Remedy - The pride of Finnish AAA games (Part 2)

@Akee

Remedy and NVidia are running some kind of social media campaign. Remedy posted, for example, 5 posts on Instagram yesterday about AW2 and Control.

This is mainly a note because your analyses always seem to lack social media campaigns. They have a big impact on driving sales today.

You also don’t take into account physical world advertising campaigns, which are admittedly harder to account for because you can’t know what Epic is doing, for example, in the United States.

New customers are not acquired by hammering discount campaigns in digital marketplaces; they must be sought elsewhere and by different means.

Therefore, I see your comments on Tero’s speeches as somewhat erroneous. Just because you don’t see something doesn’t mean things aren’t happening.

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Could AW2 be included again alongside the RTX 50-series launch, perhaps as a bundled game or a freebie with the cards? There are rumors about a DLSS 4 feature on the new cards, and AW2 could very well be one of the games to receive support for it.

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It’s already 2025. So, it’s no longer a marketing activity from the end of last year.

Tero’s interview was given on 1.11.24. The physical version had already been released. It’s true that there’s no visibility into potential marketing activities in the US domestic market. However, one would still expect to hear something about these potential marketing campaigns, even if they were only for physical distribution, e.g., on Reddit/social media or elsewhere, but I haven’t come across anything.

Maybe. Maybe not.

At the same time, key personnel in Epic’s publishing team have been revamped. First, Sergiy Galyonkin, Head of Publishing Strategy, left during the AW2 release month, and about a year later, Hector Sanchez, Head of Epic Publishing, who moved to Annapurna. Epic has also laid off people, and the strategy has apparently shifted focus from publishing activities elsewhere, which I have written about before. I don’t believe Epic’s publishing team was very large or significant in supporting the AW2 release. Remedy has also communicated that it has been actively involved in marketing/publishing efforts itself. It could just as well be that Epic did the bare minimum, i.e., released the physical and collector’s editions, and on top of that, ran traditional sales in both traditional and digital channels.

In that sense, Tero’s comment holds true, even if no major marketing or sales activities separate from the discount campaign were undertaken – which is why I used the terms ‘empty words’ and ‘embellishment’. Of course, in hindsight, in an Inderes interview separate from the earnings report, there would hardly be any hint of a massive marketing/sales stunt if it wasn’t mentioned in the earnings report.

This discussion has gone a bit besides the point. The intention wasn’t really to criticize Tero, but to show that no matter what company it is – you shouldn’t be naive about everything a CEO says. It took me about 5 years from starting to invest to learn this, and it seems I haven’t fully internalized it yet. A CEO’s job is to be optimistic and, if necessary, to “embellish”. With phrases like “This is going to be sh*t anyway,” the tenure ends quickly.

Finally, let it be said that I believe Tero is the right person for the job. In my opinion, despite the post-COVID stumbles, the company has made excellent decisions in recent years, e.g., last year’s deals: Control rights, Annapurna, and VVK. These are significantly more important achievements than pleasing internet pseudonyms like me, who tend to overinterpret everything.

Interesting thought. If one considers the broader picture, that 50-series release window could serve as a sensible time for a potential Steam release.

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Has anyone noticed Remedy’s rather poor reputation on Glassdoor? I’m particularly interested in a more general level: do such factors influence your investment decisions?

Reading those reviews, certain themes recur: poor management culture, office politics, overtime, and low pay. Tight deadlines and low pay are, to my understanding, common in the gaming industry, so their appearance in the reviews didn’t surprise me. Poor management culture and office politics, however, made me think. It’s natural, of course, that a large company has many dissatisfied (ex-)employees whose views are certainly highlighted in a service like Glassdoor, but the coherence of the reviews made me doubt my rosy image of Remedy. However, personnel is the most important asset for a company like this, perhaps even more important than strong IP, so leadership and cultural problems sound like a ticking time bomb. Of course, as an outsider, it’s hard to get an accurate picture of the extent/reality of the problem, and one should probably approach current and former Remedy employees on LinkedIn to get a better understanding, but my Remedy position is so small that I probably won’t bother myself.

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I know several of the company’s higher-ups from my old journalism days, and it doesn’t really surprise me. Mostly I think it’s more about the company being created – and still led – by people who love gaming and have made their passion their profession. There aren’t many MBAs among them, so the management culture and problem-solving might reflect that. This is not a criticism, just an observation. I haven’t been in contact with them for about 14 years.

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Good reflections above.

