Or will it be postponed to 2026 or canceled? Previously, when there has been a mention of December’s postponed deals, they have indeed materialized in Q1.
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From a certain angle, it’s good that the stock price and results are taking a hit now - let’s see if there will be M&A interest in the company, as the most enthusiastic have occasionally buzzed about it, and the company still seems to have a certain moat. In these circumstances, the main owner(s) are more sensitive to ‘do or die’, and then M&A feelers are more receptive. Is the company still a diamond or a myth - that might be put to the test now.
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Did anyone watch the webcast? Apparently, no rabbit was pulled out of a hat there, as the slump has only deepened?
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Perhaps this could be highlighted from the earnings info: in maintaining the guidance, reliance was placed on the conversion of the current sales pipeline. Conversion assumptions are a combination of bottom-up from salespeople (built customer by customer) and historical conversion rates. In the Q&A, there was talk about how reliable these assumptions are.
The report will then contain digested insights 
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1.Other expenses largely as expected: Marketing summit, more purchased R&D, recruitment investments, and expenses related to the acquisition.
2.If they can deliver, they will stay within the promised range, as orders are already in.
3.Q4 will be the busiest again.
4.Automotive has taken the biggest hit - slight improvement in outlook.
Not the end of the world in my opinion, though the market disagrees.
Edit: Cash position has strengthened further.
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Let’s put the webcast here too. Qt’s webcasts seem to be mostly Q&A sections already 
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When a large deal falls into the comparison period, the following year’s column looks bad.
The Q2/24 comparison period was relatively strong
“In the second quarter of 2024, Qt Group’s revenue grew by 22 percent in comparable currencies and was 53 million euros. The quarter was clearly stronger compared to the first quarter of the year. Developer license sales grew very strongly. In addition, growth was boosted by a significant new license deal concluded in North America in June.”
Large deals distort quarterly results, and achieving the guidance requires a good end to the year. So, nothing new for a Qt investor.
If the entire year results in zero growth, then at that point, the validity of the investment case will be re-evaluated.
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1000 pcs Purchase. You can do better, Tuukka 
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Great that there’s insider buying after a weak result!
Tuukka already owns a pretty good chunk, so in that sense, it’s a “small stake” in the overall picture. However, I want to think that 50k isn’t just thrown away like that. 
It just occurred to me that if the company trusts in reaching its guidance, or even very close to it, and trusts its own views on future growth… Wouldn’t now be a pretty excellent time to buy back its own shares? If the 2027 targets remain unchanged, this shouldn’t be terribly expensive now. With share buybacks, the company could communicate that the rest of the year is genuinely brightening up and the product is competitive. Now there’s a bit of can-kicking in the air, and it raises the question for me whether a touchscreen will really come to every toothbrush after all.
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He probably bought even after the spring negative, so I don’t give much weight to those.
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In my opinion, this also heavily tests management’s credibility, regarding whether the guidance will be met or not. Since 2022, a negative profit warning has been issued every year, including this year. If a second profit warning were to be issued this year, it would be quite difficult to trust management’s forecasts in the future.
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And even before that, the guidance was met with deferred receivables (to the decimal point), acquisitions, and changes in the billing model. There’s nothing inherently wrong with those, but it’s worth keeping in mind as a precaution if one wants to compare revenue growth to the growth of the Qt ecosystem.
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OP and Kimmo Stenvall
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This Turunen sold 12,000 shares last summer, just under a year ago, when the share price was over 90 euros, grossing over a million from them. In my opinion, it’s perhaps a bit questionable for top management to act as speculators with their own company’s shares in the market, but everyone is free to have their own opinion on that.
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Since there have been questions here about watching that webcast, I have to bring up the excellent transcript feature in webcasts (Qt, Webcast, Q2'25 - Inderes / button below the video). From that, you can quickly go through the webcast/find relevant parts for yourself 
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The webcast has been watched a couple of times.
I’m a bit surprised by the depth of today’s earnings report dip.
Similarly, the talk about a negative earnings warning risk is a bit strange, even from analysts. QT’s boss stated clearly (in plain English) that H2 deals are already in the pipeline, meaning they already have a good idea of H2’s revenue and profit, and therefore kept the guidance unchanged. However, it’s already a week into August.
The aforementioned matter was communicated surprisingly clearly, though, before December, many things can happen.
Of course, there’s uncertainty in everything nowadays, but the guidance should have been corrected today if there was clear reason to doubt it.
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Well, one could argue against this. For several quarters in a row, deals have been in the pipeline, but the can has only been kicked down the road. Sales will come when names are on paper.
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The guidance is extremely broad. If earnings growth expectations were cut by 20% due to a poor quarter, the stock price will also move.
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Let’s save that snippet from the config, so it’s easier to come back to it later if needed.
Q2/2025 Conference Call. Varelius on guidance.
So we keep our guidance the same.
So the growth is expected to be between 10 and 20% year on year, on comparable exchange rates.
And then, of course, comes your next question: how can we do that when the first half’s been so slow. Well, basically, like you all know, our sales cycle, from meeting a new customer to closing a deal, takes about six months. So if we give guidance like this, we pretty much have to have the pipeline already in place for the second half of the year because if we didn’t, we wouldn’t have time to make the sales and close the deals on time. So this guidance that we see now is roughly the pipeline we already have in place.
So if we close the pipeline in the same rate series we’ve historically been doing, that should be the end game over there. And the same applies, the busiest quarter is, of course, going to be the fourth quarter. That’s what it always is.
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Anyone who has followed Varelius’s webcasts or calls for a longer time knows that the guy is quite overly positive in his speeches, and more often than not, Qt has had to lower its guidance in recent years rather than meet it. Of course, the level of ambition must be appreciated, but credibility is easily lost if one is not even close to what is desired.
A few excerpts:
-Qt’s sales director out of the company at the end of Q1 → A sales director doesn’t leave if the pipeline looks promising
-Claim: Big deals for guidance → It’s strangely common to have to speculate about big deals at the end of every quarter, even though operations span over 70 industries
-Year-end pipeline good and pace accelerating → What on earth happened in July-August that would truly support this belief globally?
For a while, Varelius hasn’t been asked how his sleep tastes now. Since it has already become a standardized topic, it’s fair to assume that this time it seemed his night’s sleep is no longer so restful. 
From the Finnish stock exchange’s perspective, it’s a truly dismal earnings report, as even the last global(?) software company with scalable growth turned into a shrinking one.
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