SAAB’s HX bid stated that the operating costs of the 64 fighters offered to Finland would be less than 250 million euros per year. Extrapolating from that, operating 100-150 fighters would cost Ukraine 400-600 million per year. Well, a memorandum of understanding and orders have not yet been placed, let alone any concrete information about the delivery schedule.
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Without taking any stance on the numbers, this is directly proportional to the number of flight hours. They are not necessarily a complete one-to-one match between the bid submitted to Finland (“in a past world”, btw) and the real world experienced by Ukraine. Of course, one can form some ballpark estimate from that. A more precise estimate can probably be achieved by using a cost estimate per flight hour. Various public views on the cost of flight hours can be found online.
Commenting on the news itself, I can say that for years I have refrained from investing directly in Saab, as this almost existential Gripen question has been hanging in the air. Now, this reason can perhaps be left behind - although the stock price has already multiplied in a short time. Failed risk avoidance this time then 
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Well, that went nicely, I wonder if anyone was surprised by the forecasts being exceeded…
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In Finland, many have surely refrained from investing in Saab as the image given by many journalists of Saab is that of a “small crisis company” that has difficulties selling products, and especially that no one wants to buy its Fighters. One glance at the stock chart from recent years shows how far off that perception has been.
As was easily predictable, repeating last year’s pattern, Saab revised its guidance:
“Outlook 2025 upgraded to: organic sales growth to be between 20-24%, compared to the previous outlook of organic sales growth between 16-20%. Reiterating EBIT growth to be higher than the organic sales growth and operational cash flow to be positive for the full year.”
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@Renato_E_Rios has given his quick comment on Saab’s Q3. 
Saab published its Q3 report at 07.30 CEST. Order intake, revenue growth, and profitability indicate continuous strong demand and disciplined execution across all business areas. Besides the very strong profitability of Dynamics, there were few major surprises. Management seems confident about the rest of the year and raised its guidance. Dynamics’ profitability points to solid order book conversion and volume absorption, which, if continued, will support operational leverage in Q4.
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Last Thursday, @Renato_E_Rios participated in Uppesittarkväll to present Saab as a case! For those who want to check out the presentation, here is a direct link to the broadcast: Uppesittarkväll 23/10 från Inderes Event Studio
Renato starts at approximately 2h 20 minutes.
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@Renato_E_Rios has made a new company report after the Q3 releases.
Q3 was a very good quarter for Saab. Market demand remains strong, and the company’s order intake will continue to benefit from this. The company delivered results ahead of our expectations, which supports our view that the business is developing well based on fundamentals. We are raising our Q4 and 2025 revenue forecasts in most divisions, as well as moderately our profitability forecasts, reflecting stronger order book execution and improved visibility. However, we believe that the current valuation includes more than the fundamentals can justify, and we reiterate our sell recommendation with a target price of SEK 310.
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Hello! Agreed. We believe that it would be great for Saab’s Aeronautics division if a contract of that size materialized. Fundamentally, we think such a contract would significantly improve visibility on the division’s growth path and should contribute to margin stability and potentially boost it over time. On that note, the real binding constraint is Saab’s annual Gripen delivery capacity, which we estimate at ~10 units per year, together with the recipient’s ability to take aircraft given pilot availability, training, and other readiness factors.
The parties signed a letter of intent, which is not legally binding, so Ukraine has no obligation. Sweden is the contracting client, which means financing is in principle available, subject to export approvals. The Swedish government would still require payments from Ukraine, but given Ukraine’s situation, the funding arrangements should not affect timing or total volume. If the deal proceeds, we do not think that the payment mechanism between the nations should be a major concern. As mentioned above, the real constraints are Saab’s delivery capacity and the Ukrainian Air Force’s ability to absorb the aircraft. And yes, the aircraft’s operating costs should be manageable for Ukraine.
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The forecasters certainly were! The report was strong, no doubt. The business continues to develop well, in line with our understanding of the fundamentals.
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Hello again, Saab-interested community!
Yesterday late afternoon (CEST), Saab announced a ~46 MUSD (~506 MSEK) US Army order for Giraffe 1X, booked in Q3’25 and already in reported figures, with deliveries starting in 2026 to US security cooperation partners. Giraffe 1X is a short-range air defense radar for C-UAS missions, where demand remains strong, especially given recent aerial threats posed by Russia. The order is modest at ~2% of Q3 order intake and <1% of our 2025 full-year order intake estimate, so it has no bearing on our estimates. Revenue will be recognized with 2026 deliveries, so there is no effect on Q4’25 and only a limited impact on 2026 P&L. Also, given the small size, the 2026 contribution will very likely go unnoticed. More importantly, the award expands the installed base, reinforces Surveillance’s competitiveness, and in our view supports aftermarket and upgrades, improving backlog quality, conversion visibility, and lifetime value per unit while adding some margin stability.
