The index has a base year of 2015. At that time, 8500 ARA apartments were built. Currently, that state-owned entity, which is responsible for state-subsidized housing production, is Varke, and according to the latest data, the rolling 12-month production is 9000 apartments, and the year-to-date change from the previous year is +16%. Of those 9000 apartments, just under 2400 are ASO apartments. ASO production is expected to decline during next year, as, to this knowledge, the last ASO apartments will be completed. Earlier this year, it was estimated that 2025 starts for Varke production would remain at 6000 apartments. Therefore, one could assume that that curve will need to be scaled downwards again next year, because market-rate housing production will no longer be able to fill the gap caused by the end of ASO production, even if it were to receive a boost from somewhere.
Housing Fair: Huge visitor disappointment | Kauppalehti
Readable for a moment without a paywall from the Amppari link. This does not bode well for the construction industry when new construction fails to attract more interest. Expected 100,000 visitors, 65,000 came.
Everything is relative. The Housing Fair is quite a long distance from the so-called congested Finland, which certainly has an effect, especially on casual visitors.
If one compares this to the almost complete halt in new home sales, the number of visitors is surprisingly high in my opinion.
Oulu’s housing fair area was just as far from the congested south in 2005, and back then there were 121,000 visitors, almost double the amount compared to this year. In addition, the population of Oulu and its merged municipalities has increased by about 40,000 since 2005.
Rakli Business Review.
Moderate growth in 2025, upturn in 2026.
Residential construction continues to slump, and it’s futile to expect cost inputs to become cheaper as a remedy; materials have remained at an elevated level, and wages are rising.
In itself, there isn’t much new production inventory available; it will be sold out before new apartments are completed. But weak demand, the chain reaction in housing sales, cheaper older apartments, etc., etc.
Overall, the forecast for construction this year has been weakened, and some of the growth will shift to next year. The value of construction output is now expected to grow
2.5–3.0 percent in 2025 and 7 percent in 2026.
rakli-suhdannekatsaus-syyskuu-2025.pdf https://share.google/RgxgVSmCitKmfHivQ
Jussi Halme has made a video related to the construction industry. 
Finnish construction is currently facing major challenges – housing construction has plummeted to a historical low, and thousands of skilled workers have sought employment abroad. But at the same time, the renovation boom, massive government investments, and large infrastructure projects are keeping the industry alive.
Is a long dark period ahead, or the beginning of a new growth cycle? In this video, we dive deep into the current state of construction, the differences between various sectors, and where the few glimmers of hope can be found.
Solid analysis and insight in Haahtela’s Tender Price Index business cycle review.
I myself predict that the downturn in construction will continue, but change and recovery will eventually come surprisingly quickly and imperceptibly.
Volume of Granted Building Permits Decreased by 3% Year-on-Year in July 2025 | Statistics Finland
New data on the number of granted building permits.
Haahtela’s stark text on top of his forecast, which should reflect offer prices / costs.
Thanks to everyone for the good points,
-interest rates - even though they have fallen - do not give real returns to housing investors
-cannot afford to move from weak areas, cannot get enough base money from one’s own to do anything meaningful in municipalities with migration gains
-good average earnings development does not mean, for example, that young people can afford first homes
-those who bought a home a few years ago are in the starting situation, i.e., the debt-to-asset ratio of the home is unchanged after house prices have fallen, i.e., debt repayment capacity vs. bank policies
-after weak sales years, sales pressure / disappointed housing investors, housing funds, etc.
-economic confidence encourages taking on more debt
-on the other hand, the weak state of the housing market creates a situation where people don’t dare to change homes when there is no information about their own sale, chain reaction
-etc.
And as the logic goes, no permits - no buildings.
Article for subscribers only, but I’ll venture to quote this much from it:
As late as April, Confederation of Finnish Construction Industries RT, representing companies in the sector, optimistically predicted that construction would grow by 4.0 percent this year and 6.0 percent next year.
This will not be achieved even remotely. In its revised forecast, RT expects this year’s growth to remain below one percent. Next year’s growth is now predicted to be only 3.5 percent.
”The beginning of the year disappointed expectations, and construction output has been weaker than anticipated. This year’s growth will barely reach above zero. Stronger recovery is not expected until 2027 at the earliest,” summarizes Jouni Vihmo, Chief Economist at Confederation of Finnish Construction Industries RT.
It is naturally related to housing investment as well, but let’s put it here as it is naturally related to today’s theme, i.e., the economic outlook published by RT today. A 60-slide set that I need to go through with Sandels later in the evening, but now, as a single pick, one:
Here, if anywhere, it would be nice to get a geographical breakdown alongside it, as in our country it is increasingly divided into two year by year. Since it’s not available (the data would exist,
However, the graph above does not show the number of vacant or empty apartments. Currently, many people sell before buying a new apartment. Does the statistic tell more about long selling times or truly empty apartments? In my estimation, more about the latter.
On Oikotie, in the 15 largest cities, there are 18,000 empty apartments (all housing types, including terraced houses and detached houses). Surely some of these have occupants, because apartment listings are made (usually) when the tenant is still in the apartment. However, for rental apartments, the number better indicates the number of vacant apartments than the data for apartments for sale.
There are always many who put their apartment up for sale before buying a new one. And similarly, statistics always reflect both of these underlying factors. The emphasis simply varies.
As the statistics remain the same from year to year, I would consider the trend and absolute figures to be the most relevant observations. So, we are still clearly on the side where supply exceeds demand.
Published today, in my opinion, a good article about the state of residential construction and the events that have affected the current residential construction market, as well as construction companies that have had self-initiated apartment building production.
Based on the article, no significant change is expected in the growth of production volumes in the residential market during the next 2-3 years.
The worst decline is clearly behind us, but an upward turn is still awaited.
A summary would be nice!
(Surely no one has a paid Helsingin Sanomat subscription?)
What’s notable there is the reversal of the “book-to-bill” ratio, meaning more is being completed than new permits are being issued. And that always leads to a downturn. The scarcity of permits is constantly setting new records, which could gradually support a change in the slope, but I think we’ll be moving horizontally for some time.
The annual sum of the volume of building permits granted for new construction was highest in Uusimaa and Pirkanmaa in September 2025. The volume was higher in nine regions than a year earlier.
In Finland we call this building in growth centers.
Of course, the free fall seen in 2022–2023 is behind us, but
Big decision in Oulu today. The university is moving from Linnanmaa to Kontinkangas, to the site of the old hospital.
This will mean a massive amount of work for the area. In the initial phase, for consultants and designers, work will begin immediately at the start of next year. A huge amount of infrastructure needs to be renewed, and probably the entire public transport concept needs to be rethought from scratch. New housing construction will also be needed in the area.
In Oulu, big projects are starting towards the end of the decade: a multi-purpose arena, a travel center, and the University. These are located within approximately a one-kilometer radius of each other, so there will be plenty of work on the infrastructure side.
I came across this shared by @JHeiskanen
A similar higher education relocation is also underway in Hämeenlinna. HAMK and the city are planning to move the campus either to the site of the bus station or to a lakeside strip on the other side of the road.