of schedule at that.
Private customers in the Nordics pulled through with the old formula again: growth +5.7%, the segment’s expense ratio improved to 21.4%, and claims were kept in check. Norway +13%, driven by price increases. Hastings’ combined ratio of 90.3% left me wondering, but the number of contracts +13% YoY provides a good option when pricing eventually turns. The moat as a whole strengthened in light of this report — scale (Topdanmark synergies ahead of schedule), pricing power (Nordics), and conservative reserving practices.
Personally, I’m holding onto my shares tightly and will add if the price drops. Sampo is now a purer insurance company than ever, the moat is strengthening, capital is being returned to owners at a ~5% annual rate, and on top of that comes organic 7–10% EPS growth. This report is one of the best in a long time.
My target price is around €9.85. The reasoning: the guidance raise + front-loading of synergies will push op. EPS for 2026 above the previous Inderes estimate of €0.52, so a P/E of ~18x fits the quality and provides a healthy update. This gives about 5–10% price return potential + ~5% cash yield when capital returns are taken into account. In a compounder story, this is exactly what you pay for. Uncertainty is brought by the final cost impact of the Danish court decision, and although Sampo’s current assessment is that reserves cover it, clarifying the state’s distribution of liability may take time and bring noise in either direction in the interim.
The fluctuation in investment returns is exactly what Sauli rightly warned about. The operational core is in diamond condition, guidance is rising, buybacks are doubling compared to the preview, and synergies are coming in ahead of schedule. If someone is selling today, I’m happy to put my hand under it. 