The press release: https://www.inderes.se/releases/saab-receives-order-for-giraffe-1x-radars-from-us-army
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Hi again! Yet another small press release from Saab. Here is our short and concise take on it:
Saab received ~1 BNSEK from FMV for the serial production of launcher systems for Gripen C/D and E. The company mentions in the release that this was included as an option under an existing development and integration contract at Aeronautics with the Swedish client, so it’s not really surprising. The system carries air-to-air missiles and countermeasures pods, and adds to the Q4’25 order intake but is small compared to Aeronautics’ backlog of ~45 BNSEK and very small against the group’s ~95 BNSEK. The order reinforces our view of continued sustained demand for Aeronautics’ offering, which we believe to be fundamentally strong, but given its size, we make no changes to our estimates.
The press release: Saab receives order for launch system for Gripen from Sweden - Inderes
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The number of fighter jets for Ukraine is based on the country’s land area and operational need. In the same way that it was considered in Finland that just over 60 aircraft is an absolute minimum. Ukraine’s aircraft are planned to be produced on a Canadian production line, for which negotiations are underway.
Ukraine does not have time to wait for Belgium to agree to the confiscation of Russian assets, so the first production batch will likely be financed with a Swedish loan.
Ukraine’s Minister of Defense stated today at a press conference in Sweden that the first agreement can be signed very soon. The country is ready to send personnel for training immediately.
It’s also worth recalling WW2 again when predicting Europe’s development; at a
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Hello! I see your comparison, but Ukraine’s situation is different to Finland. Low cost drones have delivered strong results in Ukraine, which raises the ROI per euro of investment in (UAS) unmanned aerial systems and shortens lead times (order-to-delivery). That does not rule out a Gripen purchase, but it does change the near term trade off because if takes many years to get one of those aircraft delivered. Although, Sweden is discussing ways to help finance an initial Gripen batch for Ukraine, though we feel that any arrangement would still require a clear payment structure. We do not feel that it is obvious that an order will be placed soon, and if one is placed (the first batch), we expect it to be smaller than the LoI indicates.
On capacity, you are right. Everything hinges on available industrial capacity, and changes to that base require order book certainty or–how we analysts like to call it–visibility. Near term war risk supports faster capacity expansion, while uncertainty beyond the near term tempers it. In our view, capacity is being scaled with that risk in mind: quite fast, but not at the level a major escalation would require.
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Hello Saab-following investors!
Small news by the company today. Saab received a SEK 510 m order (~44 m EUR) from Denmark’s Ministry of Defense for Carl Gustaf M4 systems, including ammunition and training equipment, with deliveries in 2026 to 2028 under the Dynamics business area. The purchase comes from a long term Carl Gustaf user and follows Denmark’s adoption of the M4 in 2022, aligning with expectations for steady small and mid sized awards that sustain Dynamics’ core order flow. While modest relative to Saab’s order intake metrics (Q3 2025 ~21 bn SEK and 2025e ~95 bn SEK), the deal reinforces continuing robust demand for ground combat products. Given its limited size, the order does not prompt revisions to our estimates.
The press release: Saab receives Carl-Gustaf order from Denmark - Inderes
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Saab signs agreement with Colombia for Gripen E/F
Saab has today signed an agreement with the Colombian government and received an order for 17 Gripen E/F fighter jets. The order is valued at 3.1 billion euros and deliveries will take place between 2026 and 2032.
Wow 
This is good. I wonder if Inderes will still stick to the 310kr target price 
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We’ll see what investors think and how the stock price reacts on Monday. It’s surprisingly quiet here on the forum. Of course, it’s the weekend now. Still. According to Yle’s article:
According to Sweden’s Minister for International Development Cooperation and Foreign Trade Benjamin Dousa, this is one of the largest export agreements in Sweden’s history.
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Great news for the company, of course, and the share price will surely appreciate it. But some expectations have already been loaded into this:
Valuation multiples vs. 5-year average:
Valuation multiples from analyst forecasts for 2027
I haven’t followed the company in detail (basic news overview), but the stock doesn’t seem to be glaringly undervalued at the moment, at least by traditional metrics. Or how do you assess how the company should be valued?
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HBL: Sweden is building more submarines – they also secure Åland
According to Sweden’s Minister of Defense, the country’s submarines will defend Åland if necessary.
The manufacturer was not mentioned, but it’s hardly IKEA or Smart Eye. Big news. Again🔥
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Hey! We will do some upward revisions to the estimates by the latest in our preview for Q4. Before publishing our updated view, of course, we will also think hard and long about the value drivers and mechanics at play. The exact impact on the target price is hard to know in advance. But… stay tuned!
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Quite a group on a Canada visit, it would be surprising if no news came out from the air surveillance and fighter jet side regarding this.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/swedish-king-canada-visit-9.6971674
“…Canada would perhaps buy 32 to 40 F-35s and add 60 to 70 of the non-stealth, though far cheaper, Gripens to the RCAF fleet. The Globe and Mail is not identifying the source because they are not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.”
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