@Geweth ;n and Verneri’s China discussion is hypnotic reading - you should definitely set up that China forum!
I’ll get to it. Just a moment 
The thread was opened with a short introduction Kiinan talouden tulevaisuus - Talous & markkinat - Inderes forum
Europe has such strong institutions that, with a few exceptions (Poland, Hungary), the continent has endured a decade of sluggish growth and economic stagnation without major crises or disintegration (you can worry about the disintegration of the eurozone, but not so much the EU or individual countries).
In Hungary, the openly anti-Semitic Jobbik gained 19 percent support in the last elections.
The support for the Sweden Democrats is also over 20 percent, although my understanding is that they are considerably more moderate than their Eastern European counterparts, for example.
In Germany, perhaps the most liberal country in Europe, the populist AfD also gained 20 percent support in several federal states.
You are absolutely right that, especially in Western Europe, democracy is deeply rooted, and I don’t believe in any radical change of direction. The problematic thing is that these Eastern European countries are shaking the EU at its seams. Is it enough to cut off Hungary’s funding? What if the EU disintegrates?
I don’t want to be overly pessimistic, but I believe that the international system is undergoing the biggest upheaval since the Second World War.
But how productive are those investments? China’s productivity growth has significantly weakened in recent years. China’s economic growth model is investment-driven, and a legitimate concern arises about whether the country is pouring money into poorly productive projects both domestically and increasingly abroad.
Would you like to elaborate on what you cover in your master’s thesis about China?
There’s certainly enough material about China for any topic.
So, I’m researching China’s investments in the European Union from a strategic perspective, meaning power, not ROI, comes first. However, according to COSCO, container traffic in the Port of Piraeus, which I mentioned earlier, would have quadrupled after the change of ownership in the aftermath of the financial crisis. I don’t know how accurate that is.
The other extreme is these projects planned for Finland. According to an official assessment, the Arctic Railway or the Tallinn tunnel are not commercially viable. However, funding for these has been found from financial institutions linked to the Chinese state. So what was the motive then?
Of course, I can’t say how long such projects can be financed without major problems.
A couple of researchers have also investigated Huawei’s ownership structures and stated that Ren Zhengfei, who has been featured in the media, owns about one percent of the company. The remaining 99 percent is owned by a trade union committee, about which practically nothing is known. Traditionally, such institutions have been under the control of the Communist Party.
Absolutely fantastic discussion and analysis! This is why I read this forum.
Thanks @Geweth & @Verneri_Pulkkinen et al. for opening up and sharing your opinions. It’s a truly interesting topic. I’m also starting my master’s thesis, but in the business school, and I’d be very interested in focusing my research on the actions of Chinese companies in Western countries and how they have infiltrated/will infiltrate in the future. Is this a current trend or will all Western business “become Chinese”?
Netflix gets a coronavirus boost in subscriber numbers.
As for the numbers, it’s business as usual
For the just-ended quarter, Netflix’s earnings per share fell short of analyst expectations. The company posted diluted earnings per share of $1.57, below the $1.65 consensus, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.
Total revenue rose to $5.77 billion from $4.52 billion. Analysts on average had expected $5.76 billion.
Appreciation of the U.S. dollar, due partially to the coronavirus crisis, dragged on international revenue, the company said.
04/21/2020 07:31pm EDT
Thanks for sharing, I was just about to post about Netflix myself
There was one “anomaly” in the numbers: positive free cash flow!
Production costs are low since they can’t film, while cash flow from subscribers is juicy. However, 2020 production is already in the bag, so there won’t be an immediate hit to the repertoire due to corona.
Hubei province’s GDP decreased by 39% in Q1 2020.
This gives some indication of the impact when an entire region/country is under quarantine.
Of course, regional differences within countries are also likely to be significant in Europe, but the -20% to -30% forecasts for Q2 do not seem unrealistic at all in light of Hubei.
Helsinki Stock Exchange’s “best” TINA friends KONE and Elisa both near ATH as the world didn’t end for them because of corona, as has become clear during earnings season.
The earnings season also continued on Wednesday. So far, 84 companies from the S&P 500 list have announced their earnings, which for 67 percent of companies have been better than analysts’ forecasts.
Hopefully, we can maintain this pace, as the worst is yet to come regarding economic figures…
edit:
https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1253190657566371840?s=20
we’ll see if it’s true
I reckon Q2 results will be uglier, and by then, we’ll start seeing who’s swimming naked – some companies will hit rock bottom, while for others, this whole mess is just a minor bump in the road.
