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I would challenge all contributors of part two to take their time refining their posts and to discuss as professionally as they would with colleagues and clients at work. That is, following the culture in ‘Market Direction’ (Pörssien suunta) and many other threads.
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It’s easy to agree with this.
Regarding this morning’s poll, what comes to mind for the SDP is that it’s not the individual observations that matter, but the trend. At this stage, I believe that Orpo’s government is starting to be weighed down by empty promises, particularly concerning debt, and disappointment with the government is boosting the opposition’s popularity without the SDP, for instance, needing to do much of anything. Lindtman hasn’t been particularly prominent lately, so the rise in the SDP’s support can’t be credited to him yet.
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In my opinion, Yle’s poll has shown some really strange results over the last couple of times. Last time, the Left Alliance’s support rose sharply, so now that it is returning to its baseline level, it looks as though the party’s support is in a steep decline. Movement Now’s support also roughly doubled in the latest poll, for which it is hard to find any justification.
When I compare even just the last couple of polls, I don’t notice any other trend besides the melting away of support for the Finns Party, the Centre Party, and the Christian Democrats.
Government approval ratings seem to drop pretty much regardless of which parties are in power, what they have promised, or what happens. I don’t know if the decline in support has been faster or more drastic than usual—maybe. I recall seeing an interesting anomaly once—though I haven’t verified its truth—that an incumbent government in Norway has never won an election. This is quite telling in itself, considering Norway is likely one of the best-managed countries in the world, whether that’s thanks to oil or not. But generally speaking, a significant portion of voters is never satisfied with the government’s performance.
As a disclaimer, I’m not satisfied with the government’s performance either. Then again, I didn’t even vote for the parties in power. But my point is simply that if you want to draw conclusions from a drop in support, the reference point should be the typical decline in government support; the fact that support is dropping doesn’t tell us anything on its own, because it always happens.
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Well, this has certainly dropped quickly, except when compared to Sipilä.
What these two governments have in common is that they have pursued strictly uncompromising right-wing policies. That doesn’t work in Finland at all, at least if you want a second consecutive term in office. Finns long for balanced compromise governments because the people are, on average, relatively centrist.
If you go too far to the right or left, the backlash in elections is strong. Orpo made a grave mistake regarding long-term plans spanning multiple government terms by choosing the Finns Party over the Social Democrats.
There is no continuity in politics if you try to govern solely with right-wing and left-wing blocks.
There is only one loser in all this back-and-forth, however: Finland.
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Fiscal discipline is never popular, no matter how necessary it may be. From what I remember, this government has received quite a bit more flak in the media than other incoming governments.
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I don’t know if people would dare to discuss this matter with colleagues at work, but it gives a good indication of the evolution of our political culture.
Generally speaking, anuses are only discussed in a professional manner at a proctologist’s office.
Today’s youth are no more averse to conflict than the boomers who have only read about the causes and consequences of major wars in books. It seems to be a terrible trend of the early part of this millennium. I find myself occasionally looking back at even the Cold War years with a certain fondness. 
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Is that really the case? That back-and-forth between the right and the left has continued for almost the entire period of independence. It has demonstrably led to the building of a stable consensus society (sopimusyhteiskunta), and no single movement has been able to dominate too much. The right’s longer period of dominance ended with the wars, and the SDP’s equivalent with the recession of the 90s. One could even argue that during the eras of alternating governments, we have lived through relatively peaceful and successful times. What is the cause and what is the consequence is, of course, a difficult question to answer, but in any case, this kind of “tag-team” politics has worked quite commendably so far.
The current government has no more fiscal discipline than the previous one. They cut, yes, and government revenue is cut in the same proportion. The difference is that money is distributed differently for ideological reasons.
Now, there isn’t even COVID stopping society, no roadblocks at the Uusimaa border.
