Defense Industry – Security of the Free World or Merchants of Death

Lockheed Martin and Diehl Defence plan to collaborate on installing IRIS-T air defense missiles on German ships.

The missiles will be integrated into Lockheed Martin’s Aegis and MK41 systems. The agreement is expected to be signed during the Berlin Security Conference.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/lockheed-martin-and-diehl-defence-to-collaborate-on-missile-systems-93CH-4365805

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European defense stocks have risen sharply this year, but rumors of a possible peace agreement in Ukraine have, however, increased uncertainty.

According to experts, the sector will continue to do well in the long term; due to the war, for example, inventories need to be replenished, NATO countries are increasing their budgets, and for the same reason, modernization needs continue. Even if peace brings short-term volatility, structural reasons will sustain demand for the defense industry.

"Key Points

  • European defense stocks have surged this year, buoyed by regional governments committing to ramp up security budgets.
  • However, questions around how much further the sector can rise have come to the fore in recent days, amid reports the U.S. and Russia have secretly been working on a peace deal for Ukraine.
  • Market watchers spoke to CNBC about the impact they think a breakthrough on ending the war may have on defense stocks."

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/20/what-a-ukraine-peace-plan-could-mean-for-europes-defense-boom.html

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According to Morgan Stanley, most long-term investment funds still do not own the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall. However, a small number of funds have slightly increased their holdings during the third quarter.

According to the article, European defense companies are otherwise doing better because they are being invested in “more broadly.” The company Leonardo has at least been particularly popular with some funds, while Siemens Energy is still being avoided by a large number of funds despite its growing importance.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/rheinmetall-siemens-energy-remain-underowned-by-lo-funds-morgan-stanley-93CH-4372092

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I only now got around to digging deeper into Theon’s Q3 report from my own portfolio, beyond the front-page numbers. From the presentation (https://s204.q4cdn.com/763095439/files/doc_financials/2025/q3/Theon-Group-Trading-Update-Q3-2025_vF.pdf) I found an interesting mention that I don’t recall being brought up on the forum, namely an investment in the form of a convertible loan in domestic Varjo:

The Group, through Theon International Plc, invested €5 million in Varjo Technologies Oy, a Finnish VR/MR specialist, through a convertible loan with an option for an additional €5 million.

The scale is relatively minor from Varjo’s and especially Theon’s perspective, but as a Finnish matter, it is certainly worth mentioning.

Theon also seems to be developing into a kind of serial consolidator of its ecosystem, however, many acquisitions are limited to minority stakes (or perhaps more of a serial integrator?). In Q3 alone, in addition to Varjo’s convertible loan, they have acquired German Kappa Optronics (€75M) and stakes in Kopin Corporation (shares, convertible bond, and 49% ownership in a Scottish subsidiary, apparently aiming for a joint venture) and Andres Industries. On top of that, there are strategic partnerships with Theon’s suppliers, which are probably more or less standard practice in the industry.

As an investor, it feels like assessing the company’s development is constantly getting harder, mainly due to these convertible loan arrangements, joint ventures, and minority stakes. Or are they just noise regarding the bottom line? How do others follow and interpret such a complex entity?

Despite increasing investments and corporate arrangements, there are still sufficient (and increasing) euros in cash even after dividends (even though dividends are practically financed by debt), so I remain a confident owner regarding the business and management. Unfortunately, the valuation side is concerning now that the defense sector threatens to lose its appeal in the big picture, so at this moment, there is a special motivation to predict Theon will be a more valuable company in the coming years than it is now.

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https://theon.com/theon-signs-new-contract-for-up-to-25000-sets-of-thermal-clip-onsights-in-germany-with-value-of-more-than-e100-million/

This order looks good too. I haven’t worried too much about the convertible bonds; the owner family has such large stakes and a track record that I trust their work.

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Perun-kanavalla video aseteollisuuden kalleusongelmasta. Kesto 1h.

"Many countries have gotten pretty good at producing cutting edge military equipment - but cheap equipment is often a different matter.

With the war in Ukraine demonstrating that quantity and affordability can sometimes matter as much as raw capability, today (by patron vote), I want to unpack some of the reasons countries can sometimes struggle to build equipment for less than eye-watering prices - and what options might be available to try and narrow the cost gap with more economical competitors."

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Here is a short article from Yle about how the revenue of defense industry companies has grown.

The revenue of the world’s hundred largest defense industry companies grew by almost six percent last year to 679 billion dollars, or about 587 billion euros. This is according to a recent study by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri).

