Typically, these processes take a while, and those following the industry know about the projects and the most likely competitors.
But not everything is necessarily priced in yet. One interesting speculation I read about is NATO’s need to modernize its AWACS aircraft. The E-7 Wedgetail, previously considered a likely option, has dropped out of this, partly due to a lack of US support for that E-7 aircraft. For Saab, this is an opportunity, because the probability of Saab’s Globaleye aircraft getting into that NATO project increased significantly.
But then one can reasonably ask why the United States isn’t acquiring those E-7 AWACS aircraft for itself? Well, because they apparently meet the need with satellites. So, is it also possible that NATO will opt for a similar solution?
(https://themerge.co/p/decoys)
That Merge is actually a good source to follow these various opportunities worldwide. That newsletter also mentions other opportunities for Saab’s GlobalEye. Usually, competitors for various projects are well-known, and thus all of this is already priced into the stock.