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During the Kekkonen era, the president held power in a completely different way than today. Governments changed frequently, spanning the entire political spectrum. Nevertheless, continuity was the alpha and omega, especially in foreign policy; otherwise, the direction didn’t undergo constant U-turns like it does now.
To put it very crudely and simply.
It depends entirely on the party. At least the National Coalition Party’s support should withstand that quite well. After the Aho government, the National Coalition Party’s support fell only minimally, by a little over one percentage point. After Lipponen’s first government, the party’s support rose by more than three percentage points. And even the Sipilä government didn’t erode the National Coalition Party’s popularity much.
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The Liberals have released a follow-up to last year’s feat, the ”there is plenty to cut” alternative budget. Now the difference compared to the government’s budget is already over 12 billion😁
Still slightly in deficit…
They are still short some support cards to qualify for the elections.
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HS: EU Commission concerned about Orpo government’s spending
Recognition is also being given in the EU to the displays of skill by Finland’s most capable economic parties, namely the National Coalition Party and the Finns Party. It’s certainly good to be on the right these days.
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It is easy to share the concern about the state of the Finnish economy and the need for more spending cuts. The unfortunate reality is that this coalition is, from an economic perspective, the best possible government in Finland. The previous socialist government didn’t even try to do anything, and the parties now in opposition are even more reluctant to trim the oversized public sector or push through the changes needed in the labor market.
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Same old broken record on debt, though last year the concern was Finland’s debt, now it’s the Orpo government’s spending.
Finland follows the same tactic with debt as it did with NATO membership. Meaning, prioritizing and restructuring only when forced to, unfortunately.
The Orpo government is at least trying to limit spending somehow by creating incentives to work and thus participate in “baking the cake”. As well as improving the operating conditions for companies in Finland.
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From what I’ve seen of this government term so far, they have decided to create a new incentive trap (the earnings disregard for the unemployed), reduced the money in circulation as jobs disappear from the construction sector, for example, and taken resources away from the only growth sector, i.e., the green transition.
What else? They’ve maintained the pace of national debt accumulation by reducing state revenues. I wonder if we’ll see even a single attempt this parliamentary term to actually do something about the budget deficit, or if they’ll continue until the end with the “from one pocket to another” method.
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Unfortunately, Marin’s “Now is not the right time” government left a poor legacy for Orpo’s “hope for the best” government regarding the state’s finances and the condition of the economy.
Whether Orpo’s government succeeds in its promises remains to be seen; at least they promised to try. I didn’t see much of an effort from the former government’s representatives in their election speeches. The voters felt the same way.
And no one imagines that economic balance can be achieved in a year or even a single parliamentary term, given the dire straits we are in as a result of redistribution policies and empty hopes.
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Well, if this is the Marin government’s fault, then why isn’t the Orpo government doing anything and instead continuing at exactly the same pace even as the outlook darkens?
The Marin government took on debt at low interest rates; this current one is taking it on at higher rates. Why isn’t the government doing anything?
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I don’t believe the EU Commission and Finland’s creditors are particularly interested in how some imaginary government would act here and now. The Orpo government is in charge today, and it is precisely they who must get the situation under control.
Specifically them.
Here and now.
However, painful decisions were not made, and the results are plain to see. Difficult times lie ahead, and as external pressure gradually increases, it may be that the current government will have to return to the so-called drawing board. We are not in a crisis yet, but sometimes it feels like the National Coalition Party and the Finns Party have already stopped trying at this stage, hoping that a potential upcoming economic upturn will save the Finnish economy.
Hope is all well and good, but it would have been better if painful decisions had been made right away and if election promises had been broken by citing the weaker-than-expected state of public finances or some other explanation. The Finnish economy is now driving into a wall, led by the construction industry, and the aftermath will be ugly. What is needed now is political courage and leadership so that the impacts of the coming economic depression remain as small as possible and so that a genuine recovery of public finances can get underway.
My message and free advice to the current government is very simple:
There is plenty to cut.
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