Revenio as an investment

Earnings double in 4 years :rocket:

Continuing with conservative forecasts. Explosive earnings growth is coming in the next few years.

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Why have you chosen that specific analysis from April 25, 2021, as the starting point for your review? After all, Inderes has been covering Revenio for ages, and the forecasts have hit the mark quite well. I took a spot-check look at Mikael’s report from February 16, 2018, for example; in it, the EBIT trajectory is quite solid even up to this day :smiley:

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Is that the problem you see in the chart? :joy:

You can look at the matter in so many ways. Even the fact that Mikael made good forecasts in 2017 is true. I just don’t bother to write it in every post.

I didn’t say there was a problem, I was mainly wondering why the forecast history doesn’t go further back, since those forecasts are available; it would give a fairer picture of Inderes’ long-term forecast accuracy. Otherwise, it creates a recency bias :slight_smile:

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Mikael stopped making Revenio forecasts in 2021. I don’t believe that forecasts made by Mikael more than five years ago help with future forecasts. And yes, there is other informational value in that image besides whether those forecasts hit the mark. It is clear that they didn’t.

In my opinion, Revenio offers the best buying opportunity since spring 2019, when the CenterVue acquisition was made. The valuation has been pushed down, but at the same time, the market position and relative performance vs. competitors are first-class. I believe Revenio is executing its strategy very purposefully, supported by a committed and long-term principal owner. The acquisition card (even in the very short term) makes owning it interesting at this point, if/when the product portfolio and consequently the target market can be expanded. And surely the company has products/services in development in its own pipeline that we aren’t even aware of yet. Now you get growing quality at a reasonable price, and you can no longer claim that “Revenio is always expensive.”

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So, is your point with that image a) forecasting is difficult, especially predicting the future, or b) do you think the current analyst is performing so poorly that the analyst should be replaced?

If it’s a), I strongly agree with that; especially in recent years (3-5y), forecasting economic development has been devilishly difficult.

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Everyone can interpret those images however they like. In my opinion, one can draw very clear conclusions about future forecasts from them, but I’m not claiming that anyone needs to reach the same conclusions, even though I think it’s sensible to utilize that information.

The company’s valuation is lower than ever, at least. The cash position is strong and cash flow for the full year is good. Q4 was admittedly quite poor. Hopefully, these are temporary problems.

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iCare partners with Mediwhale to utilize AI focused on the prevention of cardiovascular diseases

Edit: “The aim of the partnership is to integrate Mediwhale’s AI-based Dr. Noon CVD software, which predicts the risk of cardiovascular diseases using retinal images, into the iCare DRSplus fundus camera as part of the iCare Screening Solution. This creates an effective combined solution for preventive healthcare.”

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