Qt Group - Epic journey to a tech giant

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8652

-50% YTD is admittedly tempting me to try my luck with this outfit. Inspired by this gambling urge of mine, I spent last night reading this thread from the start of 2025 onwards, and I have to give thanks for the good points made by more skilled users who follow QT more actively, especially regarding the ambiguities in the company’s communication.

Right now, QT smells to me like management is downplaying the impact of competitors and AI on the business, as well as the risk of losing market share, by pointing to trade war scenarios—even though the opening notes of this year’s slump were struck well before the start of Trump’s tariff show. The alleged delay of large orders that were once in the “pipeline” and their subsequent disappearance from announcements brings to mind the communication strategy of a certain Summa Defence, which has tried to pump air into a leaking stock with empty promises of big orders. It also doesn’t inspire confidence when analysts are forced to conclude that there isn’t enough transparency in the financial figures to perform a reliable analysis on details critical to the company’s growth.

As a novice investor, my ability to evaluate financial figures is still quite lacking, so I have to rely on these kinds of factors in my assessments, and based on these observations, I’m steering well clear of QT, at least for now. In fact, the whole firm looks like a bit of a trap for unskilled retail investors chasing quick profits, as the general consensus all year seems to have been—despite all the uncertainty—that a turnaround is coming and the share price will head up again. However, it wouldn’t be the first time a major player who thought their market position was secure was left watching the taillights as competitors zoomed past on both sides. Therefore, I’ll be watching from the sidelines with interest to see how 2026 goes for QT Group.

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8653

I disagree with your assessment. There is no evidence of market share loss to any competitor. It could be that customers are doing more with less, which is a hypothesis that needs to be tested. The question is whether the stagnation is structural or cyclical. The board and/or management have clearly set unattainable goals, and this should serve as a warning for them to set conservative targets that can be achieved or exceeded. Only then can they repair the loss of investor confidence.

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8654

We are probably all on the same page anyway that QT’s valuation multiples are still those of a growth company, despite the decline. Companies with similar growth to QT this year are rarely seen with multiples like EV/EBIT 25.5 (adj. 19.9) and P/E 31.4 (adj. 22.5) (Inderes 2025e). For instance, for Huhtamäki, the corresponding multiples are roughly half of that.

The market clearly still expects brisk growth from QT. Otherwise, the company wouldn’t be priced at a premium compared to mature, slow-growth companies. If the company doesn’t regain its growth momentum, I believe the share price still has room to even halve. If you believe the company will return to strong growth, then QT could certainly be a good investment. If, on the other hand, you believe the company’s performance will not improve sufficiently from this year, it might not be worth jumping in.

Will they get back on a growth path next year, in 3 years, or never? It’s hard to say, as evaluating that growth potential is so challenging when you’re not personally immersed in the technology. The company’s targets and communication don’t exactly inspire confidence either, as they’ve had to walk back previous estimates.

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My doubts regarding competitors are largely based on speculation, so it’s perfectly fine to disagree with me on that. I think @Antti_Luiro provides an interesting assessment of Qt’s competitive landscape in the attached InderesTV video, which was published a couple of months ago. Of course, Luiro’s views aren’t nearly as pessimistic as mine, but my suspicions stem partly from my own caution, which then reflects on a company like Qt in such a way that my portfolio remains closed to the company. @Vilu already wrote well about what the core problem for Qt is from an investor’s perspective right now.

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8656

Neither a profit warning nor a positive profit warning has been issued yet! I’m sure the orders for the rest of the year are already well known to the company.

Current guidance:

"We estimate that full-year 2025 net sales will grow by 3-10 percent in constant currencies from the previous year and that

the operating profit margin (EBITA %) will be 20-30 percent in 2025. The profit guidance includes the

estimated impact of the IAR Systems Group acquisition on Qt Group’s net sales and operating profit for the remainder of the year."

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8657

Just as a reminder, last year the profit warning was issued on January 3rd. So, we can probably forget about a profit warning this time around.