I have been concerned about this issue, and Remedy’s internal annual report also showed that the published “employee engagement score (EES)” has been on a downward trend for, if I recall correctly, 4-5 years. On the other hand, Remedy’s employee retention has been clearly better than the industry average, and a functional multi-project model should, in principle, maintain good employee retention.

The gaming industry has suffered from massive layoffs, and the industry’s reputation and employment situation are currently very weak. During the COVID years, it was an employee’s market - now it’s an employer’s market. The threshold for resigning is likely high. On the other hand, despite this declining employee satisfaction, Alan Wake 2 was released as a high-quality product, competing with the world’s best game series like Zelda and Baldur’s Gate for GOTY (Game of the Year).

There might also be some stiffness in the Finnish work culture. I don’t believe the company practices ‘management by perkelettä’ (management by ‘devil’ or ‘damn it’, implying harsh/authoritarian management), but the difference in work culture compared to, for example, the United States or France, might be a shock for foreign employees. Here, the culture might be more hierarchical and rigid than elsewhere, which, on the other hand, is not necessarily a bad thing. In the IT sector, I’ve heard examples of quite wild and free remote work cultures, relative to one’s own values. Slow career progression has also been complained about. Although the company has not been a huge stock market success, unless one has owned shares since its listing, after Control and Alan Wake 2, the company is still among the world’s best AAA developers. Since, as I understand it, the company has a very skilled, committed, and long-serving senior staff, progression is inherently slow in a company of a few hundred people.

Employee satisfaction began to decline with the ramp-up of the multi-project model, which is quite understandable. Especially when too many projects were taken on relative to their own capabilities and resources. Employees on Glassdoor criticized the unrealistic production pipeline long before the shutdown of Vanguard/Kestrel.

In my opinion, it is now important to monitor how EES and Glassdoor ratings develop going forward, as the multi-project model should offer all employees sensible and continuous work, and the company should be more focused with one less game project. I recall that management has also been challenged on this topic in Inderes interviews as well as at general meetings.

It is also noteworthy that the departure of the HR Director, who served on the company’s management team, was announced in 9/2023, and the company stated that a successor would be sought as quickly as possible. Nothing has been heard about this since then; perhaps HR functions no longer belong to the management team. Furthermore, the new strategy no longer aims to be Europe’s most desired employer in the gaming industry, as it did previously, which is a notable change.

In any case, this is an important point, and I believe it’s crucial to monitor the development of employee experience trends – it is a huge asset, but also a risk for the company.

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I’m not too worried about the Glassdoor results. The company has made changes to its operating methods (multi-project model), and big changes always bring dissatisfaction to the surface. I myself have been in a software company where they wanted to completely overhaul the company’s product. For example, the management decided to change the programming language from C# to Python, and a good number of new developers were initially hired. Existing employees were offered training for the language change and new operating methods. Turnover was high, and Glassdoor looked bad… After a couple of years of struggle, however, productivity and consequently satisfaction improved tremendously.

When looking at, for example, this image from Inderes’ comprehensive report. (The image is missing the upcoming FCB: Firebreak 2025 and Max Payne remake 2026), it’s clear that the changes and Glassdoor struggles have paid off. Games are being released like on an assembly line compared to before.

I am more concerned about the opportunities brought by artificial intelligence and whether Remedy will be able to utilize them sufficiently. Capital Markets Day 2024 section 02:05:57 - 02:11:50 question

“I think there was not a single mention about AI in any of your presentations, so could you just give a brief recap that whats Remedy’s view in AI in game development?”

It was good to hear that AI has been used and that the company has a dedicated person who researches and tests the various opportunities brought by AI. Despite this, I wasn’t entirely convinced that Remedy is fully awake regarding AI. I would have hoped that the presentations would have somehow highlighted how they are utilizing it now or in the future, because it is current, and successful companies invest in it properly. When a very convincing answer couldn’t be given, the non-use of AI was tried to be covered up by stating that “legal matters and usage rights are not entirely clear”. In my opinion, this is a poor and miserable explanation and indicates a wrong attitude towards the opportunities it offers.

I, for one, will be following this section in the future and how Remedy communicates its AI strategy/usage and its development.

Here are the thoughts of the recipient of the 2024 investor title on utilizing AI in Finnish listed companies.
https://x.com/vontuchman/status/1873729399717007589

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I am probably in the minority, but I personally believe that Remedy’s somewhat cautious approach to artificial intelligence will be the right choice. One of the effects of the AI hype inflated by OpenAI is that the letter pair “AI” can mean anything between heaven and earth. I don’t know exactly what kind of artificial intelligence you would have wanted more information about from Remedy, but machine learning is widely used in the gaming industry, though often for tasks that are not very interesting. Also, the Northlight presentation page mentions “Proprietary machine learning models for generating hours of facial animation overnight from video or merely recorded dialogue,” so Remedy also uses machine learning to some extent.

