When a company falls short of expectations, the market logically lowers its expectations for the company. A negative opening is certainly coming.
However, breaking below those previous lows is a rather bearish view. I wonder if the market will really start punishing the company based on the most chaotic quarter in its history? From here, margins should start improving gradually, right?
As another example regarding quarterly forecasts: @Juha_Kinnunen has forecasted the bottom for EBITA% in Q3 at -12.8% versus Q2 at 14.6% (actual). Even here, the analyst has likely estimated the timing of non-recurring items a bit tongue-in-cheek, so I wouldn’t dare say whether the big picture is quite that bearish. Here are the old quarterly forecasts to help grasp the big picture:
On the other hand, the aforementioned trough, not the ATL, is from less than a month ago, and back then there was no knowledge of clearly lower demand for basic Revenio products.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the ten-euro mark is tested soon, unless the conference call provides a good explanation for everything.
Is @Juha_Kinnunen having the CEO interview today like before? Looking at the pro forma figures from last year, losses were made regarding Visionix. Is this due to old financing arrangements or something else, since the financial expenses were quite high, nevertheless? At the latest during the Capital Markets Day, they need to explain how Visionix’s earnings performance will be improved, so that we haven’t just bought mere revenue here.
Edit. Not very good credentials were provided for the rights issue. If they fail to convince in the earnings call / Capital Markets Day that this will turn for the better quickly, the subscription price probably won’t be very high.
Are they actually trying to talk the market down now that there’s a chance, so that accumulation (tankkaaminen) can happen more cheaply ? As I said, I see the numbers of this chaotic period as slightly positive. Slightly, because risks certainly exist.
Having been involved in real estate transactions: The situation is like a major house cleaning; at first glance, it looks like everything is being turned upside down. After the cleaning, a quick reorganization and everything is better than before. Perhaps it’s even better to compare this to a surface renovation, if not a complete overhaul.
In chaos, it’s easy to misprice a place (apartment/house).
It’s worth taking a breath for a moment and avoiding overreaction.
I jumped off Revenio’s bandwagon about a year ago at around the 24 euro price level when the company’s growth outlook seemed to be sputtering and earnings per share were on a downward trend. I figured you can get higher-quality business and better growth at a better price elsewhere, so it’s worth taking this comment with a grain of salt.
From the sidelines, I’ve followed Revenio’s journey a bit since then, and based on this track record, the stock has no business coming back into my portfolio. That Visionix acquisition alone raised question marks about whether this is a classic “diworsefication” acquisition—meaning buying lower-quality business in the hope of growth.
At least to me, glancing quickly at that report, there are orange flags: organic revenue growth wasn’t reported as far as I can see, operating profit adjusted for non-recurring items and margins are declining, and operating cash flow dipped into the negative. Management’s remuneration policy seems to be tied to earnings per share and the company’s market value, meaning management should theoretically be on the shareholders’ side, but the company’s future is now heavily dependent on how well that acquisition is integrated and whether those famous synergies are achieved or not. I can’t answer that question myself, being a fool, so I’ll stay far away from the stock until we start seeing some proof.
Yes, there is, that’s what I’ve been trying to prepare for here using the new data.
Based on the pro formas, the key figures looked to me just like what was communicated. H1’26 is still tricky to interpret, but 2025 is.
Financing is being overhauled anyway, so these don’t matter a whole deal. In addition, there are probably expenses related to foreign exchange rate fluctuations here (like with Revenio). It’s best to focus on the operational side.
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Generally on the Q2 figures in a rush: practically speaking, it was the “old Revenio” that fell short on earnings. Two things: lack of revenue growth and a weakening gross margin. They don’t report it directly, but they stated:
“During the quarter, the revenue of the old Revenio remained at the previous year’s level.”
“The gross margin percentage in the second quarter was 64.7 (72.6)%. The decline was due to an approximately 2 percentage point dilution effect from Visionix, as well as an approximately 5 percentage point weakening in Revenio’s business, which was caused by, among other things, increased tariffs and rising unit costs for electronic components.”
Visionix’s “month” looked roughly as expected, but there is still plenty of digging to do here. I won’t bother commenting anymore here during the day, the report will be out for all investors at the same time.
The interview didn’t really answer many of my questions. Is the acquisition justified solely by the apparent market growth to 2.5 billion? Sure, Revenio will certainly get its foot in the door with its own customer base using Visionix’s complementary products, and vice versa, iCare’s products can be sold to a very ready customer base, e.g., along with RETCAD AI. Apparently, there have been inquiries about delivering more comprehensive equipment packages? Can Revenio now be compared to, say, Topcon because the portfolio is so comprehensive?
Is the plan then for Thrion to develop an AI model for the OCT camera for multiple diseases (this could make sense, but requires investments of at least ten million)? I would understand a package like this, but the scope stretches out about 5 years.
