Rapala as an investment

For these gentlemen, of course, still moderate additions, but we’ll take them. :wink:

As I also follow the same signals, I only just now noticed, a bit late, a corresponding “negative” signal. So, the previous CEO has actually already sold his holdings during July. It was in July that Rapala’s half-year results were also published…

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Sportmans Warehouse released its Q3 report for the period ending November 1st. Below is a small analysis; the company turns over approximately 1.2 billion USD annually, with fishing product sales accounting for about 10% of this. It widely sells Rapala products.

Fishing

Net sales were $331.3 million, an increase of 2.2%, compared to $324.3 million in the third quarter of fiscal year 2024. The increase in net sales was primarily due to increased sales in our Hunting and Shooting, Fishing and Apparel departments as we continue to emphasize inventory in-stocks, and our focused strategy to win the seasons in hunting and fishing to ensure we have the right inventory at the right location at the right time. In addition, the sales growth was driven by our strategic decision to lean into personal protection, including less-lethal alternatives

Gross profit was $108.7 million, or 32.8% of net sales, compared to $103.1 million or 31.8% of net sales in the third quarter of fiscal year 2024. This 100 basis-point improvement, was largely driven by stronger product margins from healthier inventory, improved shrink, and increased sales in the Fishing department, which has an overall higher margin profile.

→ Fishing has generated sales growth and continues to be a high-margin operation.

General from the report

“During the third quarter, we remained focused on strengthening our balance sheet and improving working capital efficiency in a challenging operating environment,” said Jennifer Fall Jung, Chief Financial Officer of Sportsman’s Warehouse. “We reduced total inventory by $14.2 million year-over-year and by $19.5 million sequentially, while ensuring our stores were appropriately positioned for the fall hunting, fishing, and holiday selling seasons. Our inventory strategy continues to prioritize core, seasonally relevant, and higher-turning products, and we remain committed to reducing overall inventory levels as we drive improved efficiency in our operating model.”

The Company is adjusting its sales guidance for fiscal year 2025 and now expects net sales to be flat to up slightly and anticipates adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $22 million to $26 million, reflecting a tough fourth quarter environment due to a challenged US consumer. The Company expects capital expenditures for 2025 to be less than $25 million, primarily related to strategic technological investments, such as planogramming, merchandising and replenishment and store scheduling tools, and general store fleet maintenance. Additionally, the company anticipates to end the year with less than $330 million in inventory and lower debt, reflecting working capital efficiency.

→ meaning inventory levels are being reduced, the upper end of sales growth is cut from 0-3.5% → 0-”up slightly”, the EBITDA forecast is cut, and overall inventory levels have been reduced.

So, a mixed feeling; on the one hand, fishing seems to be the best-selling category quarter after quarter, but generally, the outlook for the next quarter has weakened. It’s hard to say how much of the inventory reduction will affect fishing products if their sales are performing better relative to other product categories.

Link:

https://investors.sportsmans.com/news-releases/news-release-details/sportsmans-warehouse-holdings-inc-announces-third-quarter-2025

Dicks sporting goods Q3

Dicks released its Q3 report for the period ending November 1st. Dicks is the largest sporting goods retailer in the United States. They also widely sell Rapala products; however, fishing as a whole is not as relevant a product category for them, and fishing is not directly mentioned as a product category in their reports.

General

● Delivers 5.7% Comp Sales Growth for the DICK’S Business

● Raises full year 2025 guidance for comparable sales growth for the DICK’S Business to a range of 3.5% to 4.0%, up from 2.0% to 3.5% previously

● Raises full year 2025 earnings per diluted share guidance for the DICK’S Business to a range of $14.25 to 14.55, up from $13.90 to 14.50 previously

→ Dicks’ general sentiment for the end of the year is better than Sportmans Warehouse’s. This might somewhat alleviate the negative general sentiment from their report.

Link

https://investors.dicks.com/news/news-details/2025/DICKS-Sporting-Goods-Inc--Reports-Third-Quarter-Results-Raises-2025-Outlook-for-the-DICKS-Business/default.aspx

Edit*

There was an article from GuruFocus on Yahoo Finance that also estimated the growth of Sportmans Warehouse’s segments:

  • Hunting and Shooting Sports Growth: 5.3% increase in Q3.

  • Fishing Growth: 14.1% increase in Q3.

  • Apparel Growth: 1.4% increase in Q3.

  • E-commerce Growth: 8% increase in the quarter

→ could indicate good news for the fishing market, especially since it’s so weather-dependent, growth/decline in one area usually correlates well with growth/decline elsewhere in the same region.

Link

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News came out in October that Rapala and Clam Outdoors are starting a collaboration, where “Rapala Canada will be responsible for the distribution, sales, and marketing of Clam Outdoors’ entire product range in Canada. The partnership aims to streamline operations, expand market reach, and ensure that Clam products are more readily available to Canadian retailers and consumers.” Clam Outdoors is a Minnesota-based company specializing mainly in ice fishing products. This speaks well of the supply chains being functional enough to take on other companies’ products for distribution. Annoyingly poor communication from Rapala, though…

Clam products on Rapala Canada’s website:

Regarding the extent of distribution, for example, the retailer LOTW Sports Headquarters has over 200 CLAM product items for sale and 250 Rapala product items. With both companies having their headquarters and warehouses in Minnesota, the synergy benefits from combining distribution are likely quite good in such cases.

Link

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Rapala VMC Oyj adds Q1 and Q3 interim reports to its financial reporting in 2026 | Kauppalehti

Great news.

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Here are Thomas’s comments on Rapala’s transition to quarterly reporting. :slight_smile:
Quarterly reporting improves the transparency of the company’s investor communication and makes it easier to monitor the company’s development. This news has no impact on our forecasts or our view of the company.

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Investors’ wishes have clearly been heard! Presumably, the business reviews will be slightly lighter than the H1 report and the financial statements release, but this will in any case nicely break the information vacuum, which has sometimes been too long from the investors’ perspective.

It remains to be seen how difficult it will be to forecast Rapala’s quarters initially, as no comparative figures are available.

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If you wear a bit of a tinfoil hat, this also alleviates the fear that a “Cityconit” move would have been made with Rapala.

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Share price at an all-time low and valuation at a joke level. Then the main owner buys it out from the stock exchange.
Now that the group is increasing transparency and taking on costs and trouble, it sounds like the main owner is interested in the company’s stock market journey :+1:

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And here is a new company report on Rapala from Thomas. :slight_smile:

We have taken into account Rapala’s balance sheet refinancing and made slight adjustments to our operational forecasts. The updated financing agreement removed the short-term liquidity risk of the share and lowered the cost of financing, but the utilization of a hybrid loan as part of the new financing package lowered our earnings forecasts for the coming years. We reiterate our reduce recommendation and revise our target price to 1.3 euros (previously 1.4 euros).

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In 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by less than 8%. A bit of Vilppo would be welcome :slight_smile:

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As Rapala updates its strategy, we may see if my growth expectations are too conservative compared to the company’s goals. However, in my opinion, pursuing growth should not be a priority; instead, attention should be focused on profitability and strengthening the balance sheet. Rapala can certainly achieve growth if it wishes by expanding the Rapala brand into new product categories, increasing sales of third-party products, and expanding its own distribution. However, in my opinion, focusing attention on the most profitable markets and categories would be justified. Historically, the impact of strong growth on profitability does not seem particularly flattering, which, in my opinion, supports focusing on the quality of revenue.
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