I don’t count myself among the particularly wise, but this is a crucial first A26 export deal for the company. Tenders have been lost previously because not a single submarine is completed yet, and schedules have been doubted. For example, in Canada, they were left out of the finalists. Poland will therefore become a reference export customer; the purchase price is high, but it includes support until 2038 and the leasing of an older generation submarine.
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Renato has already written about this much-discussed large order 
Saab announced that it has signed an agreement with the Polish Ministry of National Defence’s Armament Agency for three A26-type submarines, including weapons, training, and support packages, with an order value of approximately SEK 47 billion. We view the signing as moderately positive. It removes negotiation risk, and the contract value exceeds the figure previously announced by a Polish government official. The agreement strengthens Naval’s order backlog and visibility, but it is not a significant near-term earnings driver. It also reinforces our already positive view of the A26 platform and confirms its international competitiveness. We expect to make upward revisions to our forecasts no later than in connection with our Q2 earnings preview, although these will not be material enough to change our current recommendation.
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That must be the largest single trade in world history, as 47 BSEK is approximately 4.23 trillion (i.e., a thousand billion) euros.
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I came across this relatively short video regarding Odessa’s air defense against drones.
As the title suggests, the video seems like a pretty good advertisement for Saab (I don’t know if the video creators received any support from Saab).
Now, when considering the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the surrounding area, one could imagine that there might be demand for Saab’s radars. Of course, there are surely many other providers as well…
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The contract for Ukraine’s Gripen E aircraft has now been signed!
Press release from yesterday evening:
Renato’s comment today:
Since we had only partially included this unconfirmed order in our figures, the official signing will trigger upward revisions to our order intake as well as our medium- and long-term forecasts. We expect to make these changes no later than in connection with our Q2 earnings preview. The changes are material and reinforce our already positive fundamental view of the company.
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Renato also commented on EFN (in Swedish) regarding this order and the major news from Saab.
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On Friday, there was some positive, smaller-scale news from Finland regarding Saab. The Finnish Defence Forces have been authorized to procure RBS 70 NG air defense missile systems for 108 million euros. The earlier version, the RBS 70, has already been in service for a long time (ITO05 and ITO05M).
https://defmin.fi/-/puolustusministeri-hakkanen-ilmatorjunnan-alueellinen-kattavuus-vahvistuu
Finland is acquiring more short-range air defense missile systems from Sweden.
Minister of Defence Antti Häkkänen has authorized the Finnish Defence Forces to procure short-range RBS 70 NG air defense missile systems from the Swedish company Saab. The acquisition will strengthen the regional coverage of air defense throughout Finland.
The RBS 70 NG missile system is a more advanced version of the ITO05M system already in use by the Finnish Defence Forces. The features of the system to be acquired improve the capability to counter drones and manned aircraft.
The procurement includes new launchers, training equipment, and a maintenance system, and its total value excluding VAT is 108 million euros.
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NATO to purchase surveillance aircraft from SAAB, apparently to be announced at the NATO summit
https://x.com/linda414498009/status/2074191985447961086?s=46&t=UOAR__YJT3hJUdqJ5kUU4A
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Here are Renato Rios’s preview comments ahead of Saab’s Q2 results on Friday, July 17th:
Two major orders confirmed in June keep the order backlog growing, and the order momentum for 2026 is secured. As in recent quarters, the focus shifts to execution. We expect Saab to maintain its recent delivery pace, which supports broad growth across all divisions and keeps the 2027 targets achievable. Profitability should improve year-on-year, although delays in individual projects could weigh on margins. In our view, the biggest margin risk is related to the timing of deliveries, not demand. From the report, we are looking for confirmation that the delivery pace of recent quarters can be maintained as the order backlog continues to grow.
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Indeed. Saab’s press release today:
HS on this and other industrial projects announced today (no paywall):
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Here are Renato’s comments on how NATO has selected Saab’s GlobalEye system to replace its current surveillance equipment.
Saab announced that NATO has selected its GlobalEye Airborne Early Warning & Control (AEW&C) system to replace its current surveillance equipment, with the company even referring to ten aircraft. The political intent is now public, but an official contract has not been signed. We consider the selection an important strategic confirmation of GlobalEye’s competitiveness against major international alternatives. The announcement does not lead to immediate forecast changes today.
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Renato has written a comment on the frigate contract Saab received.
Saab announced that it has signed an agreement with TKMS to supply combat systems, composite structures, and sensors for four of the German Navy’s new frigates. The value of the order is approximately SEK 8.7 billion, and deliveries are scheduled for 2029–2032. We consider it moderately positive. It expands Saab’s long-term relationship with Germany, brings in a new reference customer for the export of Naval business combat systems, and includes an option right. However, in our view, the short- and medium-term financial impact is limited. The order, signed the day before tomorrow’s Q2 report, will be booked in the Q3 order intake rather than Q2. We expect it to slightly raise our medium-term forecasts, but the impact on our valuation is minor.
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Here are Renato’s quick comments on Saab’s Q2 results.
Saab’s Q2 result exceeded both our and the consensus expectations regarding revenue, operating profitability, and earnings per share. Particularly notable was the 29.8% organic revenue growth, which, combined with operating leverage, pushed the adjusted operating margin to 11.0%. Order intake fell short of our high expectations, but maintaining high delivery volumes while improving margins reinforces our view of Saab’s execution and will likely raise our near-term forecasts.
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So the CEO stated today that the company is considering increasing the GlobalEye production capacity to six aircraft per year. 
A strong hint regarding the status of interest and negotiations.
Press conference: Q2 2026 Report
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Renato has published a new report on Saab’s Q2.
Saab delivered another strong quarter, exceeding our and the consensus expectations regarding revenue, profitability, and earnings per share, while order intake fell short of our forecast due to the timing of smaller campaigns. The Polish submarine order drove the order intake and reinforced our view that the next phase of European rearmament will favor larger platforms, for which Saab is strongly positioned. We are raising our 2026-28 forecasts only slightly, as our figures already contain high expectations. At the same time, the valuation has become more reasonable following the rating downgrade, which we consider sentiment-driven. With earnings growth accounting for the majority of the expected returns, the return profile exceeds our threshold, although the high expectations embedded in the stock keep our confidence at the same level. We are raising our target price to 635 kronor (prev. 622 kronor) and maintain our “accumulate” recommendation.
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Strong news for GlobalEye continues. Just now, a new order worth 10.1 billion SEK (approximately 910 MEUR) from an unnamed Middle Eastern country was announced. Two surveillance aircraft, with delivery in 2030.
Due to the nature of the industry, circumstances concerning the customer and national security interests, no further information regarding this order or the customer will be provided.
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Those two aircraft may have gone to the UAE to replace ones destroyed in the bombings earlier in the spring. In addition, Saab has ongoing discussions in the region with at least Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt.
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Here are Renato’s comments on that order for a couple of surveillance aircraft he received.
Saab announced that it has received an order contract for two GlobalEye aircraft from an unnamed Middle Eastern country. The value of the order is 10.1 billion SEK, and deliveries are scheduled for 2030. In our view, this is a significant order that highlights the competitiveness of the GlobalEye platform and provides solid revenue visibility for Saab’s Surveillance division. As deliveries are scheduled for 2030, we believe the majority of the financial return will come from 2028 onwards. Following the order, we will review our Q3 order intake forecasts and broader forecast assumptions for the entire contract period and beyond to assess whether adjustments are justified.
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