@timontti once asked the CEO about this topic here:
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The Importance of Distribution Licenses is Expected to Grow in the Future (Inderes 14.2.2025)
Market growth has slowed down after the strong years of 2021-22, behind which we see, in addition to the cooling economic cycle, the gradual maturation of market growth. There is still plenty of room for growth. We estimate that over the next five years, the drivers of growth will shift from the core of the Qt platform (developer licenses) towards these distribution licenses that follow with a delay, and increasingly towards product extensions.
The target price of 100 euros is also pleasant to read, that is, if one didn’t manage to buy in February, but only now 
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The more of that device is manufactured. Licenses are used when the device is manufactured in the factory. And the licenses for a device manufactured today are not bought today. They are bought in larger batches as the factory plans production volumes. LG might look today and say, “Hey, we’ll make this many gadgets in Q1 2026, we have half of this amount in distribution licenses in stock, let’s talk to Qt and buy as many more as we plan to use in Q1.”
Factories manufacture components at a fairly steady pace. The Christmas sales peak is handled by making goods for stock well in advance. In a normal situation, a factory makes the same amount of goods every month, and seasonal fluctuations are smoothed out by stocking goods in quieter months and depleting stocks in peak months. On top of this, there are normal model updates, maintenance shutdowns, etc. All of this is completely irrelevant from Qt’s perspective. They probably sell distribution licenses to such an operator a few times a year, and the quantity is based on the manufacturer’s planned production volume, and more will be sought when supplies start running low. This does not correlate with the sales side in any way, but only with manufacturing volumes, and I don’t believe in seasonal fluctuations in modern production where things are planned well in advance, parts are ordered “just in time,” and the whole thing is a well-oiled machine designed to consistently push out goods, maximizing factory utilization.
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It feels like a familiar story from 5-6 years ago, when big things were predicted about the same issue, and now the price is indeed far below those earlier estimates.
It’s probably still impossible to name another company in Finland whose revenue would have grown more on average over the last 4-5 years. The stock price just got a bit too far ahead of itself at the beginning, like current AI companies.
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When planning the Vartti, I couldn’t help but think of Qt when comparing these two curves. Qt is heavily affected by the sluggishness of consumption. Even though the stock markets are rallying, many companies directly or indirectly related to consumption are struggling. Or exploding.
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but in relation to the graph above, here is the stock price after typically weaker Q3 results (Nov 1) and after typically strong Q4 results (Apr 1) for the last 5 years:
From November to April of the following year:
| Nov 1, 2021 → Apr 1, 2022 | 138.62 € → 114.60 € | −17.33 % |
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| Nov 1, 2022 → Apr 1, 2023 | 48.05 € → 70.77 € | +47.26 % |
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| Nov 1, 2023 → Apr 1, 2024 | 61.25 € → 72.27 € | +17.99 % |
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| Nov 1, 2024 → Apr 1, 2025 | 68.12 € → 66.80 € | −1.94 % |
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From April to November:
| Apr 1, 2022 → Nov 1, 2022 | 114.60 €→ 48.05 € | −58.11 % |
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| Apr 1, 2023 → Nov 1, 2023 | 70.77 € → 61.25 € | −13.45 % |
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| Apr 1, 2024 → Nov 1, 2024 | 72.27 € → 68.12 € | −5.74 % |
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| Apr 1, 2025 → Nov 1, 2025 | 66.80 € → 32.62 € | −51.17 % |
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Based on these series, if one bought the stock annually on April 1 and sold it in November of the same year, the investor sold at a loss every year, and the average loss has been -32%. If, on the other hand, one bought on November 1 and sold in April of the following year, returns have varied between -17% and +42%. Coincidentally, the largest losses, over 50%, have occurred in a 3-year cycle: Apr 1, 2022 → Nov 1, 2022 and Apr 1, 2025 → Nov 1, 2025. If the largest gains were also to occur in a 3-year cycle, then Nov 1, 2025 → Apr 1, 2026 would be due for the largest percentage returns of the three-year period.
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They had taken a position of 20,000 shares. It wasn’t hard to guess.
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It’s interesting to see short sellers reducing their short positions.
Capeview Capital LLP reduced its net short position in QT Group Plc by 9.09% to 280,172 shares, or 1.10% of the company’s shares, by December 4, 2025.
JPMorgan Asset Management UK reduced its net short position in QT Group Plc by 14.41% to 483,934 shares, or 1.90% of the company’s shares, by December 2, 2025.
If management had been cautious enough in their guidance and hadn’t disappointed, we would have bottomed out. Hopefully, larger deals will be signed in 2026. It’s worth noting that the negative currency impact will still be very significant in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
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