Remedy - The pride of Finnish AAA games (Part 2)

If my notes are correct, AW2 moved into production in August 2021, and around this time Control 2 was apparently in the concept stage only:

And AW2 was released a little over two years later in October 2023. Of course, Control 2 was exceptional in that it was in the concept stage for a very long time, probably over a year and a half (considering that concepting usually takes 3-6 months according to Remedy’s general schedule). After that, Control 2 moved to the POC stage in Q1 2023:

Again, Control 2 was in the POC stage until around Q1-2 2024. Again, this roughly one-year POC stage is slightly longer than usual in Remedy’s schedules:

Then at the beginning of 2025, Control 2 moved into production, meaning this production readiness stage also lasted nearly a year:

Comparing it to AW2’s roughly two-year production period, I would have assumed that Control 2 would be finished in late 2026/early 2027. Of particular note here is that MPR entered full production during Q2-3 2024, which means Remedy has had two projects in full production in 2025. In the comments above, you can see that Control 2 moved into production at the point when MPR had already made “excellent progress in full production.” Also noting that MPR is not quite the same kind of project as Control 2 since there isn’t the same need to create something entirely new, even though the MP games are indeed being remade from scratch.

For this reason, my own assumption was that MPR would be released in H1 2026 as it went into production before Control 2. Since all Max Payne games are at most approx. 10h games, I thought it would have been logical for that MPR package to be ready well before Control 2. I would have added about six months of development to that, so that the resources freed up from MPR could potentially assist in finalizing Control 2, with the game then being ready for release in early 2027.

From this, one could conclude that the long concept/POC/production readiness stages for Control 2 have genuinely helped the project’s progress during the production phase, because the game is being released approx. 1.5 years after entering production (estimates remain imprecise until the release date is known). At the same time, Remedy’s capability to handle two simultaneous or partially overlapping production-stage projects seems to be at a reasonably good level. Going forward, it’s worth considering whether we can assume that two simultaneous production phases won’t necessarily hinder each other in the same way as, for example, AW2 acted as an obstacle to the progress of other projects. Now, as the release of Control 2 approaches, it is also good to follow commentary related to MPR and conduct a status review of where all projects stand, as on a general level it seems that Remedy has reached that critical point where the production model is starting to fall into place.

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Good points. Remedy hasn’t really ever stayed within those stage-gate guidelines during its time on the stock exchange. The situation might be different in the future. My 2c:

Control 2 was indeed in pre-production for a long time, but I don’t believe it actually sped up production, except perhaps for staying in pre-production about a quarter longer than their guidance.

I was previously a bit worried about this long pre-production, but now it makes a lot of sense. The long conceptualization and PoC were likely due to this very risky genre-shift, which required significantly more planning and validation in the PoC than a traditional safe sequel.

It would have been interesting to be a fly on the wall listening to what kind of discussions Virtala, Mäki, Kasurinen, Järvi, and others had when they decided to jump from the genre of a GOTY-winning game to something completely new and change the beloved main character at the same time. No other AAA company operates like this. On the other hand, going against the grain when other AAAs are making safe crap might very well be a winning strategy.

I still stand firmly behind the company and my investment, and I believe in the success of Control Resonant, but there’s still plenty of contradictory action in the company. Firebreak, with its AA budget, was made into safe crap, but the risk level of the decisions for the sequel to the biggest IP’s AAA game resembles degenerate gambling :smiley:

As a note, a few factors explaining Control 2’s fast production phase, which have been mentioned before but are perhaps more interesting now that it seems production speed has actually increased—because if the game comes out in 2026 (April-November), then production has lasted 15-22 months, i.e., for once within Remedy’s 15-26 month production phase guidance range.

  1. Control 2 is likely the first project to utilize OpenUSD throughout the entire production phase? I’m not very technical and I’m at the limits of my understanding here, but if I’ve understood correctly from, among other things, Remedy’s own public materials (1, 2), this enables:
    a) Integrating artists’ own tools directly into Northlight without the laborious and time-consuming export/import circus of different file formats.
    b) Different developers/artists can live-edit the game at the same time. For example, one adds physical objects to the game, another adjusts lighting, and a third adjusts physics. Traditionally, one change at a time so that other creators are stuck waiting.

