Unless they can get things rocking, they will still buy from TSMC but possibly at a higher price.
I already sold my Intel shares on the rise, as the slight climax already feels overvalued. Unless there is proof that Intel’s operations start working.
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TSMC also invests in the USA and receives large subsidies from taxpayers for it:
Yeah, though Intel has received even more Chips Act funding, and the fabs should probably be operational this year or next. TSMC’s more advanced process factory probably not until 2028. I can’t think of any other reason for this two-day rise in Intel’s stock. Both certainly have challenges getting things to work (staying on schedule and within budget).
AMD is already manufacturing chips at TSMC’s Arizona factory. Although TSMC’s Arizona factory does not yet produce the very latest chip models, many chips are still on the TSMC N4 process.
AI accelerators are not yet manufactured in Arizona, but if subsidies are available for it, I see no reason why it wouldn’t move there. Silicon wafers for MI300X accelerators could be made at the Arizona factory.
For NVIDIA, the limiting factor seems to be capacity. Some parts of these might also be made in the USA if it comes to that, but the latest models are Taiwan-only until at least 2028.
Furthermore, if the chips need to be entirely Made in USA, it will take a few more years before a packaging plant can be set up in the US. So far, silicon wafers made in Arizona fly to Taiwan for packaging because there isn’t yet a factory in the US that does this (packaging = cutting the chip dies from the wafer and attaching them to the processor’s “base plate” which then has contacts to connect the processor to the motherboard - and in this regard, only Taiwan currently has factories that can perform advanced packaging for TSMC chips where many different chip dies are assembled into one processor).
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Here’s a light quick look at ASML. 
For those who have followed the company more closely, there shouldn’t be anything new or surprising.
As a general point, it could be highlighted that the company is naturally seen to benefit from technology trends, but it has high R&D costs and also geopolitical risks.
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Intel’s shares rose nicely today, as Broadcom and TSMC are reportedly considering separate acquisitions that could lead to the company’s split.
Broadcom might be interested in Intel’s chip design and marketing unit, while TSMC is considering an equity stake or even control of Intel’s factories. However, according to reports, the negotiations are still unofficial, and no official offers have been made.
You can find more on this in this article.
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Could this really pass any competition authority? I don’t understand much about these things, but if TSMC got Intel’s factories, they would have a de facto monopoly in, for example, computer processors.
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I don’t think management is realistic, but co-ownership or “Intel hires TSMC to run factories because it doesn’t know how itself and pays something for this but retains ownership of the factories” might perhaps theoretically be possible. It would be a bit of a strange arrangement, though.
It’s clear that Intel would want TSMC’s know-how for its use, and it’s clear that TSMC won’t share this expertise with its competitor, at least not for free.
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BESI Q4 2024
Key Highlights Q4-24
- Revenue of € 153.4 million down 2.0% vs. Q3-24 and 3.9% vs. Q4-23 primarily due to lower demand for automotive applications partially offset by increased hybrid bonding shipments
- Orders of € 121.9 million down 19.7% vs. Q3-24 and 26.7% vs. Q4-23 due primarily to decreased bookings for high performance computing and mainstream assembly applications
- Gross margin of 64.0% decreased by 0.7 points vs. Q3-24 and 1.1 points vs. Q4-23 primarily due to adverse net forex influences
- Net income of € 59.3 million increased 26.7% vs. Q3-24 and 8.0% vs. Q4-23 due to € 18.2 million of net tax benefits realized. As a result, net margin rose to 38.6% vs. 29.9% in Q3-24 and 34.4% in Q4-23
- Cash and deposits of € 672.3 million at year-end increased 62.6% versus year-end 2023. Net cash of € 143.8 million increased € 33.1 million (29.9%) vs. Q3-24 and € 30.8 million (27.3%) vs. Q4-23
Key Highlights FY 2024
- Revenue of € 607.5 million increased 4.9% vs. 2023 principally due to higher demand by computing end-user markets, particularly for hybrid bonding and photonics applications, partially offset by weakness in mobile, automotive and Chinese end-user markets
- Orders of € 586.7 million rose 7.0% due to strength in 2.5D and 3D AI-related applications
- Gross margin of 65.2% rose by 0.3 points due to more favorable advanced packaging product mix
- Net income of € 182.0 million grew 2.8% as higher revenue, gross margin and net tax benefits were partially offset by higher R&D spending and share-based compensation expense. Besi’s net margin decreased slightly to 30.0% vs. 30.6% in 2023
- Proposed dividend of € 2.18 per share. Represents pay-out ratio of 95%
Q1-25 Outlook
- Revenue expected to decrease 0-10% vs. the € 153.4 million reported in Q4-24
- Gross margin expected to range between 63-65% vs. the 64.0% realized in Q4-24
- Operating expenses expected to grow 10-20% vs. the € 47.6 million reported in Q4-24
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An interesting development on the Plasma - Litho axis. Lam Research has completed a dry photoresist. Usually, photoresist is chemical-based and can be applied to the surface of a silicon wafer in various ways. Typically, the resist coater (track) and the exposure tool used, e.g., an ASML stepper, are connected, but in this case, since it’s a vacuum device (LAM), integration can be somewhat challenging, though not impossible. The properties of the dry resist look really good at a quick glance, and I will be very interested to follow how many customers adopt the new dry resist.
