Plug Power ($PLUG)

Stocks
, ,
3689

So, you lied about me claiming Tesla would sell 20M/year? That’s probably not in line with this forum’s rules, is it? @Sijoittaja-alokas

And you continue to lie, claiming I predicted 50K Semi sales. I stated that Tesla’s Semi factory capacity is 50K/year.

You’ve also been told countless times about the progress of Tesla’s Semi factory. The factory is almost complete, and production lines are currently being installed. Production will begin very soon. A little over a year ago, there was nothing but sand there. In the future, only Semis will come out of this factory.

kuva
kuva1919×1007 216 KB

Plug’s entire electrolyzer order book is worth 360 million dollars, and it’s spread over many quarters? So far, electrolyzer sales aren’t even making a gross profit.

Plug reported an operating loss of 350 million dollars in Q3.

These numbers show anyone that Plug is in a death spiral and a completely uninvestable company, don’t they?

We’ve had a similar discussion about Nikola before, and we both know how that ended. Bankruptcy.

4 Likes
3691

Why would an investor believe that Tesla Semi production would start “any minute now” when the project has been delayed by at least 5 years and macroeconomic factors have turned against it?

And yes, in Nikola’s case, my point was only that the demand for Nikola’s hydrogen trucks is greater than for electric trucks, which it was. Undeniably so, the ratio was roughly 1/3 BEV and 2/3 FCEV.

Don’t these figures actually indicate that losses are shrinking drastically, thereby significantly reducing the threat of bankruptcy? Or rather, does anyone even believe in that bankruptcy?

The company itself writes this:

With ongoing reductions in cash burn and access to total available capital, the Company is well positioned to support operations and achieve its EBITDAS-positive target in the second half of 2026.

I happen to have this news in front of me:

Screenshot_20251116_231855_LinkedIn

It just so happened that the company recently delivered a 100MW project to Europe. Is it a coincidence then that the company has predicted achieving gross margin breakeven in Q4/25? Could it be possible that volume increases profitability? As is typical with mass production, when materials are not the determining factor.

That GALP project is 4x bigger than the Portuguese project delivered a year ago. This is the growth rate, whether you want to believe it or not. Jukka, you should reflect a bit on this market growth rate.

9 Likes
3692

Regarding that latest news that Plug is starting to cooperate with a data center, it’s only about the fact that a non-binding LOI has just been sent, meaning nothing has been agreed upon yet; it has only been decided that the matter will be discussed.

It has been quiet regarding the Finnish projects, and next year a decision should be made on what the company will do or not do. The plans for the plants coming to Finland certainly sound huge, as Plug would 20-fold its own hydrogen production with the Finnish projects.

2 Likes
3693

Plug Power Selected by Carlton Power for 55 MW GenEco Electrolyzer Deployment Across Three Green Hydrogen Projects in the United Kingdom

UK government-backed production facilities, expected to be operational in 2027, will be the largest electrolyzer installation in the country and will supply green hydrogen to decarbonize local industrial operations

4 Likes
3694

What bothers me about this company is a strong contradiction between the talks of bankruptcy and the company’s actual events. If the company is going bankrupt, as the figures suggest, why then:

A) The company is still able to secure financing to continue operations. Why does a company heading for bankruptcy succeed in this? I myself wouldn’t give a single cent if the risk of losing the money was anywhere near 100%.

B) Why is the company still able to make new sales? Have customers failed to do their background checks, or have the unpleasant facts simply been bluntly ignored? I myself would not buy any kind of equipment package from a company going bankrupt that I would want to use in my business for perhaps decades. Even smaller purchases have been scrutinized carefully when choosing a supplier. Who will provide maintenance, possible updates, and spare parts if the supplier goes out of business?

In my opinion, Nikola is not a suitable comparison, because that company practically failed to generate any sales.

9 Likes
3695

A) ESG and other “green bond” systems are still active, and large financial institutions grant financing to companies that are within them, and Plug has been within their scope for a long time. Certainly, even companies in worse condition receive financing, so I don’t see anything strange in Plug receiving financing because they are in the “green” sector.

