Relais - Series Combiner for Automotive Aftermarket

I’ll post my own scattered thoughts on the results in this thread as well.

It was a somewhat soft quarter in terms of profitability, there’s no getting around that. However, a quarter is too short a timeframe to draw significant conclusions in one direction or the other.

After Q3, investor expectations were clearly higher, as the market gave a bit of a slap after the result. Though, the closing price on the earnings day was only about -5%, so there was probably some of that famous margin of safety in the valuation, as a worse thrashing was avoided despite the slight disappointment.

The weaker profitability was explained by, among other things, low (workshop?) capacity utilization, and apparently, the earnings contribution from the Norwegian workshops acquired in the spring was poor. The numbers weren’t opened up in more detail regarding that. As maintenance/workshop services increase their share of the group’s net sales, profitability also decreases structurally slightly when measured by profit margin, but on the other hand, the return on capital should be better in that business.

In the Q&A, it was said about the Norwegian workshops that they are currently implementing best practices and lessons from Finland and Sweden to improve profitability, etc. This was successfully done in Finland with Raskone back in the day, where the absolute result was more than doubled very quickly.

Raskone Oy:

There will always be fluctuation between quarters. Q1 has been very good for Relais so far in terms of weather; utilization rates have definitely risen from the Q4 situation, as the freezing weather has lasted for weeks and there’s no end in sight yet. There might even be a positive surprise in store. The CFO at least couldn’t keep a straight face when asked about this.

Then to the more interesting and essential part, i.e., long-term matters. The new strategy/financial targets haven’t been published yet, but the new CEO’s speeches gave some hints. It strongly seems that we will get what you would expect from a Swedish CEO, i.e., the familiar tricks and metrics from Swedish serial acquirers operating with decentralized business models. :smiley:

How many times did we hear the word decentralized or capital allocation or capital efficiency in the presentation? :smiley: Additionally, it seemed that the Profit/Working Capital ratio (return on working capital %) or similar, familiar from those same serial acquirers in our western neighbor, would be introduced into the new strategy as a key mindset and metric. All in all, sensible thoughts from the new CEO: focusing on core operations, aiming to encourage every business unit to improve return on capital, and allocating capital where it yields the best returns. Of course, the main owners will continue to decide if part of this capital goes back into the owners’ pockets. It will be interesting to hear before summer what the new strategy and targets actually contain.

Momentum Group’s capital allocation, for example, is built around this P/WC, which was just discussed in the serial acquirer thread. In itself an obvious concept, but effective when implemented with discipline.

Summarized from Momentum’s annual report:

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Petri completed a new company report on Relais late Sunday evening :slight_smile:

Relais’ Q4 figures clearly fell short of our forecasts, as organic revenue development in particular was sluggish in both businesses. In our estimation, the cost structure was partly burdened by non-recurring items, so the Q4 sluggishness was not fully reflected in our forecasts for the coming years. Reflecting the lower forecasts, we are however lowering our target price to EUR 18.0 (previously EUR 19.0), but we reiterate our Accumulate recommendation for the moderately valued stock. The Q4 interview with Relais’ CEO can be viewed at this link.

Quoted from the report:

Financial position is in good shape

In 2025, Relais generated EUR 33.9 million in operating cash flow, while the company’s investments grew alongside business growth to EUR 5.2 million (EUR 2.9 million in 2024). Consequently, after the payment of lease liabilities, free cash flow settled at EUR 12.7 million. The company used significantly more funds than this for acquisitions, so at the end of 2025, the company’s net debt (excluding lease liabilities) was EUR 105.7 million. This corresponds to a 2.3x multiple relative to our 2026 EBITA forecast, which fully considers the completed acquisitions. However, this figure does not include the most recent acquisitions, but considering the forecasted cash flow for the current year, the leverage ratio will remain at approximately the current level. Based on the company’s comments, it will focus in the short term on reducing debt levels to strengthen capacity for future acquisitions and on improving the efficiency of current operations.

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Apparently Boreo also made it into Relais’s report :smiley: @Petri_Gostowski

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Thanks for pointing that out! What a confusing bug, I have no idea how that ended up there :joy:

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The CEO is topping up; his holdings now seem to total 12,000 shares, i.e., approximately €180,000. All the talk about capital allocation carries a bit more weight when you’re putting more and more of your own skin in the game at the same time :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

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Today, I sat down with Petri in front of the cameras to go through Relais’ latest updates and how they are navigating even a softer market. :smiley: And there was plenty to discuss, with over 20 minutes of content!

As a defensive company, Relais has succeeded in navigating even through difficult market cycles. Combined with successful capital allocation, earnings growth has been impressive over the years. Analyst Petri Gostowski reflects on Relais’ performance last year and the outlook for the current year.

Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:14 A soft end to the year
03:38 Strong development as a listed company
06:33 Shift in focus from wholesale towards workshop and maintenance business
09:27 Forecasts for the current year were cut
10:49 CEO transition
13:27 Dividend cut & hybrid loan
19:37 Valuation

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Annual report published today. Over 200 pages of evening reading right there:

Relais seems to have dropped quite a bit again due to general sentiment. Personally, I can’t see how recent events would have a significantly negative impact on Relais’ business. I’m starting to see a good buying opportunity here again, as I’m expecting a very strong Q1 report.

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There were a couple of months of real freezing temperatures during Q1, which is about 2 months more than in the comparison period. Freezing weather is famously the spare parts dealer’s best salesman.

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Here is the group structure from page 103 as a reminder for myself and others. Luckily, there is no entrance exam for shareholders.

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I returned as a shareholder yesterday when the share price dipped. I’ve been reading through reports and thinking that this start will certainly be a good one for the full year. As Aarni noted in 2024, a good start to the year usually carries the company through a good spring/summer as well. Essentially, due to the weather, so-called extra forced repairs are done in January-February, and then maintenance is carried out at a better time when mechanics are available again in the spring. The company now has a significant number of workshops in Norway and Sweden, where the winter was, as I understand it, the coldest since 2010. In the short term, the strengthening Norwegian and Swedish krona also provides support.

Further reports:

Nordea, fair value 17.3 - 21.1e

https://research.nordea.com/api/reportfileapi?id=64ab6b82-6f70-426e-b9bf-aa5e20680b91

Redeye, Fair value 12 - 37e.

https://www.redeye.se/api/articles/download-file/62eb798e-6a19-3d0e-8090-47f35af063e1/Relais%20(Q4%20review)%3A%20Stable%20performance%20despite%20challenges

Carnegie, fair value 15.9 - 19.4e.

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I have also been keeping an eye on Relais for a few years, but every time I look closer, I decide to leave the ownership to others for now.

Relais’s return on invested capital doesn’t seem to be edging upwards. For a fast-growing serial acquirer, it might be lower at first, sure, but I would expect it to improve by this stage. Instead, in 2025, it dropped back to 10.5%.

In addition, the company’s capital efficiency declined as working capital swelled much faster than revenue. This is supposedly partly explained by acquisitions, but still.

Return on net working capital, a profitability metric favored by the Swedes, was below 45% in 2025, which is considered the benchmark for quality in Sweden.

I think I also challenged the previous CEO regarding profitability in the ROAST.

The company also has a significant amount of debt. I’m wary of hybrids, as well as dividends. And especially when the company is simultaneously utilizing an expensive hybrid loan AND paying dividends. :smiley:

The new CEO writes in the annual report that

“With a broader field of operation and increased scale, we see clear opportunities to further improve our efficiency and profitability across the portfolio… In 2026, we will also focus strongly on operational excellence throughout the group, which will increase efficiency and profitability as well as accelerate organic growth.”

which suggests that they are trying to adjust profitability to a more respectable level, which from my perspective is exactly the right move. Growing revenue can be nice, but it’s no joy for shareholders if it isn’t very profitable. :smiley:

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Good pushback! Responding quickly during my lunch break.

I agree regarding the return on capital metrics; they are drifting in the wrong direction! These are the kinds of blemishes of an early-stage serial acquirer that a long-term investor has to look past :smiley:

In my opinion, the weak returns on capital are largely explained by the brisk pace of acquisitions so far. In these cases, capital employed shows up immediately on the balance sheet, but the impact on the earnings/cash flow side is reflected with a lag! For example, in 2025, a massive €116 million in revenue was acquired. For comparison, the 2024 revenue was approx. €322 million.

Indebtedness is admittedly somewhat high, but in the inherently very defensive commercial vehicle aftermarket, one can sustain more leverage than in a typical business. Relais didn’t blow up during the 22-23 interest rate shock like many others did :smiley:

There aren’t many sensible arguments against the criticism of dividends and the hybrid [bond] :smiley: The hybrid itself was quite a sensible option for financing that large Norwegian acquisition (Team Verksted), if the alternative would have been a share issue or calling off the deal. Generally speaking, however, it has been very questionable to distribute massive dividends over the years—from memory, cumulatively nearly €40 million between 2020–2025! :warning: Even if they say they only distribute a small dividend, only 30% of EPS or something like that, the impact accumulates over the years.

Underneath all this “clutter,” however, I believe there is a very good serial acquirer engine that buys decent defensive businesses at 6-8x EBITA, which translates into a quite nice double-digit return.

I hope the new strategy, to be published before summer, will have a particular focus on return on capital and efficiency. Relais now has quite good platforms across the Nordics to develop and can make slightly smaller acquisitions here and there as suitable opportunities arise. Let’s say that on a 2-3+ year horizon, the return on capital and efficiency metrics should be in much better shape. Perhaps at the same time, indebtedness could be made a bit more moderate and the dividend could be cut.

