Saab Aeronautics receives small order from the FMV.
The takeaway: Saab right before the weekend received ~2.5 BSEK from the FMV for Gripen development resources covering 2026-28. This is the plumbing that keeps Gripen upgradeable. It supports long term competitiveness, but it is not an estimate mover at group level.
What was ordered in plain English:
FMV is paying for the tools and test capacity that let Saab add new capabilities safely and fast.
- Operation and support of test aircraft: It is our understanding that Saab keeps a few Gripen aircraft as flying test labs. They are used to try new software and new system setups before anything is rolled out broadly.
- Rigs and simulators:
- A rig is a ground based setup where real aircraft systems are connected so engineers can test upgrades in a controlled environment.
- A simulator is a realistic cockpit and system environment where pilots and engineers can test functions and scenarios that are too risky or impractical to do in the air.
- Verification and validation:
- Verification is proving the new software mode does exactly what the spec says across test cases.
- Validation is proving that mode actually helps a pilot find, track, or survive better in the real mission context.
- New capability development is then the output of this whole pipeline: new software functions, new sensor features, and new integrations, introduced through a controlled pipeline so Gripen can keep up as threats evolve. This is exactly how Saab describes the purpose of the order.
Numerical context:
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~2.5 BSEK over 3 years implies ~0.8 BSEK per year.
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Saab’s group order backlog was 202.4 BSEK at end Q3 2025, so this is ~1.2% of group backlog.
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Aeronautics order backlog was ~44.7 BSEK at end Q3 2025, so it is more visible inside the division.
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On our estimates, the annual run rate is less than ~1% of 2026e group revenue, so it does not change the estimates.
Perspective:
Why this matters, you ask? Modern combat aircraft compete on sensors, software, and how fast you can integrate and validate upgrades, not only the airframe. This contract funds the test and validation machinery that makes future upgrades real, not marketing, and it reinforces FMV’s long term reliance on Saab’s engineering ecosystem.
On the upgradability note, a leaked Canadian evaluation table reportedly scored “upgradability” F-35 100% vs Gripen 28% with a 28% weight. That is a notable datapoint, but the underlying scoring method is not public, so I would not over-interpret it. The safer conclusion is that “upgradability” can be defined very differently depending on the customer, but it is still an important topic as the battlefield is continuously evolving.
What to watch next: 1) Follow on FMV awards that move from “development support” into concrete capability adds with clearer delivery and margin profile. 2) Any disclosure on mix and profitability in Aeronautics, since support work can be steady but not necessarily high margin.
Press release: “Saab receives order for development resources for Gripen.”