  2. Reuse/modification of New York/Manhattan assets between Alan Wake 2, Max Payne Remakes, and Control Resonant.

  3. Remedy’s massive personnel growth slowed down in late 2022. There’s unlikely to have been a rush out the door, as the industry has seen massive layoffs since then. In other words, the teams have been working together for a long time, and new hires have become familiar with the company’s ways and work together more efficiently.

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One could also imagine that production has been accelerated by the fact that the engine is “ready.” From Control to Alan Wake 2, the engine had to be overhauled quite a bit to incorporate modern eye candy and update it for the PS5 / Xbox Series X/S era, but after AW2, there hasn’t really been much reason for the engine to need major work. This means they’ve been able to go straight into game development without many things waiting for the engine team to finish changes, at least regarding the art side. So, previous investments in their proprietary engine and its tool pipeline are now bearing fruit.

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I personally don’t see a big genre shift for Control Resonant (vs. Control). It will stay pretty much the same imo. It’s just shifting towards the melee side, and that should make for a pretty cool third game once melee and ranged are integrated. I think we’ll definitely see Jesse in the future too, at least hopefully :slight_smile:

Let’s also hope things progress with Annapurna. That movie/series side is something that, if successful, could take this to a whole new level. This is still far off, of course, but the idea behind the collaboration is excellent. Market cap now about 220 million.

It would also be nice to know if AI has been integrated into the Northlight ecosystem. Apparently, with the Claude / Unity setup, it’s possible to create entities by text prompting. At some point, with a good engine, a voice prompt might be enough to adjust a world to your liking in real-time. I suppose you still need a game engine in the background, though, when making such long and evolving worlds and stories.

Remedy’s Chairman of the Board also hyped on LinkedIn that the Finnish government’s “expat invites” with a 25% income tax would be a significant opportunity in the search for a new CEO. Hopefully, it helps in making a good choice! This Finnish taxation is such a long-term catastrophe, but maybe that’s for another thread…

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Rogue Protocol update released for Firebreak

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I also spotted this in their press release.

Free Steam Weekend and Double XP Event

To celebrate the launch of the Rogue Protocol update and the Endless Shift game mode, FBC: Firebreak will be playable for free on Steam from January 23–25 starting at 8:00 PM (EET). During the free weekend, new players can jump in and experience Endless Shift as well as all of the game’s content for free.

Alongside the free weekend, Remedy is hosting a Double XP event on all platforms, where players will earn double experience points for all gameplay during the event. This makes the weekend an excellent time to progress in the game, unlock new rewards, and try out different playstyles and loadouts.”

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https://x.com/Wario64/status/2013700268798378088

I came across a post on X stating that Alan Wake is on sale on Steam. At the same time, the user noticed that the Alan Wake Franchise bundle has been renamed to Alan Wake Origins. There were also comments in the post with similar thoughts to mine, questioning whether this could point toward AW2+AWR coming to Steam.

It could, of course, just be noise, but I could imagine that in addition to the possible arrival of AW2+AWR on Steam, it would be a good idea to tie in a small announcement about Remedy’s latest project. Which, by all logic, is the AW3 project. This would surely provide good visibility for this IP.

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On X, a few hundred users across several languages have got it into their heads, based on an Inderes report, that Remedy has confirmed Control Resonant will be released during H1 or Q2/2026, meaning by the end of June. This is actually @Atte_Riikola’s informed estimate regarding the game’s potential release, not an official announcement from Remedy. The information was shared by a single user as so-called “Remedy investor relations” and has spread from there.

Dozens of X accounts are now repeating the news incorrectly as confirmed fact. Many accounts have 30–100k followers, so it’s getting plenty of visibility, albeit incorrect. It would be great if the game comes out within those 6 months, but Q3/26 is probably a more realistic timeframe, at least in my book. Of course, the earlier the game is released before GTA, the better:

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Additionally, Control Ultimate Edition seems to be on sale for €3.99 on Steam and included in a few bundles. It’s good for publicity that more and more people are playing AW2 and Control before the release of Control Resonant.

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Below is also a list of games being released this year. It looks like a good year for gaming, meaning there’s plenty of competition:
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In honor of the free weekend, here is my last post on Firebreak for now.

FBC: Firebreak’s free weekend CCU curve below.

Wait - apologies, it was hard to tell these two apart.

Edit: Okay, the one above was yesterday’s screenshot. It looked like it rose a bit today from yesterday, but I found such a fitting GIF to describe the CCU curve that let’s keep the ones above visible anyway :slight_smile:

As the Q3 €-14.9M write-down already suggested, everyone can now also see on a practical level that the future value of this Remedy “asset” is a flat zero.