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8658

On the other hand, last year the negative profit warning came on Friday, Jan 3, 2025, and the Q4 report was on Feb 13, 2025.

The year before last, the negative profit warning was given on Friday, Jan 5, 2024, and the Q4 report was on Feb 16, 2024.

This year, the quarterly report is 2 weeks later, i.e., not until Feb 26, 2026.

Previously, about 1 month and 10 days have passed between the negative profit warning and the report. If the same pattern continues, I wouldn’t be surprised if a profit warning announcement comes next Friday, Jan 16, 2026.

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8659

But isn’t this ultimately a question of how quickly the year-end sales data can be collected and analyzed?

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8660

Personally, I don’t believe in a negative profit warning, and certainly not a positive one either. Following the last profit warning, the guidance was adjusted enough that they should reach it. And a positive warning would surely require some major new partnership, and that would definitely be reported.

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8661

That’s what I believe too, and on the other hand, there’s hardly even a need for meticulous analysis; most things are already known by December.

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8662

I suspect that the later reporting date of February 26th is due to the IAR integration, as there is still work to be done on it. Q4 figures are determined very quickly, so it’s fairly safe to assume that there won’t be a profit warning. Nonetheless, it’s probably best to expect the lower end of the guidance to avoid disappointing expectations.

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I’ve been thinking about Qt’s business risks, and the only major threat I can come up with is nothing less than an existential question: will genAI reduce the need for software frameworks? The accompanying article considers whether the development of genAI will lead to the development of customized, optimized applications within companies using entirely custom code instead of utilizing generic frameworks. I don’t have enough industry expertise to evaluate this seriously. Can any software developer weigh in on this type of risk?

https://jbenx.medium.com/will-ai-kill-traditional-software-frameworks-a2915901fd78

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A profit warning must be issued without delay, i.e., as soon as possible.

We are now dealing with full-year actual figures rather than partial forecasts, so there is less room for interpretation or broader “maneuvering.” Of course, consolidating group figures might take a bit longer than usual due to the IAR acquisition, but the final days are fast approaching. A closing process of more than two weeks would be quite slow.

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Komatsu Selects Qt Group to Automate UI Testing for Its Construction Equipment

Komatsu’s construction machinery is used in more than 190 countries, and its digital displays support 27 languages. The need to streamline the testing process is further emphasized as Komatsu introduces more digital technologies to its equipment, most recently Komtrax and Smart Construction.

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Cantor Fitzgerald’s price target cut to 29 presented earlier this morning. I don’t think there is much new in it. He reiterates his concerns about AI and the ability of customers to “do more with less”. He also speaks about the IAR acquisition and how it will lower sales in 2026 as IAR transitions to SaaS. These are all known concerns.

“Qt Group remains a conviction Underweight for 2026, as it was for 2025. We have been the lone Cassandra since our initiation in 2024 and, importantly, we have been right. We continue to believe consensus remains too high and that downside risk persists as weakening end-market demand, AI-driven pressure on seatbased monetisation, and IAR-related execution risk converge into 2026. Even after a ~60% drawdown from the 2024 highs, the de-rating has been driven primarily by materially reduced earnings expectations, leaving the shares still trading around 20x Bloomberg consensus P/E for FY26. While not optically expensive for the software sector, we don’t see the stock as ‘cheap’ considering the decidedly negative earnings momentum, risks to outlook, and the AI threat becoming central and, in our view, making it hard to point to any valuation floor. We reiterate our Underweight rating and reduce our price target to €29 (from €31), the lowest price target on the Street. “

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8667

I wonder if Qt has the viability and growth potential in the current AI environment? To me, the future seems quite uncertain for Qt, and it looks like a sunset company. This is a shareholder’s reflection. What do others think?

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It had better have, if only because I’m in with a significant amount :joy:

But seriously, AI won’t replace everything. And for those who are already customers, the switching barrier is really high. It’s just like with ERP systems. Transitioning is a nightmare.

I’m sure some AI stuff will come out of this outfit too. And at least I hope that before spring we’ll be closer to a €50 share price.