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Is anyone (else) participating in this? I was at least planning to participate through OP. :thinking:

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The intention would be to participate through Nordea, but at least for now, no subscription rights are visible anywhere. It’s great that this is implemented as a rights issue instead of a directed issue; even smaller shareholders get the opportunity to participate in financing the growth instead of just dilution given from above :+1:

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Yes, this is interesting. Seems like a pretty good deal and healthy for liquidity too. Here too, we are waiting for instructions from Nordea. Maybe I should send a message to customer service.

Edit: I sent a message to Nordea.

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Below is an article about how Lockheed Martin opened a hypersonic weapons integration laboratory in Huntsville to advance next-generation weapons.

The new 17,000-square-foot facility is part of an approximately $529 million program, and additionally, the start-up Castelion is also progressing with the integration of its Blackbeard weapon.

No paywall.

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Good news for Theon continues…

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Uusikaupunki car factory to start manufacturing armored vehicles late next year | Southwest Finland | Yle

More domestic production.

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Lockheed Martin received an additional $1.14 billion contract for the procurement of F-35 fighter jet materials for the United States and partner nations.

The funding covers parts for future production batches, and work will primarily be done in Texas.

The contract runs until 2030, with funding coming from both the United States and some international customers.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/lockheed-martin-awarded-114-billion-contract-for-f35-fighter-jets-93CH-4394477

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Nordean’s system is completely incomprehensible. They called on Independence Day, but I didn’t answer because I thought it was a scam. However, a message appeared in online banking saying they tried to reach me regarding Theon’s offering. They called again today, I answered and subscribed to the shares. I asked what on earth they were calling on weekends for… apparently, message processing is so congested that they’re working overtime :sweat_smile:

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https://theon.com/harder-digital-secures-new-e25-million-orders-from-major-defence-companies/

New order for Harder Digital, of which, to my knowledge, Theon acquired a 60% stake in fall 2024. A new production line has been built, and with the new deals, profitability is expected to improve.

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Below is a story about how German defense companies’ shares rose as parliament is expected to approve 52 billion euro arms procurements next week, which include, among other things, basic equipment, Puma infantry fighting vehicles, and Arrow 3 missiles.

The biggest benefits are estimated to go specifically to Rheinmetall. The package supports Germany’s goal of strengthening its army after Russia’s attack.

It would be the largest amount of big-ticket orders and the highest value of government contracts ever signed off on by the budget committee in Germany’s lower house in a single closed-door session, Bloomberg added.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/rheinmetall-renk-shares-risk-amid-report-germany-to-approve-large-defense-orders-4397858

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Below is an article about how Britain and Germany are emerging as Europe’s most important defense technology hubs as the countries rearm due to Russia’s aggression and the tightened security situation.

Growing defense budgets and pressures from NATO have drawn billions in private money into AI-powered drone and missile defense startups, among others. They are attracted by a strong industrial base, skilled professionals, easing public procurement, good routes to export markets, frontline experience from Ukraine, and a more positive political climate.

"Key Points

  • The U.K. and Germany have emerged as crucial defense tech ecosystems as Europe rearms.
  • Technical talent, increasingly pro-startup policy, and access to new markets and frontline training have helped make these two countries regional leaders.
  • Private funding for startups across the region has ramped up as investors look to tap into increasing military budgets."

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/11/ai-defense-boom-in-uk-and-germany-as-new-wave-of-companies-emerge.html

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https://theon.com/theon-signs-the-largest-contract-ever-for-100000-nvgs-with-occar-valued-at-c-e1-billion/

It just hit big! Congratulations to the owners!

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I’m not actually posting the link below just because of the stock price reaction, but indeed, European defense stocks fell today when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced he was ready to abandon the goal of NATO membership in exchange for other security guarantees. The markets interpreted this as a sign of possible progress in peace negotiations, which then caused such a reaction. Germany’s largest arms manufacturer Rheinmetall fell by about 2 percent, and Hensoldt & Renk also dropped into negative territory. Although sector stocks have risen sharply this year due to the war in Ukraine, even a small hope of the conflict calming down sways investors’ expectations - in the short term.

However, from an investor’s perspective, it is interesting, as stated earlier, that a potential peace would not necessarily collapse demand in the defense sector. European countries are increasing their defense spending in the long term, and furthermore, the armament of NATO countries continues, and there is a general focus on self-sufficiency. As the article reveals, in the short term, stock prices fluctuate with the news flow, but structural demand continues to support the industry.

Zelenskyy said in a WhatsApp discussion with reporters on Sunday that such security guarantees would “provide an opportunity to prevent another outbreak of Russian aggression.”

Russia remains steadfast in its opposition to any Ukrainian membership of NATO.

Protracted discussions on how to end the near four-year-long conflict — which entered a second day in Berlin on Monday — have thrust the continent’s defense industry back into the spotlight.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/15/european-defense-stocks-slide-as-zelenskyy-ditches-ukraine-nato-bid.html

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