Firebreak only managed to get a few hundred players interested in trying the game for free.
A bleak weekend from a Finnish perspective, even though no one really believed in the recovery of Firebreak or Pax Dei (the MMO from Finnish Mainframe Industries) anymore. Neither Finnish game managed to gather any significant player count even during free trials. Of course, Remedy didn’t practically market this free weekend at all, and that’s for the best. Marketing euros must now be saved for Control 2.

Competition is fierce even in free weekends, which is either a funny and/or depressing example of industry polarization, the competitive landscape of the gaming industry, and how consumers are being conditioned to get longer and higher-quality content for a single unit of currency. An excellent situation from the consumer’s perspective!

The early access co-op game No Rest For The Wicked (86% positive rating) grabbed all the free trial players, ~25-folding its CCU during the free weekend, while for example Pax Dei’s CCU rose a measly ~50%.

This is how these co-op games should be made nowadays. Long time in early access, early real-life player feedback, and continuous iterations. When a solid foundation is proven this way, Free Weekend triers convert very cost-effectively into wishlisters and buyers.

Not from an ivory tower imagining that one knows what players want, which seems to have happened with Firebreak. In Remedy’s other games, the execution has followed the concept art very closely. In Alan Wake 2, it’s remarkably well done (AW2 concept art: https://magazine.artstation.com/2023/12/remedy-entertainment-alan-wake-2-art-blast/)

Comparing this to Firebreak, the difference between the concept art and the execution is quite obvious.

Imagine the reception if Warhammer 40k started making a bit more colorful art style and reduced the gore in the game to target a wider audience. Or, well. WH 40K Dawn of War 3 is sort of an example of this, which players abandoned and whose CCU curve is one-to-one with Firebreak. A similar story was Resident Evil’s Re:Verse multiplayer experiment - they thought the IP would carry it, regardless of content. Oh, you haven’t heard of it? No wonder, because even though the Resident Evil IP was behind it, the CCU curve was like Firebreak’s. 2k at launch and quickly down to zero. Developed for a few more years and then the game was pulled from Steam.

I don’t know at what point they moved from concept art to whatever current Firebreak represents, but there’s no use crying over spilled milk.

Personally, I did like the new roguelike mode, and there’s probably enough for twenty hours of play while waiting for Control 2. Overall, however, the game is far too thin on content, messy, and punishes the player more often than it challenges them. There is a core of a functional game somewhere under the surface sludge. However, bringing this out would likely require such an amount of development work that the ROI certainly wouldn’t be very good.

It looks like Firebreak’s content updates were it, and perhaps it’s better that way. The latest update didn’t mention a word about future updates. The previous roadmap still had a patch for March (a new class). This will probably remain in a sort of “Zombie mode,” where over the years, with a bit of luck, a million might still be squeezed out through deep discounts. Peer-to-peer hosting doesn’t incur costs, after all.

In theory, leaving it in zombie mode would still give the company the option to do something with the game if Control 2 significantly improved the company’s financial position. New enemies and assets from Control 2 could at least be utilized.

Looking Ahead

February could be an interesting month. The 2025 annual report is coming in a few weeks. But even more significant are the typical online gaming events of the year:

January - Microsoft Developer Direct
February - Sony State of Play / Showcase
March - Xbox Partner Preview
April -
May - Sony State of Play / Showcase usually in May-June.
June - Summer Games Fest + Microsoft’s big showcase.
July -
August - Gamescom Opening Night Live
September - Sony State of Play / Showcase usually in May-June.
October - Xbox Partner Preview
November -
December - The Game Awards

February’s State of Play/Showcase has mainly focused on showing games coming out in H1. For a Q2 release to be possible, a gameplay or preorder trailer would practically need to appear in Sony’s February event. If that doesn’t happen, I’d consider it almost certain that the release is in Q3 at the earliest. The original Control collaborated strongly with Sony’s marketing, which seems to have continued with the Control 2 announce trailer, which got the best visibility on PlayStation’s channel.

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Atte’s preview of next week’s Q4.

In the preview, royalties are €4.7M, mainly from the AW2 PS+ month and Firebreak’s B2B payments. Personally, I anticipate Sony paid slightly more for AW2 than Atte estimates, but it likely won’t have a major impact on the big picture.