I jumped on board just in time at around €48. I think it was before the earnings report. The idea was to do what I’ve done before: a short hold and take the easy money. Well, it crashed, and now I’ve been buying like crazy to average down the price :grin:

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Everyone here seems to have fallen into despair :joy: No one’s commented on the Komatsu deal… I’ve got no clue what it might bring? Quite a big outfit though…

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Is the “pup” (Qt) finally reaching buying prices, when even a value investor like Random Walker is tipping it as the winner stock for 2026?

At the end of 2025, Sijoitustieto asked well-known investors for their winner stock pick from the Helsinki Stock Exchange for the year 2026. Giving their views this time were Aki Pyysing, Almanakka, Henri Elo, Jarkko Aho, and Tomi Lahti.

Jarkko “Random Walker” Aho: Qt Group (@€31.64 Dec 21, 2025)

Sijoitustieto columnist, investment author ( Laatuguru, Arvoguru, Pikkuguru), investment coach

I have never yet managed to snag a win in the investment competition, even though I have been involved every time since the start of the contest in 2017. It is time to change tactics. I have made my previous selections from companies I have followed for a long time and know well. Many of the companies have also been in my actual portfolio, and I have seen long-term potential in them above all else. This time, my choice, Qt Group, deviates from the usual, as I only started getting to know the company more closely this year and have never owned it. I also don’t feel I am particularly good at analyzing this type of technology company, where the operating environment can change rapidly. Therefore, I can’t say much about its longer-term prospects. This time, my choice is clearly a riskier bet, better suited to the nature of a short-term competition. I have, of course, followed the company from the sidelines for a long time, but the very high valuation of the stock has kept my interest low.

However, the situation has changed dramatically over the last year. The stock price has fallen from nearly 100 euros to the current level of just over 30 euros. At its peak, the stock reached 180 euros in the fall of 2021, so the price development hasn’t been a non-stop victory lap in previous years either. In the market crash following the start of the war in Ukraine, the stock momentarily dropped below 40 euros but recovered quite quickly. At that time, I still considered the price too high and didn’t bother to get to know the company further. Only now is the margin of safety starting to look right. It is worth emphasizing, however, that the valuation of these types of growth companies is very difficult, and the range of justifiable value is exceptionally wide.

Although small technology companies are not among my favorite investment targets due to the uncertainty surrounding valuation, I consider Qt’s business to be of quite high quality. Its position in software development tools for embedded systems is strong, and the products seem very competitive. The business model scales well, so profitability will improve clearly once sales pick up at some point.

I am not so much worried about the weakness of the current market, which is due to customers cutting back on their R&D investments, as it is temporary in nature. In my opinion, the bigger question marks relate to tightening competition and technological development, and through that, the threat of substitute products. Since the greatest risks lie in the long-term development of the industry, I fortunately don’t believe they will have an impact yet during the competition period. Decisive for my competition success is specifically how the investment activity of Qt’s customers develops and how quickly market demand returns closer to the accustomed level.

Qt is unlikely to reach the peak earnings level of 2024 (EPS €2.26) in the immediate coming years, so it’s better to estimate the “new normal” based on analyst forecasts. The consensus EPS forecast for next year is €1.40, which gives a P/E ratio of about 23. The valuation is therefore no longer particularly high, considering that it is a highly profitable growth company.

Indeed, I find Qt’s short-to-medium-term risk/reward profile very interesting. The current valuation (P/E 23) does not price in any great expectations. It can be justified with a 19% return on equity (less than half the level of the good years) and 6% annual earnings growth, if the investor’s required rate of return is the market average of 9% per year:

Justified P/E = (1–growth/ROE)/(required return–growth) = (1–6%/19%)/(9%–6%) = 22.8

The difference to the pricing of a year ago is massive, not to mention the ATH prices of 2021. Even with the peak earnings of 2024, the P/E was over 40 a year ago. Now, both the valuation (P/E) and profitability expectations (ROE) have been cut in half, and exceptionally rapid growth is no longer required.