B) New sales are coming because prices are so much better than others (the result shows why), and one can only speculate why purchases are made from Plug when the entirety of what the deal includes is unknown. For example, are many replaceable parts included, which would give security to the buyer when the lifespan is longer if the spare parts are already with the user? And as far as I understand, the lifespan is generally about 5-10 years, depending on how many hours per year they are in use.

So, financing and buyers can be found even if the company’s situation is bad, provided certain conditions are met.

1 Like
3696

From my own “gut feeling”, I’ll just throw into this electricity vs. hydrogen discussion that electricity is perhaps the thing for the present moment and still for the next (ten?) years, but hydrogen’s future will be seen more massively only after a longer period (if it comes) :thinking:

3697

The situation can also be seen as purely political. So far, if not actual political will, then at least political acceptance exists for this type of pilot activity that Plugi and its customers are undertaking. All parties will certainly receive support, and perhaps for at least some customers, these are small sums relative to their own business. However, these provide virtue signaling points for marketing materials.

As such, the entire hydrogen market outside traditional industrial applications is very strongly dependent on (support) policy. Whether the situation will ever become market-driven and economically viable is an interesting follow-up question. And will Plugi still be around to see it, or will they run out of money first?

2 Likes
3698

For example, because previously there was no factory and automated production line for manufacturing the Semi? Now the factory building has just been erected and production lines are currently being installed. Tesla has also confirmed that production will start soon.

If we return to the basics of stock investing, 5-10% of stocks explain all the returns of stock investing (i.e., indices). The returns of these mega-winners significantly distort indices and explain why they yield an average of 8% per year. The vast majority of stocks are actually poor investments. And the longer the observation period chosen, the more likely an individual target company will go bankrupt. Surprisingly many companies are able to raise financing for a surprisingly long time, even if the end result is bankruptcy.

If we look at Plug Power purely based on its reported financial figures, e.g., over the last 5 years, it is a heavily loss-making company. In addition, there is clearly something structurally wrong with its business model, as even its gross margin is strongly negative. A negative gross margin could be explained if it were temporary (e.g., starting production), but in the long run, a negative gross margin is exceptional and indicates problems in the business model. This is why I say Plug is uninvestable. Plug’s investability could be re-evaluated if its gross margin clearly turned positive. But the current -70% gross margin doesn’t turn around very easily.

Management always has to have a plan for when the business will turn profitable. Without such a plan, new financing or new sales will not happen. If you go through Plug’s interim reports for the last 10 years, I promise you will always find a plan to turn the business profitable. At this point, it’s good to ask, has the business turned profitable in 10 years? The answer is NO.

Investors should ask what is the reason why management’s promises should be trusted this time?

6 Likes
3699

And on top of that, we’re again strongly moving towards stock dilution..

1 Like
3700

kuva
kuva816×507 24.7 KB

Given the business model, one constantly has to go around with a hat in hand seeking money.

Following this news, the stock is down 20.1%.

3 Likes
3701

One of the best applications of AI, in my opinion, is its analysis of stock exchange releases and their significance for business. My understanding is that it’s very difficult for the average private investor to comprehend what, for example, yesterday’s news means. AI significantly democratizes information dissemination in this regard.

I asked AI to explain the release and tell me what’s good and what’s bad about it. Below is the answer, which also clarifies quite well why I currently consider the company uninvestable:

:magnifying_glass_tilted_left: What did Plug Power announce?

The company is issuing:

  • $375 M in new 6.75% convertible notes, due 2033

  • Potentially an additional +$56 M if the option is exercised

  • Conversion price: $3 per share (40% premium to market price)

Will receive approximately $347–399 M net

And will use the money for:

  • $245.6 M: Repayment of 15% secured super high-interest debt

  • $101.6 M (+52.4 M cash): Partial repurchase of 2026 7% convertible notes (138 M)

:green_circle: Why is this a good thing for Plug Power?

1) It avoids an acute debt crisis

Plug’s finances have been close to insolvency.
Now it:

  • pays off 15% debt, which was unsustainable

  • eases 2026 maturing debt

  • extends the maturity to 2033

:right_arrow: This buys Plug time.
No wonder the company wanted to do this — but the highest price comes to investors.

2) The new loan is clearly cheaper than the old debt

  • Old debt: 15% interest, and it was secured by collateral

  • New debt: 6.75% and convertible (meaning better terms for investors, less risk)

The company significantly reduces its interest expenses.