If, on the other hand, you meant generative AI like ChatGPT or Sora, there are still several problems with its use that are better left for others to solve.

Problems with generative AI:

  1. The material produced by generative models is not high enough quality for the final game, so its use is limited to placeholders.
  2. Even if the quality were sufficient for the final game, as Remedy also stated, the copyrights of generative AI outputs are, as I understand it, still a grey area.
  3. Although OpenAI paints a beautiful picture of how one day AI could cost-effectively replace employees, we are still far from that. The much-hyped o3 model achieved its top results (which still fell short of the expert average) by cranking up the settings, resulting in a bill of about $3500 for each task.

In my opinion, it would also be a big blow to Remedy’s public image if they started heavily hyping generative AI, because Remedy is currently known precisely as an artisan studio.

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Somehow, the comments from the employees give the impression that this is almost the case in every slightly larger work environment. “Rush” (Kiire) and pressure are certainly present in every game project and a familiar problem, especially for developers. Unrealistic expectations and constantly changing specs are also certainly familiar to every coder at some point in their career. The more skills develop and experience accumulates, the better one learns to filter out unnecessary noise and take sensible actions. Sometimes regardless of what the salespeople have sold and the project designers have “stormed” (stormailleet).

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This leads us to the groups at different levels. If you belong to upper management, or are part of the so-called Senior group, the atmosphere and compensation seem good. This is usually how it tends to be. Middle management is probably also satisfied, and I’d guess they are slightly younger, enthusiastic workers who are certainly easy to entice to leave elsewhere, but who may not possess skills that would be difficult to replace or find elsewhere.

Then comes the lowest rung, the blue-collar/rank-and-file coder group, which can be very difficult to please. More personalities.
By default, all “bosses’” decisions are bad. Nothing is communicated, and then when asked what information they would like, there is silence. The salary is always bad, and a colleague always earns more, or at least doesn’t work as much. They spy and brood. Sounds bad, doesn’t it? This is what it’s like in many companies from a worker’s perspective. This may not be visible to management at all, especially if they have learned to give full marks in internal satisfaction surveys, just so there aren’t any unnecessary meetings or stupid measures from those clumsy bosses. Such a work atmosphere is usually strongly industry-dependent and, for example, in the construction industry, it’s the industry standard. Smaller employers and communities where the worst ass-kissers rise to become petty bosses are the worst.

This kind of gut feeling rant came out this Sunday. :rofl: In Remedy’s case, I wouldn’t be worried, as long as top-notch products keep coming out. In any case, “we’ll monitor the situation,” said the doctor from the welfare area.

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Alan Wake 2 was, as expected, one of the example games in Nvidia’s announcements last night.

It was briefly shown in the CEO’s keynote and a bit more prominently in the DLSS4 presentation.

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Does the Pentagon’s decision to classify Tencent as supporting the Chinese military affect Remedy? So, if sanctions are imposed on Tencent, could this also harm Remedy? The market at least seems to think so based on today’s stock price reaction…

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-adds-tencent-catl-list-chinese-firms-allegedly-aiding-beijings-military-2025-01-06/

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In Inderes’ report on current projects: Tencent is not in cooperation, unless that mysterious 4th project is with Tencent (for example, some kind of Vanguard/Kestrel reboot).

kuva_2025-01-07_203011043

Tencent owns a part of Remedy, and they have a lot of such holdings across Europe, so if mere ownership were a disadvantage, it would harm a significant portion of the gaming sector. In addition, Tencent has a convertible bond loan with Remedy, where ownership could increase, but in my opinion, this falls under financing. I don’t know how much of this activity they have, but I don’t believe it would have any significance.

I personally can’t think of any concrete harm from this, nor can Remedy, for example, prevent Tencent from acquiring shares. But of course, a larger ownership in Remedy or an acquisition is not attractive if Tencent is branded as the devil. But please share your thoughts too, that’s an interesting topic.

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I don’t have a direct crystal ball for this to see how things progress. But my feeling is that Donald won’t be just talk in his last term, and I wouldn’t take the risk until the matter is clear.

