JP Morgan has also closed its short position after June 26th, dropping the total short volume to 5.84%, valued at €40M.
Those who have exited their shorts during this month (last holdings noted):
12.6 :: Millennium International Management LP 0.50%
18.6 :: Capital Fund Management 0.54%
21.6 :: Aqr Capital Management 0.59%
22.6 :: Tages Capital LLP 0.53%
26.6 :: JP Morgan Asset Management 0.58%
Citadel Advisors has clearly reduced their position at the same time from 1.3% → 0.74%
So, about half of the shorts have now exited compared to the peak level, but there is still plenty left to keep things in the mud
It is worth remembering that shorting incurs a cost that is generally higher than the cost of an index fund. In short positions, the risk of loss to the upside is infinite, unlike in long investments. The Q2 reporting is approaching, and those portfolio managers at short-selling fund houses will have to report their quarter. It’s probably not very pleasant to report shorts if the share price has bounced €10 up from that €18 level. Well, the holiday season is ahead and the supervisor is asking for a situation assessment. The stock has risen since the last earnings report. What is the factor that will push the price down? AI is an old story; why hasn’t it pushed it down after the last report?
Based on the point below, I have been expecting the shorts to decrease by at least mid-summer. It’s not nice for the players to hold those positions in the Q2 report either, unless they start building a new case, but there needs to be a story for that. What is the thing that has changed since the report? The Ingmans’ purchases certainly don’t make the situation any easier for the shorters.
I’m not trying to blow my own trumpet here, even though I’ll note that I was (with some luck) fairly correct when I wrote on March 6th in the shorting thread that the situation was interesting to say the least, with shorts at ~8% and the share price suppressed. The analysis was based on the fact that shorts started appearing around the 30 euro mark, and all shorts seemed to be well in the green at that point. AI disruption was a real concern, as investors, myself included, were half-terrified watching what would happen when license sales dried up due to AI. A justifiable fear. However, with the interim report, this fear was mitigated as licenses are still moving, QT is making a profit, and the world didn’t collapse after all. At this stage of AI disruption, it has been noted that AI enhances developers’ work, increases the amount of testing, and needs a master. It is therefore an efficient servant for the master who holds the license.
In fact, with the acquisition of IAR Systems, QT is integrating even deeper into the software layer of critical devices. AI cannot be allowed to run free there without constant quality assurance. Well, this is bordering on the limits of my own expertise, but to the point.
The AI fear in QT’s case has eased. Once the (AI disruption) bogeyman has been taken off the table, it’s better to gradually close the shorts and move on to greener investment pastures. That means shares must be bought to cover the shorts. Tens of millions worth of buying. No wonder the share price has risen after the Q1 results. The ratio of shorts to the total float was very high considering that QT’s valuation was in the average “sluggish” category. There are indeed still shorts open, and they have been closed quite skillfully without a senseless squeeze, even though there has been a need to buy back for millions and millions.
Yeah, it seems Ingman, Etola, and Nieminen had noses like bloodhounds, sensing that a slight rise might be coming at the end of May. Of course, those circles might have better insight than what the retail investors (tuulipuvut) have access to…
Now in June, we might even see it break the thirty-euro mark…
The Ingmanns added 50,000 shares
Vanguard added 13,533 shares
BlackRock added 1,052 shares (Small addition, despite the flagging notification)
Elo Mutual Pension Insurance Company sold 80,000 shares (Our pensions are being sold at bottom prices. The amount is about 0.3% of the share capital, which says something about the size of the current short interest.)
Kari Karvinen sold 7,000 shares
Nordea sold 8,703 shares
Danske Invest sold 183,035 shares
Erkki Etola bought 10,000 shares
Nordnet Fonder bought 23,000 shares
Dimensional Fund Advisors sold 37,987 shares
Overall, the top 30 have reduced their holdings by 243,523 shares. When including the top 100, the reduction is 169,124 shares.
29.54% of the share capital is held outside the top 100. Shorts have been skillfully closed, considering nearly 5% of the share capital has been purchased.