3) The conversion price of 3 USD is (theoretically) “price supportive”

The conversion price is 40% higher than the current price (2.14 USD).
This is a positive signal:

  • new institutional investors believe in the possibility of 3 USD

  • the company is not selling the loan with a complete “discount label”

But this is only seemingly a good thing – explanations below.

:red_circle: Why is this a bad thing and why did the stock crash?

For years, Plug Power has been known for:

  • massive losses

  • continuous share dilution

  • burning cash

This transaction reinforces all those negative narratives, and significantly so.

1) “Not enough money – again.”

Investors see this as a signal that:

  • the company will not achieve cash flow

  • it needs continuous refinancing

  • the business model is still broken

Plug has been undertaking dilutive measures year after year.
This is a continuation of the same story, and the market punishes it.

2) A really steep discount: 95% note price

The loan was sold at 95% of its price — meaning institutional buyers demanded:

  • a discount

  • a high 6.75% interest rate

  • a large conversion premium

The market sees this as a vote of no confidence.

If Plug were strong, it would get:

  • 100% note price

  • a lower interest rate

  • a higher conversion premium

Now investors forced a high price.

3) Massive potential dilution (huge)

Conversion ratio: 333.3333 shares per 1000 USD note
:right_arrow: Conversion price 3 USD.

If the entire $375M (+$56M) converts to shares:

  • new shares could amount to over 140 million

  • Plug’s current share count is approximately 700 M
    :right_arrow: Dilution +20% or more

The market hates this, given Plug’s history of continuous dilution.

4) Old owners’ share decreases, risk increases

Although the debt level decreases, a new risk arises:

The so-called “overhang” — institutional note buyers hedge their position by shorting Plug.

This is usually what happens:

  • they buy the convertible note

  • simultaneously short Plug

  • hedge the conversion option

Plug itself admits this in the release (!!).

This creates continuous selling pressure on the stock.

5) It doesn’t generate money for operational activities – only for paying off old debt

In practice:

Plug does not receive new funds for growth or to cover losses.

Everything goes to:

  • paying off old debt

  • repurchasing old convertible debt

The difference (approx. $0–$30M) is marginal.

:right_arrow: Plug is no closer to profitability or growth.
:right_arrow: It merely lives longer.

The market does not reward “debt restructuring” for a company that burns cash without a visible turnaround.

:chart_decreasing: 6) The company’s fundamental story does not change in any way

From an investor’s perspective, Plug Power’s fundamental story does not change:

  • Unprofitable

  • Burns cash

  • Nowhere near a positive gross margin

  • Huge capex and negative FCF

  • Needs new paid loans every 1–2 years

  • Path to profitability unclear

This transaction:

  • does not improve margins

  • does not reduce cash burn

  • does not increase sales

  • does not improve competitive position

That’s why the stock is falling.

:abacus: Brief summary (explaining the market reaction)

:green_circle: Good for Plug Power

  • Avoids an immediate financing crisis

  • Pays off 15% “rainy day” debt

  • Extends maturities until 2033

  • Lowers interest expenses

  • Theoretically better terms than in a catastrophic situation

:red_circle: Bad for investors

  • Very severe dilution risk

  • Convertible note sold at a discount as a sign of weakness

  • Shorting / delta-hedge pressures the stock

  • No cash left to support the business

  • The release repeats the same pattern: Plug always needs more money

  • The market sees this as a sign of desperation, not a turnaround

:right_arrow: That’s why the stock reacted negatively.

22 Likes
3702

Higher up in the thread, there are good tables of Plug’s financial figures, but I didn’t notice a breakdown by different business areas. I put what I considered the most relevant figures into Excel for the past few years, quarter by quarter. A graph is at the end of the message.

If you add trend lines to these curves, you can see that practically no significant change in any direction has occurred in these respects. The operation is so heavily loss-making that an improvement in the situation should be clearly visible here. Perhaps the development of operating expenses should be looked at, but the company’s profitability is not currently dependent on them.

All significant sales are currently loss-making. For equipment sales, I don’t understand why this is the case. The problem is big for the company and may not be easily rectified by scaling, as has been estimated earlier in the thread.

