I don’t understand the logic that Control wouldn’t compete with all other games. Of course it competes, and games take sales away from each other. Some more, some less. There are three big releases in the same week. Are there enough reasons to choose Control over a stronger IP like Silent Hill or a Capcom release buoyed by a massive streak of sales and critical success? Before that, money might have already been spent on Wolverine, leading people to skip all these releases.
Personally, a hundred times out of a hundred, I would take a slightly buggier release in a quiet August over a more polished release in a massive September rush.
Now was supposed to be the time for the game that generates money quickly at a high average price. Long sales tails and 2027 sales at a low average price don’t provide much comfort right now if the launch fails. The risks for that are elevated due to the massive competition. It is also quite clear that more announcements for September are coming. I’m sure something like Gears of War and a Nintendo release will still squeeze onto the list. We will probably know the final list in a week.