A big but, if the underlying business remains good, and Visionix and the machinery are gradually fixed up, then why not. I do see growth drivers, but stronger profitability will come slowly.
There are so many opportunities right now that it’s hard to decide which direction to take for development
[quote=“BullionBabble, post:2984, topic:1256”]
My own guess. €14.5
[/quote]
I was thinking to myself that Juha has always been very bullish on Revenio, so a drop this big probably wouldn’t be in sight. I was thinking €18. Now it looks like the new target price is €19. The Buy recommendation remains. Juha’s mind isn’t changed all that easily, even if the old Revenio wouldn’t grow. Personally, I wouldn’t pay more than ten euros for the current performance. Nor can I estimate the potential future turnaround, but quite a bit of that must have been priced into that €19, and the hockey stick growth (lätkämaila) is definitely being offered. I wonder if the stick will hold or if it will snap from the next slapshot?
Operational cash flow has been historically weak over the trailing two quarters. Clearly more cash than normal has been tied up in working capital during the early part of the year.
Well, I listened to the interview. The core is leaking, there’s no growth, and profitability is weakening. But at least we got a positive result from the culture audit.
If only they had hired a consultant who could tell us that revenue and profitability are quite important too.
What if one of the highest-quality companies on the Helsinki Stock Exchange has dropped by over 80 percent – and might still not be cheap?
Revenio was loved on the stock market for a long time, and iCare tonometer devices brought the company fantastic profitability. Now, however, the story has changed. Growth is acquired, margins are under pressure, and organic growth is faltering. In this video, I go through Revenio’s current situation and ponder whether the stock currently has an attractive margin of safety or if it is a valuation trap.
The video covers, among other things: Why the organic growth of the old Revenio stalled and profitability declined in Q2? Visionix acquisition: A new pillar or a significant integration risk? The 80 million euro rights issue at the end of the year and covenant challenges. Bull and bear scenarios: What is required of the company for the current share price to be justified? The true potential of iCare HOME2 – just an option or a surefire growth driver?
The strategy and its execution are based on four cornerstones:
Advancing clinical certainty and workflow efficiency through combined product innovations and workflows that help customers deliver better eye care
Ensuring commercial success with a customer-centric operating model
Scaling operational efficiency with uncompromising quality
Developing personnel and culture as a core strength
Financial targets for 2027–2029
Organic net sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5–10 percent from 2027 to 2029
25 percent adjusted EBITDA margin by the end of 2029
Revenio Group is hosting a Capital Markets Day in Helsinki today, September 15, 2026, starting at 2:00 p.m. CEO Jouni Toijala and other members of the management team will present the updated strategy. The event will be held in English.
Inderes’ forecasts for Revenio’s profitability in the coming years are relatively ambitious compared to the targets. In effect, it is expected that the target level for the end of 2029 will already be reached in 2028.
Here are Juha’s comments on Revenio’s Capital Markets Day
Revenio’s Capital Markets Day held on Tuesday clarified the outlook for the 2027–2029 strategy period. The updated strategy is logically built upon the broader product portfolio brought by the Visionix acquisition, and the company is now making a stronger push to offer comprehensive solutions along the patient pathway. While the day’s takeaways, strategy, and new financial targets made the outlook more concrete, the path toward full synergy benefits appears to be longer than we previously anticipated. Significant measures will still be implemented in 2028, whereas we previously anticipated the heaviest integration period to end in 2027. We have not made changes to our forecasts, but we see downward pressure on them for 2028 due to this delay. Otherwise, we did not observe any essential changes in the big picture.
One note from Kauppalehti’s breaking news, I didn’t even know that SEB was riding with such a low target price, unfortunately, it looks much more realistic than Inderes’, especially since the terms of the share issue haven’t even been published yet: SEB raises Revenio’s target price to EUR 13.70 (prev. EUR 13.60), reiterates hold rating
I’ll add just a bit more, that the terms of the share issue are likely the last piece of inside information, after which one would imagine the window for insider share purchases opens. I intend to monitor this closely myself, because I consider the signaling value of purchases to be important.
Valuation could be double, i.e., 1.3 billion, if the EBITDA target of 25% is reached and growth hits the upper end of the 5-10% range, and if the EBITDA multiple is 15.
Valuation slightly below current levels if the EBITDA multiple is 10, the growth target is not met, and synergies are only partially achieved.
There’s something to ponder while an 80 million euro share issue is coming up, cash flow is faltering, and the old Revë isn’t really growing as profitability declines.
? As I said, I see the numbers of this chaotic period as slightly positive. Slightly, because risks certainly exist.
Why the organic growth of the old Revenio stalled and profitability declined in Q2?
Visionix acquisition: A new pillar or a significant integration risk?
The 80 million euro rights issue at the end of the year and covenant challenges.
Bull and bear scenarios: What is required of the company for the current share price to be justified?
The true potential of iCare HOME2 – just an option or a surefire growth driver?