The investment case is interesting because the company might attract broader interest once the aforementioned metrics are comparable to peers and growth can continue to be generated by reinvesting cash flows :smiley:

EDIT: I want to emphasize that returns on capital were already trending clearly upwards in 2024, for example, but the massive acquisitions in 2025 caused a setback. A massive amount of capital was tied up, but the earnings/cash flow will follow with a lag.

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My current thesis is that investors are currently placing a bit too much weight on the figures of a single quarter. As has been noted, weather and extreme cold have a significant impact on Relais. Q4 was warm; the severe frosts essentially began at the turn of the year and lasted for a long time.

I assume these will be clearly reflected in the Q1 figures, at which point the sentiment may shift again, leading to too much weight potentially being given to the strong Q1 results.

These weather variations have no significance for the long-term story, but investors seem to sometimes overemphasize short-term fluctuations, which is reflected in the share price movements.

Time will tell how right I am with this view.

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Transport is the strongest performer among the sectors, with the headcount growing by more than 2% in January–February compared to 2025. Industry is also in the positive.

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Unfortunately, the recent rapid rise in diesel prices is hitting the transport sector hard and, through it, the entire Finnish economy, whose “promising” start is once again being shot down :smiley: From an investment case perspective, the transport sector and Relais experienced a similar situation in 2022, so at least we are not facing the completely unknown again, unless the situation escalates significantly from here.

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It might be that I’m looking at this too narrowly, but I personally like Relais as an investment because its business operations should keep humming along quite nicely even in this type of situation. The fact that fuel is more expensive doesn’t in any way remove the need for vehicle maintenance. A vehicle needs to get back on the road as quickly as possible when problems arise.

Of course, this will likely have an impact on certain additional sales in this industry too, if we are talking about products that aren’t essential for the vehicle’s operation. There is also the fact that as transport companies’ costs rise, it could certainly lead to insolvency. There isn’t much joy in sales if the money doesn’t eventually end up in the cash flow.

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I agree that future profitability development will play a major role in whether Relais will be an excellent investment going forward or something below that. On the other hand, if the company moves forward in that regard, I’d rather own the stock already before the profitability improvement happens. Because you don’t really have to pay much for that option right now.

And Relais has been quite a decent investment already, even if it isn’t yet as polished in all respects as the top serial acquirers. (as long as you didn’t buy during the COVID hype when almost everything was really expensive). If you calculate the CAGR including dividends since the listing, it gets comfortably into double-digit percentages.

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Last week, the serial acquirers’ festival was held in Stockholm, organized by Redeye. Here is Christian’s presentation. The video sheds some light on the topic of capital efficiency, which has recently been discussed constructively in the thread.

At the end of the video, in the Q&A section, Christian states that he will bring the following to Relais:

and

One must truly hope that the new CEO’s stronger focus on capital returns genuinely materializes in the group’s companies.

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Since there aren’t too many serial acquirers in the Finnish stock market, how have people here viewed Auroora? I have to note immediately that I haven’t seen many people compare Auroora to Relais at all; the comparison seems to be made only with Boreo. For example, Esa Juntunen evaluated Auroora in his new “Omavaraisuushaaste” (Self-Sufficiency Challenge) blog, and it was mentioned there that the only comparable company in the Finnish stock market would be Boreo.

Things like this always remind me that even though I probably follow Relais most closely out of my own holdings, it seems we are still very much under the radar of the general public. Of course, this is a bit of a wild interpretation based on perhaps one blog, but maybe this also tells something.

However, I must correct what I just mentioned: @JP199 mentioned Relais in Auroora’s own thread, and I thought the perspective was excellent, i.e., how companies calculate certain key figures differently.

I personally really like the serial acquirer concept, and because of this, I have often compared Auroora to Relais in my own head. In my calculations, the EV/EBITA for both companies is roughly 10. Looking at the return on invested capital, Auroora seems slightly more efficient (15% vs. 11%). Of course, the companies calculate this differently (Auroora adjusts lease liabilities out), so in reality, the difference is smaller, and in my opinion, Relais’s return last year has been penalized by large acquisitions.

All in all, the valuation of these companies is, in my opinion, on roughly the same playing field, and since Relais does have a track record of several years to show, I certainly won’t be subscribing to Auroora. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if I join their story at some point.

It would be nice to hear others’ thoughts if anyone else has compared these two companies. I guess this message could have been posted in the Auroora thread, but as a Relais man, it ended up here :slight_smile:

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Analyst Group interviewed Gebauer.

Promises a roadshow for the summer to go over the new strategy; the company is currently relatively unknown to investors.

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