Moreover, it’s a question mark how long central banks’ INFINITE POWER strategy will continue to prop up stock prices.
It probably won’t even matter in the short term, whether he speaks or not. If the truth about Q3 only starts to emerge when Q3 is upon us, the market will likely be looking 6-12 months ahead again. We might see some corrections to the uptrends as needed, but probably nothing major.
But growth is easy in 2021 if 2020 is almost stagnant. So much so that the more we take a beating now, the more certainly growth will be strong next year.
This is almost perverse thinking. 
But awesome, I completely agree with you. 
If the market is going to retest previous bottoms, I think it has to happen this summer. Time is on the side of the bulls.
This is assuming, of course, that the corona crisis doesn’t transform into a serious financial crisis. And on the other hand, the vaccine will be internationally available in about 6-9 months.
Edit: I’ll add that I don’t fully believe in a V-shaped market recovery myself. However, I currently consider it possible that the bottoms have already been made. Central bank actions have changed the game so much.
I am still basically expecting a dip, but the Q1 earnings season has been strong enough so far that it’s quite realistic that even if Q2 results are ugly, if there’s no major setback on the virus front, the market could “paper over” the Q2 dip and look far ahead into next year, and thus the share price reactions to the inevitable Q2 downturns could be very moderate.
However, differences between companies can be very significant. Companies that demonstrate that their businesses won’t collapse due to Corona will rally, and those whose businesses are heavily impacted will take a hit. That’s the golden age for stock pickers…
I also believe there will be downward pressure before the Q2 earnings release, but after the release, there could even be an upward correction if the worst is believed to be behind us. We’ll only know for sure what it looks like then.
In the longer term, the so-called “sing-along assumption” (rallatteluolettama) could bite us in the behind. This applies too broadly to companies believed to be good and those thought to benefit from the coronavirus. Companies currently at all-time high (ATH) prices wouldn’t seem to have much room for growth, even if everything passes relatively quickly. If everyone thinks Netflix is the best horse, then it’s almost certainly fully bought.
Not even TINA (There Is No Alternative) and stretching valuation multiples will significantly lift these for a while, when there are stocks next to them that seem to have better earnings yields.
no effect
No no, the DAX has dipped at least 5 points after that… no, almost ten now
We’ll see at the open, these pre-market fluctuations in futures are sometimes a bit ambiguous and feel more like positioning for the open. Well, at least right now it looks like a flat or slightly positive open. Of course, it might dip right at the open, but I don’t believe it will be a permanent dip, just a momentary one.
I previously asked for your projective views on other actors’ pandemic assumptions (and considering the framework, many probably perceived it in relation to stock prices). I couldn’t transfer the image here.
Thank you for your responses. Adapting the ski jumping legend, it’s a sixty-fifty result. I tried to elaborate on the result as a matrix, with optimistic vs. pessimistic pandemic views on one axis. On the other axis, the strong vs. weak link between current stock levels and real economic prospects. I’m thinking of the coming months here.
If the link is strong and the assumption is optimistic, it’s difficult to see upside potential, considering current stock levels compared to, say, a year ago. My thought is that all realistic positive news is already priced in.
If a pessimistic view were priced in and the link strong, then upward potential could only be brought about by a real game changer: a “miracle drug,” a proven effective vaccine in record time, or the pandemic dying out significantly faster than anticipated, or even the Swedish model proving to be a success.
The second row becomes difficult for a layman. In my opinion, there are clear indications of a weak link. What factors cause it and how long will they affect it? A weak link cannot continue for more than a limited time? The aforementioned correlation to an optimistic or pessimistic pandemic assumption might be feasible, but it becomes “fuzzy” for me. If the pandemic “dries up,” will the most massive support measures also dry up, and if they continue, in what form? What kind of distortions could arise?
For someone planning to gradually enter the market, primarily operating with index funds, all points lead to the conclusion that a wait-and-see approach is justified for now.
I sometimes watch episodes of Traders’ Club (Traders Club) and here’s Lepikko’s central bank-leaning argumentation for why we could see new highs in the stock markets (SP500 was probably in mind…) this year, as high-interest money flows into stocks and the printers sing.
It’s actually amusing how many of the same points are in these and the Almost in a Minute (Melkein minuutissa) episodes, with the difference that I don’t talk about TA myself, and the Almost in a Minute videos don’t really take a market view, but rather bring out different angles for investors to chew on themselves.
Today’s picks:
M2 money expansion continues in the US:
European services are no more:
