A few highlights from this week’s Vartti!
https://www.inderes.fi/videos/positiivinen-talousyllatys-muhimassa-or-vernerin-vartti
I updated and slightly condensed the trade war timeline. The most significant turn, of course, is the preliminary 90-day “truce” between China and the United States. It has other important implications beyond the de-escalation of the trade war. The US’s position in the economy is significant, but not so powerful that Trump could hold the American consumer hostage (see comparison in Vartti) and dictate to others as he pleases. China’s hardline approach worked, and Trump had to back down. This means that Trump’s tough talk lacks economic and political muscle, at least for now.
I also updated the developments of the trade war. It seems that China is taking the shortcut towards de-escalation. Thus, the path of the 1930s seems unlikely for now, and the cautious stance on trade war developments raised in Vartti proved to be too cautious for now. Note, for now. 
Apologies for the long message, but the main topic in Vartti was (again) the “hyping” of European stocks and economy. I just explained this chart in more detail in the Nordea thread, so it should suffice to repeat here that the steepening of the yield curve is bullish for Europe’s large banking sector (incl. Nordea) and that it speaks for an acceleration of the economy.
The Eurozone’s loan stock is already slowly recovering on an annual basis, but with the yield curve steepening positively, banks have an incentive to lend more and more. If the trade war doesn’t mess things up, the Eurozone’s economic growth could indeed pick up from here. Especially considering the stimulus packages as well.
Here is a summary (more in the video) of what makes Euro stocks interesting.
This should not be understood as a crusade against the SP500; that would not end well. However, with Finnish investors fleeing to the other side of the Atlantic, even Varma, I want to emphasize how value and top companies can be found on the old continent, often with more affordable price tags. An SP500-centric worldview in the financial market is not the whole truth.