Power purchase agreements and fuel delivered to customers losses are, as I understand it, due to loss-making brokerage sales. Plug buys expensive hydrogen from the market and sells it at a loss to its customers, either as hydrogen or as energy produced from hydrogen. The profitability of these businesses only deteriorates if sales grow. The only solution is to get the price of hydrogen down, which should presumably be achieved by producing hydrogen in their own plants. Some kind of estimate should be made of the development of hydrogen/energy sales over a 1-2 year horizon, taking into account the new hydrogen production facilities under construction. My rough estimate, however, is that even if all factory projects planned for 2026 were realized, own production would still not be enough to cover hydrogen demand, even for current contracts. I could be totally wrong; the purchase and sale prices and volumes of hydrogen are more or less pulled out of a hat in my calculations.

I don’t see a quick change for the better here, let alone the operation becoming profitable within a 1-2 year horizon, because the structural change in the business still requires major changes in the company’s operating models and getting factory investments completed.

Actually, the only quick help would be to update the current heavily loss-making supply contracts and significantly raise prices, which is probably futile to expect.

Money is burning.

kuva
kuva1163×883 36.4 KB

2 Likes
3703

So, Plug has its own production of 40 TPD, which is very little, and the only plan is to build over 800 TPD facilities in Finland, but there’s still a long way to go as no decision has been made, and it should come by 2026 at the latest.

When equipment is sold at a loss, what will change next year even if delivery volumes increase? It has now been seen that as merely an equipment supplier and hydrogen broker, Plug does not operate profitably, so no relief is coming unless prices fall or they get the Finnish factories running, which is still completely open.

1 Like
3704

https://www.ir.plugpower.com/press-releases/news-details/2025/Plug-Begins-First-NASA-Liquid-Hydrogen-Contract-Opening-New-Market-in-the-Growing-Space-Industry/default.aspx

IR press release from Plug.

7 Likes
3705

IR
Plug Power Signs Letter of Intent with Hy2gen for 5MW PEM Electrolyzer Supporting France’s Hydrogen Roadmap at Sunrhyse Green Hydrogen Project

December 04, 2025

  • Agreement advances renewable, RFNBO-certified hydrogen production in southern France.

  • Partnership supports logistics and mobility decarbonization across the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur region.

  • Project expands Plug’s European footprint through collaboration with Hy2gen on green hydrogen solutions.

SLINGERLANDS, N.Y., Dec. 04, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) – Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ: PLUG), a global leader in comprehensive hydrogen solutions for the hydrogen economy, announced it has signed a letter of intent (LOI) with Hy2gen for a 5MW PEM electrolyzer to be installed at Sunrhyse, Hy2gen’s flagship hydrogen production project in Signes, France.

Hy2gen is a world-leading company in developing, financing, building, and operating plants for RFNBO-certified hydrogen production. The LOI lays the foundation for collaboration between Plug Power and Hy2gen to advance hydrogen use in southern France. Plug will support the transport and distribution of hydrogen produced at Sunrhyse and continue expanding its turnkey hydrogen forklift solutions for logistics bases across the region.

The LOI builds on Plug and Hy2gen’s growing collaboration across Europe and North America, including Hy2gen’s Project Courant in Québec, Canada, which includes a large-scale electrolyzer and aims to reach Final Investment Decision (FID) before 2027. Together, the companies are developing a global framework for renewable hydrogen production and distribution to accelerate the energy transition across key international markets.

“Expanding RFNBO-certified hydrogen production in France marks another important step in Plug’s European growth strategy,” said Jose Luis Crespo, President and Chief Revenue Officer of Plug. “With the Sunrhyse project, we’re supporting the development of local hydrogen ecosystems that can serve logistics, transport, and industrial users across southern France while advancing the region’s decarbonization goals.”

“Sunrhyse represents a major milestone in France’s hydrogen transition,” said Cyril Dufau-Sansot, CEO, Hy2gen. “Through this partnership with Plug Power, we are demonstrating how renewable hydrogen can scale quickly and provide a foundation for long-term, sustainable growth.”

IR

Plug’s contribution to the Sunrhyse project reinforces the company’s broader European strategy, which includes ongoing hydrogen production and supply operations in Germany and the Netherlands. Together, Plug and Hy2gen are paving the way for a more connected and resilient hydrogen network across Europe.

7 Likes