Electricity Sales Contracts and Their Prices

I called them and it can start in 90 days at the latest. They have a price meeting tomorrow, so if you call tomorrow, you can get this price. For solar panels, they take a 0.3 cent margin. With that price, the price could be locked in until the end of February. Isn’t this a pretty good deal?

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I didn’t take that. I thought I’d wait another 2-3 weeks, then lock in a 6-month contract to start mid-September.
Futures say that:
|Q4 2025|5.57 c/kWh|
|Q1 2026|7.51 c/kWh|

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I wonder if it’s the case with these electricity contracts that the electricity sales company has a bit more ability than an individual consumer to estimate the future price of electricity. The electricity company calculates a price, adds a safety factor and profit margin. Therefore, a spot market electricity contract always wins.

For the past 12 months, my electricity price has been around 5 cents, including the margin. Of course, the quality of life has been compromised to the extent that the electric sauna does not heat up when the electricity price is high.

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It has been seen even in the history of recent years that a spot electricity contract does not always win. Probability calculations are, of course, always on the side of the spot electricity contract.

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With low electricity consumption, basic fees quite often decide the game. With my consumption site’s electricity usage profile (not much flexibility and electricity consumption is negligible in summer), spot electricity would have won in one year. Savings of approx. 3-4 €/year.

Could it be that a spot electricity contract wins most often?

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I pay electricity bills in three different locations, and all of them have spot electricity. I can no longer bother adjusting consumption according to the price, because in two out of three places, the largest part of the bill comes from transmission and basic fees.

Järvi-Suomen Energia announced a new transmission price list starting from 1.7.2025.

General transmission 3x25A basic fee 44.44€/month
transmission 5.14 cents/kWh
electricity tax 2.827515 cents/kWh

With zero consumption, the annual bill is thus 533.28€, and to this are added the electricity seller’s basic fees, which amount to approx. 50€/year. So, almost 600€ per year just for electricity to be available. And thus an additional 7.97 cents per kilowatt, meaning even if the electricity price were negative, it would still cost at least 7 cents/kWh.

The actual electricity portion of the annual bill is almost insignificant at current prices. In this case, it’s about a cottage that is in use from May to early October (unheated over the winter). The actual heating is with wood; electricity is used to maintain a basic temperature of approx. 16 degrees during the early and late season. Especially early May was cold, so more electricity was consumed than usual.

In May, 313kWh appears to have been consumed, the price of which seems to be 18.6€, which apparently includes the basic fee (the electricity seller’s app I use doesn’t show this in more detail, and I can’t be bothered to dig up older bills). For that month’s consumption, the transmission company thus charges an additional approx. 24.95€ (+the current basic fee, which I don’t remember now, but something in the order of 40€ in any case). If I calculated correctly, only slightly over 20% of May’s total bill is the electricity seller’s share, and this is likely the largest monthly bill of this season, unless late summer is chilly, in which case electricity will be consumed again when no one is at the cottage.

In my other locations, that ratio is not quite as bad, because consumption is higher and year-round, but those basic fees + transmission fees + electricity tax are often the largest part of the total bills. The average price of spot electricity at 5 or 10 cents/kWh does not significantly affect the final outcome. If consumption were to be scheduled, the greatest benefit would come from savings in the transmission portion.

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The differences are indeed huge. In Tampere, the corresponding specs are €5.33/month and 3.20 cents/kWh.

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There’s Elenia’s transmission fee.. your transmission fees still look cheap.. The basic fee is quite expensive in that Järvivesi electricity :slight_smile:
image

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I would much rather pay a higher transmission fee instead of a high basic fee. Then at least I would have the opportunity to influence the amount of the bill myself. A few years ago, that basic fee was still 20€/month, but then came the parliament’s “wise” decision to improve security of supply. :frowning:

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The threat of war and war were required for the spot electricity contract not to win. Now that the wires to the neighbor’s master’s electricity and gas network are cut, it’s hard to see again what kind of shock could overturn this statistical trend in favor of fixed-price contracts?

I myself, of course, switched to spot electricity only after the beginning of the war, when my own 4.9X fixed-price contract ended. While waiting for those again. Unlikely to happen with the current production capacity.

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Electricity prices were already at a high level in 2021. And specifically for reasons other than those caused by the war. It was comfortable to live with a fixed-term contract even then.

Putin’s threats indeed started to raise prices already in 2021. This is what I referred to with the threat of war.

The war started in 2014 and the major offensive in 2022.

Statistics Finland summarizes the rise in electricity prices in 2021 as follows: “There were many reasons for the sharp rise in the market price of electricity. In addition to the increase in fuel and emission allowance prices, Nordic water reservoirs were low at the same time, and wind power was less available than usual. Electricity consumption, in turn, was increased by a very cold December and economic activity, which has been growing since the worst shock caused by the coronavirus.”

Looking at the overall situation of recent years, I haven’t been particularly sad that fixed-price electricity contracts have become popular in the property that consumes the most electricity (even though the expected value has certainly not been a saving compared to market-price electricity). Nor have I been sad that I prefer interest rate hedging for housing loans.

Similarly, in my property that consumes the least electricity, the size of the monthly fee practically determines the name of the electricity seller and the type of electricity contract.

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Finally, the spot electricity price is starting to “bite” and May’s electricity bill was a mere 3.45 c / kWh :zap:

Consumption is also falling at the same rate:

  • March → April → May
  • 1833 kWh → 1495 kWh → 1344 kWh
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It has been quite cheap for a long time. My own figures are below. Margin included.

image

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Relatively speaking, I mean :slight_smile: Even though early year prices were significantly cheaper compared to fixed (avg 6.90 c), now even the spot price’s internal price was cheaper in May as there was a drop from April’s 6.99 c → May’s 3.45 c, which is a whopping -51%!

All in all - I’ve been very satisfied with spot electricity (no consumption impact, etc.)

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IMG_6436
The following average prices have been squeezed out of spot electricity here.

Regards, electric car night charger

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The price of spot electricity is cheap because demand is low due to the industrial recession. If the economy ever picks up again, electricity will be expensive in Finland. Likewise, when connections to Sweden improve.

By any measure, electricity in Finland has not been expensive except momentarily, and even if industry were to start growing, electricity here in the Nordic countries is still cheap compared to the rest of Europe… Could you somehow justify your claim?

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In the yellow press, agendas are occasionally pushed, claiming that electricity prices in Finland were sometimes 9x higher than in Sweden.

Here is a price level comparison produced by the European Union, where Finland is in the middle tier:

image

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_price_statistics

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