One interesting scenario that I consider possible but not likely is that development fees will fall significantly short of Atte’s figures. Atte anticipates €9.3M in development fees from Resonant and MPR. If Atte’s forecasts for a Q2 release hold true, the production size for Resonant might have started to decrease slightly in Q4 and will continue to do so toward the release.

At the same time, MPR has been in production for a long while already, and the game shouldn’t be more complex production-wise than Resonant. Therefore, it can be considered likely that MPR is also nearing the home stretch in terms of production, which means development fees could be on the decline.

I don’t really believe in an MPR release this year because I see the size of the Northlight team as the biggest bottleneck in game releases. The Northlight team pieces these projects together in this final phase, and I just don’t see the possibility of handling two projects at the same time.

Assuming the management’s statements about production progressing according to plan are true and milestones have been reached, it might be that they are moving more toward waiting for resources to be freed up from Resonant. This would also lower the incoming development fees.

I still consider the level of development fees predicted by Atte as the most likely option and expect a relatively good Q4 in terms of figures. I’m just keeping an open mind to the possibility that there could be a clear miss in development fees. And as a proper Remedy investor should, I already have explanations ready for why missing these figures is a positive thing :smiley:

Regarding MPR, it seems that at Rockstar, there is a wait for something regarding other projects as well, and the announcement of finished products is being postponed, at least according to rumors. This has likely also had an impact on why Resonant is coming out before MPR.

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There were some rumors floating around that the reason Rockstar has “forgotten” the RDR2 next-gen update and the Max Payne Remake is that they have some kind of “all hands on deck, everyone crunch on GTA6 now so it doesn’t have to be delayed even more – other projects don’t really matter” situation going on. I don’t know if there’s any truth to it, but it might explain why we haven’t heard anything about them. Or perhaps their resources have just been partially scaled back in the GTA6 rush, and that has delayed things. In the big picture, Rockstar and Take-Two pretty much live and die right now depending on whether GTA6 is a hit or a miss.

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It’s logical enough, but based on that article, the RDR2 next-gen update would also be ready and just waiting for release. Similarly, MPR doesn’t tie up Rockstar’s resources other than on the publishing side. I don’t see how the current situation with GTA 6, even with all its delays, would clog up the publishing pipeline yet. But I see these two data points as clearly explaining something as to why they don’t want to put out any releases right now. I guess it will become clear in time.

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They probably don’t want to lock in the RDR2 and MPR release windows before they are certain about the GTAVI year-end release. If GTAVI is delayed again, for example, MPR would likely have the best possible release window at the end of November in place of GTA.

If there is no news at SGF, Max Payne’s 25th anniversary on July 23, 2026, would be the perfect time to announce a late 2026 or early 2027 release date for MPR.

Also considering the Remedy bottlenecks mentioned by @Henkka.

I think Tero might have said something at some point to the effect of 6–18 months between games, but with an average goal of one game per year. If I recall correctly, he explained that games cannot or should not be released right after one another. But my memory of this is hazy, and the matter isn’t important enough for me to search for a source right now.

The rumored Sony State of Play at the end of the month is important, as marketing needs to continue there for a Q2 release to be realistic. In my opinion, the Resonant release is also a prerequisite for the possibility of a late 2026 MPR release.

A Nintendo Partner Preview is rumored for this Thursday, but my expectations are low regarding Remedy. Switch 2 has now sold 17M copies. Still quite small compared to PC/other consoles.

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In my opinion, this looks like Rockstar is delaying the announcement of MPR for one reason or another. MPR has been in full production for almost two full years now, longer than Resonant has been. The team sizes are surely different, but my assumption has been that a Remake should be completed relatively quickly and with fewer resources when you’re “only” remaking something existing. My assumption here is that MPR might already be in a very finished state, but Rockstar doesn’t want to announce it to the general public yet for the reasons mentioned above (GTA6, RDR2-remake, etc.)…

Through this, I also assume that the recognized development fees from MPR will decrease significantly in the future.

This could also be the reason why Resonant is currently expected to be released earlier than anticipated, if MPR resources have already been shifted to finishing Resonant…

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I think you’re confusing “remake” and “remaster”. A remake specifically takes more time.

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The existing one happens to be over 20 years old. This means that quite a lot needs to be redone, essentially the whole game, for the experience to meet modern standards. I don’t understand what the assumed speed or smaller resources are based on. MPR is a big project.

The release window is indeed a mystery. Stashing finished games on the shelf for a long time isn’t really something anyone besides Nintendo does. I don’t really believe in that. My guess is that there will be a release by September. Otherwise, it will slip too far into next year.