Official AW2 + RTX 50 Launch Hype

https://x.com/alanwake/status/1876629873546133706

image

https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/geforce/news/dlss4-multi-frame-generation-ray-tracing-rtx-games/

NVIDIA’s article specifically mentions Alan Wake 2 and how it’s being used as a showcase for the new features.

No information about bundles, but it’s very possible that there won’t be game bundles around the card launch, and they’ll be held back to boost card sales once the launch hype is over.

And for those who don’t know how these work: Essentially, NVIDIA sends its own developers as guest stars to improve the game with these latest features, and the game studio’s job is to oversee and release these additions. Yes, Remedy’s developers also have some work to do, but the biggest part of the work is consistently done by NVIDIA’s team.

This same pattern has been working for years, and this way NVIDIA gets the latest technological innovations into games that otherwise wouldn’t be economically viable (yet) to implement. Cards sell better when there are games that utilize these latest features, and game developers get “free enhancements” when game engine features are improved at NVIDIA’s expense.

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Usually, these games developed with Nvidia have also been offered as a bonus to buyers of a graphics card costing one or two thousand euros. Nvidia probably pays some kind of compensation to the publisher for those download coupons, but hardly the normal retail price.

Of course, these collaborations generate publicity. AW2 seems to be one of the test games in every new graphics card review nowadays.

AW2 was already bundled with RTX 40 series cards: https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/geforce/campaigns/alan-wake-2-pc-game-bundle/

But why couldn’t it be again with 50 series cards, if the game’s tech has been updated?

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Yes, they pay per distributed copy but significantly less than the full price. More likely closer to a single-digit number of euros per copy - bulk discounts are big in these, but quantities can also easily be tens, even hundreds of thousands of copies at once.

So far, nothing has been announced regarding bonuses for the 50-series. It’s possible that the bonus deals are on hold for a couple of months and will then be introduced to boost sales once the initial sell-out is over. A strong guess is that at least until February, everything that comes out of the factories will sell without bonus games.

AW2 is definitely a potential bundle game for the second round with the 50-series.

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Well done @Jarnis for explaining that Nvidia collaboration.

Remedy is clearly investing in NVIDIA collaboration and the RTX 50-series, which is likely Remedy’s initiative, not Epic’s. I find it interesting that AW2 is in the middle of Nvidia’s marketing image.

image

Even though the collaboration brings free work and visibility, I do wonder if the extra effort (e.g., Transformer-DLSS and Geometry Mega) is really worth it, considering 95% of the PC market, where DLSS is the only benefit, remains unreached.

To put it the other way, also referring to my previous message - If the game were not coming to Steam this year, perhaps the tech-fiddling investments should be put into Max Payne instead of Alan Wake. So perhaps a cautious sign again in favor of a Steam release #hopium

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But these are improvements to the engine. This acts as a beta test so that the same features are then ready in Max Payne. And since NVIDIA practically pays for most of the work out of its own pocket, this is a win-win - NVIDIA gets software that uses their new cards, Remedy gets NVIDIA-funded work to improve Remedy’s game engine. Future games also benefit. And AW2 gets marketing visibility in NVIDIA’s big product launch.

The work that Remedy employees do for this update is a fraction of the total work and is certainly worth doing even if it is “free work”. And yes, it will also sell a few extra copies to new card owners.

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I understand that it goes into the engine, but it still requires game-specific fine-tuning. Beta testing can also be done on an unreleased game.

Due to its popularity, Cyberpunk 2077 is more often used as a path tracing showcase example in NVIDIA’s materials than AW2. For example, also in this CES presentation. Are there any precedents for a 1.5-year-old game being included in a card bundle?

On the other hand, nowadays very few game developers focus on graphics, so NVIDIA might not have much choice in which games to partner with, as half or more of players, depending on the platform, play games on previous-gen hardware without ray tracing, games that do not require demanding rendering. But perhaps then cheaply into second-tier bundles for 50-series cards after the 2025 RTX games and perhaps Cyberpunk have been distributed in the first bundle round.

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Nowadays, cheaper outsourced beta testing is used :smiley: - a big problem in PC testing is that there’s an infinite number of different machine configurations, and rare compatibility issues can’t possibly be caught in internal testing except by incredible luck.

And still, you might underestimate how much of these optimizations NVIDIA does for these game studios just to ensure their exclusive tech is included. The ratio in development work is something like 90-95% NVIDIA, 5-10% the game studio’s team. There have probably been a couple of NVIDIA guys sitting in Remedy’s office for the past couple of months doing this. And there’s no bill afterwards; on the contrary, they gain marketing visibility.

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