It is unlikely, especially for an insider like Ingman, to engage in trading on a monthly basis. When you look past IAR’s SaaS transition, QT does indeed look cheap. Regardless, significant integrations will initially weigh on margins, but at least in this case, the potential of the acquisition will be realized through cross-selling in the medium term.
Earlier this year, AI specifically was a clear driver leading to overselling across the entire sector. Although AI fears have affected sentiment, so far we have no indications that QT couldn’t generate profit and grow in an AI-driven world. Therefore, I would see this as a restoration of confidence in QT’s growth story as fears were proven to be exaggerated, rather than just trading activity. The reduction in short positions certainly adds pressure to the buy side, but I don’t believe this rally is due to that alone.
Next Monday will mark 6 weeks since the start of the change negotiations. I expect there will be a press release regarding the outcome of the negotiations sometime next week.
Juhapekka Niemi, who has been a member of Qt’s executive management team for a very long time, has left the company to become the Chief Product Officer at another firm.
In its traditional fashion, Qt did not seem to issue a stock exchange release regarding this change in management.
For a long while, there had been no turnover in Qt’s management team. Now, there has been quite a bit of renewal.
I strongly disagree with this. The rise in the “fear factor” was largely driven by a sharp drop in the share price and the resulting fear and despair. When the earnings report dispelled the worst fears, the primary basis for that fear mongering was indeed gone. Here are some statistics:
In December-January, excluding the very end of the month, the normal daily trading volume for QT shares was about 100,000 shares.
December daily volume: 100,000 shares
Ingman purchase: 50,000 shares
Daily volume on June 1: 288,555 shares, which is 188% higher than in December-January. Who is buying?
According to the Financial Supervisory Authority (Finanssivalvonta) website, the Total Short position on April 27, 2026, was 10.46% of the share capital.
Total Short position on June 1, 2026, was 5.05% of the share capital.
Between April 27, 2026, and June 1, 2026, short sellers had to buy back 5.41% of the share capital. QT has 25,470,211 shares, so short sellers have bought 1,377,938 shares.
Shares bought by short sellers: 1,377,938
The 20-day trading volume at a normal rate of 100,000 shares is 2,000,000. If the volume had been normal, more than every second share purchase would have been a short seller covering.
Personally, I am of the opinion that the increase in the short position from the 3% level in mid-January to 10.46% on April 27, 2026, and the subsequent decrease to 5.05% by June 1, 2026, has been the biggest driver of QT’s share price during that period. If you sell now, the buyer is very likely a short seller.
In the last week of January 2026, the price was roughly the same as now (~30e/share), and the short % was rising at about 4%.
Today, June 2nd, 2026, the short % is 4.19%.
Why did the shorts close?
Goldman Sachs and Ingman created a floor.
The SaaS apocalypse narrative in global stock markets was found to be unsustainable. Some software firms continued to generate profits.
The last two quarters for QT were stronger than expected (during the slump of 2026).
Now the best gains from these coverings have been exhausted; I thought it would have risen more. It is positive for long investors that there are likely still unclosed shorts below the disclosure limit, and also these longer-term, +6-12 month shorters have been closing their positions.
Going forward, short coverings won’t blast the share price to the moon, but it is a good “thermometer” for what’s to come.
Additional context on a few of the points discussed above:
Stock Price Movements
In the chart, Qt is shown in green and the software index ETF IGV in red since November.
They moved hand-in-hand until February 26th, when Qt released its disappointing Q4 earnings report. Conversely, the Q1 report on May 13th was seen as a defensive victory, and the stock price has returned to following the IGV. Sector + fundamentals.
Management Team
Of the nine members of the management team at the beginning of 2024, only three remain in the current management team. Additionally, the head of IAR, who was there briefly, left the company.
Niemi left for the fast-growing NestAI led by Peter Sarlin (Linkedin):
Layoffs
In Finland, the workforce is being reduced by approximately 20% (average of 284 employees in Q1/26, reducing by 56). Perhaps a similar scale applies to other office locations.