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My memories are largely the same. They were related to inquiries about the annual release cadence. If Resonant comes out in June and we include a month of summer vacation, perhaps it’s realistic to see February 2027 as the earliest MPR could come out. And in that case, the July 23rd date you mentioned would be a pretty good time to announce something related to the project. This would also give the first proper trailer a spot at Gamescom, and it wouldn’t cannibalize the visibility of Control Resonant.

I’m of the same mind myself. I’d imagine the production phase is significantly smaller than what it is for Resonant. Bundled together, the playtime for a linear playthrough would be around 15–18 hours according to a quick Google search. The game’s linearity should likely also mean an easier production phase. Compared to, for example, Resonant, where player choices apparently have consequences and thus the number of degrees of freedom increases. Also, since the world is apparently the hub-style “semi open-world” that has become the Remedy standard nowadays, it requires more work than a Max Payne-style linear early-2000s corridor shooter. On the other hand, in the final stages of production when the project is being wrapped up, I don’t believe the workload here is drastically smaller than for a “standard” new Remedy AAA game.

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Yes, a Remake takes more time than a Remaster. And indeed, from a 20-year-old game, few assets are directly usable.
My point was that I believe this Remake will still be completed faster than an equivalent completely new game (e.g., Resonant) where almost everything, from the environment and story onwards, has to be created from scratch. Okay, most of these are surely tackled during the pre-production and production readiness phases, but there will certainly still be things to figure out during the actual production phase as well.

Max Payne is indeed more of a corridor shooter, as @Henkka noted. The story, characters, dialogue, assets needed for the game, environment concepts, levels, etc., are “ready” so to speak; they just need to be implemented. Of course, these don’t just appear by themselves, but knowing nothing about game development, I’d imagine the process is faster when an old reference already exists.

Q2/24: Max Payne 1&2 remake progressed from production readiness to the full production stage. The development team has been working towards developing the game to an early functional state from beginning to end.

I understand this to mean that just under 2 years ago, they were at a stage where they were aiming to build a version of the game that is playable from start to finish. Reading between the lines, the beginning part is already OK (a playable rough build must have been one condition for moving to full production), and the next goal is to get the whole “pipe” together. So, the last 1.5 years or so have been spent on polishing and refining. You’d think it would be ready soon…

cf. Resonant moved to full production a year ago (February 2025, 9-11 months after MPR), and the release is already coming in ~½ a year.

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Resonant is in quite good company, even making it into the thumbnail of this “10 Upcoming AAA Games We Can’t WAIT TO PLAY” video published yesterday on a channel with 8.5M subscribers, which has already gathered nearly 0.5M views. Surely a few of these will convert into wishlisters.

  1. GTA 6
  2. 007 First Light
  3. Gears of War: E-Day
  4. Crimson Desert
  5. Control: Resonant
  6. Fable
  7. The Elder Scrolls 6
  8. Marvel’s Blade
  9. Marvel’s Wolverine
  10. Resident Evil: Requiem

At the same time, regarding the previous discussion, Take-Two confirmed that GTA VI would be coming this year, which at some point should clarify the RDR2 next-gen and MPR (Max Payne Remake) releases, if Rockstar is to be believed.

“With ongoing momentum across many of our businesses, and the highly anticipated launch of Grand Theft Auto VI on November 19th, we continue to project record levels of Net Bookings in Fiscal 2027, which we believe will establish a new financial baseline for our business, set us on a path to enhanced profitability, and provide further balance sheet strength and flexibility.”

It’s said that marketing for the game will also begin this “this summer”, so eargely awaiting fans will have to wait a little longer to be able to see more on the game.

Source: https://ir.take2games.com/static-files/a68e5705-1d42-46f6-bd6b-95c219d7aac1

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A bit of a filler post, but as a nerd since the early 80s and having played through the Max Payne games back in the day, I actually got a bit excited by the Resonant trailer. Really stylish, and if it moves into swords and sledgehammers, it’ll clearly differentiate itself from Max Payne, which is all about heavy gunplay.

It is primarily important to build up hype so that streamers pick up the game, and sponsor them if necessary to make that happen. If they can also include multiplayer modes, success would be guaranteed and sales would follow suit.

Remedy has always known how to make games playable, so I believe the audience will gravitate toward these at a completely different rate than, hmm, previous less interesting releases, even if they were certainly good.

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