Remedy - The pride of Finnish AAA games (Part 2)

Yeah, the distribution costs aren’t exactly at a flat 25%, which explains the difference. There are also calculations in the rows outside the table regarding how the assumed marketing expenses are allocated across different quarters and how they’ve been taken into account when calculating Annapurna’s share. So, behind the scenes, it basically calculates cumulative gross revenues from launch, subtracts assumed distribution and marketing costs, and only then calculates Annapurna’s share. Lots of assumptions on top of assumptions.

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Thanks! Although I thought I understood, I just want to double-check that in this case, the assumption is that Remedy receives >50% of net sales even before recoup, i.e., in proportion to its own investments, right?

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I have assumed that Annapurna receives approximately 50% of the “Net Revenue” (= Gross Revenue - distribution costs - marketing costs) until the estimated investment of approximately EUR 25 million in the game’s production budget has been covered. After this, the assumption is that Annapurna receives approximately 30% of the net revenue.

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Exactly. Thanks again for clarifying and for breaking it down for me :handshake:

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Yeah, so this definitely beat Inderes’ forecast by a country mile…
Is this a screaming buy now?

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The webcast was short and concise. In my opinion, nothing particularly new was presented compared to the morning report. I think JC presented himself quite well. The practical test for JC will be how Resonant performs outside the traditional EU/US markets.

Looking forward to Atte’s interview.

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I watched the webcast too and I agree.

JC was dressed casually in jeans and a sweatshirt/knit. Even this choice of clothing can sometimes signal something, or then it’s just a matter of taste.

The main takeaway from the strategy was that in the future, they will focus on their core strength, which is single-player games. Big investments are being made into the Chinese market. He mentioned having a positive outlook on game pre-orders. He stated that the headcount is at a roughly appropriate level right now. Regarding AI, he mentioned that it can be used here and there, but as a whole, its use is still very minimal.

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Caught my eye on Kauppalehti: Carnegie raises Remedy’s target price to 14.50 euros (prev. 13.00 eur.)

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In my opinion, the market is not taking into account Remedy’s new localization regions for Control Resonant, which are significant additions compared to the previous Control, especially if the game receives good reviews. China alone is a major localization addition, as are Brazil and Japan. The game will be released in eight languages (dubs and text), and those three aforementioned are new localizations. The other languages are English, German, Italian, French, and Spanish. The game also supports subtitles in 15 languages, which also include new additions. I believe these localization additions will create significant numbers of new fans in the long run, and my own guess is that it will bring a +10-30% increase in game sales.

As market areas, the countries/regions in question are approximately the following sizes:

China, which has the highest potential, was a market area of $50-66 billion in 2025, and there are hundreds of millions of potential players.

Japan’s gaming market is approximately $20-30+ billion, and the Japanese reportedly appreciate well-executed localizations.

Brazil/Portugal is also a significant region, with an estimated 100+ million players in Brazil. The market size is approximately $3-5+ billion. In Brazil, localization plays a significant role, and it potentially opens doors more widely to the LatAm (Latin America) region.

Together, these regions could increase game sales by several hundred thousand units, and across those three areas, there are an estimated total of approximately 850 million players, of which even a small fraction would be enough to significantly grow the sales of Resonant (and also the upcoming Max Payne).

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The new localizations are a good addition, and these days AI translations of text have significantly lowered costs. However, I wouldn’t count on them providing a very significant boost to sales. Western games don’t tend to succeed in Asia. People there mostly play Asian games, mobile games, and multiplayer games. Remedy’s games have always been works that strongly reflect Western culture and pop culture.

Edit. Regarding Steam, it’s unlikely we even know if it will make it into the Chinese version’s catalog. As far as I know, the console market in China is pretty much non-existent.

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The gaming industry is aware that Western games generally haven’t sold well in Asia. However, there are examples where sales have increased significantly due to localization. Therefore, I think it is realistic to assume that sales will increase by +10-30% compared to a situation where localizations were left undone. Below are some examples:

Against The Storm increased its game sales in Asia thanks to, among other things, Simplified Chinese, and China’s share of sales was 32%, meaning 130,000 copies were sold in China at launch. Similar games without localization have usually gained around a 2% market share. The indie game Mortal Glory saw “monstrous” growth in Asia due to localizations. Additionally, Simplified Chinese is one of the most used languages on the Steam platform, and occasionally it even surpasses English.

In Brazil, titles like The Last of Us Part II, FIFA, and PES localized into Portuguese achieved significantly higher sales, although football games are included, so the comparison isn’t entirely realistic. Sales of the game Mad GunZ jumped considerably when the localization update was released. The gaming industry estimates that in optimal cases, sales can increase by up to +40%. Top localized games almost without exception jump higher on the sales charts.

It’s harder to get statistics or sales data from Japan, but the Japanese appreciate localizations, and I don’t see it doing any harm at least. Even small growth is welcomed, plus the Japanese like weird things.

The most significant point, however, is that these localization additions reach an estimated 85% of players on the Steam platform, and Steam’s algorithms favor localized games and increase sales, in the best cases even dramatically. Therefore, I estimate game sales will grow by +10-30% compared to a situation where the game had not been localized for those markets.

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JC’s interview

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The first Control is certainly pulling in impressive numbers. Of course, the price per unit is next to nothing, but this can be seen as marketing for Control 2 (Control Resonant). Wasn’t it announced last year that Control had sold 5 million copies during its lifecycle? And according to the annual report, the game sold about a million copies last year. Now we’ve already broken the 6 million mark, so that’s a really strong pace for an old game.

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This new CEO seems quite pleasant and gave some very convincing praise for the new game. Even though I don’t have time to play anymore, my expectations are definitely high :flexed_biceps:

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Control Resonant featured in the Summer Games Fest (June 5, 2026) promo video.

Around the 0:40 mark:

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Here is the company report from Atte following Q1. :slight_smile:

We reiterate our Buy recommendation for Remedy and our target price of EUR 19.0. The Q1 figures were clearly better than our expectations, as both development fees and game sales surprised positively. In the big picture, however, the Q1 figures are a secondary matter, as the most important game launch in Remedy’s history is just around the corner. We still believe that Control Resonant will sell well and that the game’s release will bring momentum to Remedy’s share. In our opinion, the stock valuation is also at an attractive level relative to the company’s long-term potential.

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An esteemed guest at the Espoo studio :+1:

We’re talking about Resident Evil director Kōshi Nakanishi. Hopefully, some great deals were hammered out in the sauna.

https://x.com/i/status/2052750864771608611

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A bit of visibility every now and then in the Xbox news feed as well, thanks to Play Anywhere support. Control Resonant: Remedy on the Exciting Sequel, Xbox Play Anywhere, and Self-Publishing - Xbox Wire

The functionality itself will hardly increase sales one bit, but at least it gets some column inches.

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At the current share price, the market is pricing in a sales disappointment. I see several reasons for optimism:

  • strong control IP
  • day 1 steam
  • China & Lat Am investments (potential for a positive surprise if it finds an audience)
  • larger audience in the new genre; apparently melee is particularly popular in Asia
  • ”we will show muscle in gameplay,” the CEO emphasized
  • lower budget → fast recoup

I am long, position growing.

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I completely agree. Resonant has all the hallmarks of becoming a massive success. Who knows, we might even have a new Elden Ring in the making here. Personally, I’m holding onto all 3,000 shares (kpl) firmly!

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