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Above are Investing visuals’ views of ASML from November and January, and here is the latest:
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What do you think AMD’s reaction will be to NVIDIA’s results next Wednesday? The stock has been under quite a bit of pressure in the last year (-40%). Over the past three years, it has been flat, although ATH (All-Time High) figures have also been seen in between. However, the company has been constantly moving forward well, but of course, when NVIDIA is the benchmark, nothing seems to be enough.
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Has this been missed in the thread or just not mentioned? Unfortunately, AMD’s stock performance has recently been heavily in the red. This certainly doesn’t help.
Recently, problems with AMD’s Ryzen 7 9800X3D processors have been reported with increasing frequency. The issue is already of such a large scale that there is a dedicated “megathread” on Reddit for the problem.
Original article →
https://wccftech.com/amd-ryzen-7-9800x3d-now-experiencing-widespread-cpu-failure-incidents/
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This is not a big problem yet. There have been scattered reports of broken circuits, and currently, it seems to be mainly with AsRock motherboards, and AsRock just released a BIOS update that should fix the issue.
And the fault is completely clear in the sense that either the CPU works or it doesn’t. If it breaks, it’s covered by warranty, and you get a new one. Unlike Intel’s problem where practically every 13th and 14th generation high-end chip “rots” over time. In this case, the fault seems to be that due to some BIOS bug, the voltage received by the processor can suddenly get a temporary spike that is so high it can damage the chip.
The number of complaints versus how many of these chips have been sold is, in my estimation, such that it’s likely a failure rate of about half a percent or so.
I have personally assembled and, for work, used half a dozen 9800X3D configurations, and no fault has occurred, although none of these use AsRock motherboards.
I don’t see this having anything to do with the stock price; it’s mainly crawling because the early-year forecasts for the Datacenter segment got ahead of themselves, and then when they weren’t met, the AI hype train crowd dumped their shares. In my opinion, the x86-64 CPU market share has been gained in such a way that there’s no reason for pessimism in the 6-12 month timeframe, but I guess this is somewhat secondary when the AI accelerator side isn’t rocketing NVIDIA-style…
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Quite an interesting video about AMD. AMD is well-positioned as the importance of inference grows in AI usage. I believe AMD can surprise the market in this area.
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The article below states that Intel announced it is delaying the opening of the chip factory being built in Ohio to the next decade.
The company plans to start production at its first factory in 2030 or later, while the completion and commissioning of its second factory have been similarly delayed. According to the article below, this decision indicates how the company is trying to make strategic adjustments in a changing technological environment and in response to the growing impact of the AI sector. The decision aims to optimize production processes and effectively meet market demand.
EDIT:
I’m also adding a tweet here about AMD’s strong figures.
https://x.com/ZeevyInvesting/status/1895479066641277417
EDIT:
I’m adding this here as well.
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AMD’s valuation is not crazy considering the forecasts. With new product launches, one dares to guess that there might even be upward pressure. It feels like AMD is somewhat of an underdog as a stock when compared simultaneously to Intel (performing poorly) and Nvidia (can’t compete with Nvidia). Although in reality, the company is steadily moving forward, even if last year wasn’t a success.
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Here’s a visualization of how ASML manages its money.
https://x.com/ZeevyInvesting/status/1897315668271484957
EDIT:
Adding this here as well.
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