The situation is ideal from an investor’s perspective. In principle, it is enough for one of the three components (P/E, ROE, growth) to perform better than expected to achieve a better-than-average return. If the company’s market situation improves even slightly, expectations will likely rise across several factors simultaneously. In that case, a stock price increase of several tens of percent is, in my opinion, a completely realistic scenario.

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8673

My understanding of coding is very limited, which is worth noting when reading the thoughts below. I have followed and owned Qt almost since the company was spun off from Digia into an independent listed company.

Recent performance has been weak and naturally raises concerns about the sustainability of Qt’s competitive advantages. The company doesn’t seem to be worried about the situation, and competitors don’t seem to be viewed as a real threat. At the same time, when reading developer forums, one inevitably gets the impression that new platforms, especially Flutter, are taking giant strides in the market (particularly in the automotive sector, which is important to Qt). Based on my understanding, Qt-based software runs significantly lighter than, for example, Flutter (lower CPU usage, energy efficiency, cheaper components with less memory possible, etc.), which is a major advantage especially in embedded systems with lightweight hardware—of course, the Qt ecosystem is also very versatile and established. My understanding is that Qt’s strengths are specifically in high-performance / mission-critical applications and when deep hardware integration is required.

However, from a coder’s perspective, Flutter seems to be much faster to grasp, easier to use, faster, more intuitive, and above all free. @Antti_Luiro, how worried are you that Flutter, for example, might capture market share in the automotive industry or, for instance, in “rich display” consumer electronics (smart TVs / other home electronics, etc.), where the hardware doesn’t necessarily impose such strict requirements?

How do you view Qt’s aggressive license pricing—is there a risk that Qt is pricing itself out of the market? Personally, I fear that Qt’s aggressive pricing model could be one of the biggest risks / bottlenecks for the future. Have you discussed Qt’s competitiveness with Qt customers (or embedded coders) at seminars or industry events? Additionally, many issues related to usability / Flutter’s superior technical features (Hot Reload, rendering, etc.) seem to come up on forums, which Qt has certainly tried to address in its own product development. The Flutter community is also growing at a significant pace and is very active, while the Qt forum seems to have quieted down—how does Qt ensure its relevance among the new generation of developers / start-ups?

How worried are you, @Antti_Luiro, that Qt’s stagnation is not just due to market weakness / that Qt’s addressable market is narrowing?

Below are some further reflections gathered mainly from forums, on some of which my own technical expertise is not sufficient to comment.

How to simplify the onboarding?

  • Steep learning curve and lack of beginner-friendly templates
  • Modernize documentation layout?
  • Enable quick “start → see results” workflow?

Modern C++ Integration?

  • Qt does not fully adopt the modern C++ practices (like RAII)
  • Offer safer, modern APIs
  • Replacing legacy patterns to attract new C++ developers?

Next-Gen Renderer – does RHI in Qt 6 solve this issue?

  • Compete with Flutter/Unity/Unreal by having faster cross-platform GPU rendering
  • Support unified shader pipelines, 2D + 3D blending, richer animations
  • Go beyond Qt Quick 3D?

Accessible Pricing

  • Has the license pricing been too aggressive (especially with Flutter being free)?
  • Should there be affordable tiers for small teams and freelancers / some kind of “pay-as-you-grow” model to make the framework accessible for start-ups?

Stronger Language Bindings

  • Adoption of a unified cross-language strategy?
  • Announcement of integration with Rust, Python, .NET, Swift, and Kotlin/Java in May 2025 – what is the status?

How to react to increasing competition especially from Flutter?

  • Flutter seems to be anything but dead, significant milestones taken in 2025
  • Flutter has become a serious player in cross-platform app development with several key advantages e.g.
    • Hot Reload - Flutter vs Qt with Felgo?
    • AOT and JIT compilation – compared to Qt Quick Compiler?
    • Entirely free, easier adoption and more intuitive due to Dart, rapid development
    • Rapidly expanding community
    • Superior documentation (documentation especially in QML apparently far behind?)
    • Very strong rendering engine – Qt solution vs Impeller?
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