Palantir CEO’s plumbing renovation
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A few thoughts from yesterday. Karp’s sales plans were already visible in the 10K report published earlier in the day. When they were communicated on social media and at the same time Trump issued a decree on Pentagon’s spending cuts, the downward momentum was ready. By the way, I’m sure the Pentagon will need Palantir even in its spending cuts. Yesterday was thus a normal momentum stock movement. We’ll get more of that in the future.
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Now it seems that those cuts to the defense budget will hit programs related to climate change and “woke.” I don’t know what that means in practice, but in light of this information, software and hardware seem to be relatively safe. As Palantir, I am not worried myself.
It’s also good to remember that Trump cannot decide on the budget alone. It still goes through Congress, which all defense lobbyists are surely already greasing at the moment. The defense sector is also such a big employer that cuts are a sensitive topic for many politicians. Pork-barrel politics also works in the US.
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The tweet below claimed that the market overreacted to the Pentagon’s 8 percent budget cut, while in reality, money is being shifted from traditional contractors towards AI-based and automated systems, meaning that more and more of the $900 billion annual budget is being invested in technology, which directly benefits Palantir.
Palantir is already playing a key role in Pentagon AI projects, such as Project Maven (combat intelligence) and the TITAN program (“real-time decision-making”). The budget cuts only accelerate the transition to more efficient solutions (if one thinks very positively?).
According to the tweet, the stock’s decline is due more to the CEO’s stock sale announcement than to the company’s fundamental outlook, but those were already known earlier.
AI-based defense spending growth continues.
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Ripcord and Palantir announced a strategic partnership, combining Ripcord’s robotic digitization and Palantir’s AI platform.
The collaboration helps companies transform documents into valuable data, improving decision-making and AI model training across various industries, such as finance and healthcare.
https://x.com/PLTRs_Palantir/status/1899798614253154710
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Tonight at AIPCon 6. I recommend watching as customers enthusiastically praise how Pili has revolutionized their operations.
https://x.com/PalantirTech/status/1899553733584794106
https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1ypKdZWznRQJW
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Palantir and Databricks have formed a strategic partnership to combine Palantir’s AIP and Databricks’ Data Intelligence Platform.
The collaboration brings together Palantir’s Ontology System and Databricks’ AI and data processing capabilities, enabling secure and scalable AI-powered workflows. The solution is already being leveraged by, among others, the U.S. Department of Defense and the Department of the Treasury.
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Here’s the list of partnerships released this week by Grok:
Saronic
Saildrone
Archer Aviation
Ripcord
KT Corp
Ethicrithm
Ondas
Qualcomm
Databricks
Awesome AIPCon 6 intro video: https://x.com/BrettKrieger12/status/1900233192956653728
AIPCon Fox interview: Dr. KARP CEO of $PLTR
“WE HAVE AVALANCHE OF DEMAND”
https://x.com/MikeLongTerm/status/1900251773597868174
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HCP Portfolio Manager Pasi Havia shares his thoughts on the HCP Focus fund’s latest addition, Palantir. 
An investor looking at Palantir’s valuation multiples might have a heart attack. The company’s P/E ratio hovers in the hundreds. Because the company’s bottom line figure is still quite small at this stage, the multiples are able to rise extremely high.
Our view is that with the company’s recurring benefits (lower development costs, growing customer base and revenue, high margins, and so on), the multiples should catch up in the coming years. The risk, of course, is that if there are wrinkles in the company’s growth story, the stock price could fall sharply. It is natural that the company’s stock price cannot remain at the level of such multiples for a long time; the company must prove its profitable growth.
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Oh, someone is buying at these prices, which are sky-high (still) compared to the company’s expected growth and profitability. Price is what you pay, value is what you get. The picture speaks for itself.
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Here is a light analysis of Palantir, which, according to that analysis, has established itself as a market leader in data analytics and its long-term growth prospects look promising.
The analysis highlights that the company’s strong position in the public sector, combined with growing interest in enterprise data solutions, creates a solid foundation for future success. It is acknowledged that the valuation is high, but it is also stated how Palantir’s unique technology and strong customer base justify premium pricing.
https://x.com/QCompounding/status/1901257908463251664
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The analysis shared by @Sijoittaja-alokas above was good to share in this thread. Because it’s a good example of how challenging Palantir is for analysts. Probably most analysts do similar types [of analyses] where the company is discussed at a very high level, because the writer hasn’t really articulated what Palantir is all about.
I have the impression (or imagination) that the guys from Palantir Weekly have tried to investigate the company more deeply. They have participated in Palantir’s customer events and met Alex Karp several times.
The latest episode was good. Because after about 29 and a half minutes, Amit asks Steve (bottom left corner) what Palantir’s fair value is. And it’s about $40 on Steve’s calculator. A really good discussion about valuation takes place, where Arny is on a completely different page than Steve. And MattMoney somewhere in between. What all gentlemen have in common is that everyone believes Palantir will be the #2 company after Microsoft in the future. A heated discussion takes place, and Steve isn’t selling because it’s a good company and he doesn’t want to pay taxes. Arny understands the high price but isn’t buying more now. The group has completely different ideas about the true value, but everyone is hodling. So Steve isn’t selling either. In the video, Steve’s spreadsheets are shown where he demonstrates how “expensive” Palantir is right now. I’ll put the link to that episode below.
It’s nice to listen to the discussion because the guys have their own money at stake, with holdings in the range of several thousand shares.
My own conclusion is that Palantir is the world’s leading AI company and probably best at implementing AI for the needs of various industries. It has an even more significant future ahead than its present. I have the same “stock policy” as those guys. I don’t sell and I don’t buy. I don’t even consider selling. I’m just sitting on what I have.
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The tweet below says that many don’t understand Palantir because it doesn’t fit the traditional enterprise software “narrative,” and perhaps I don’t understand it either, but that’s most likely due to my lack of understanding rather than anything else.
According to the tweet, Palantir doesn’t inherently offer better reports but rather builds an AI-powered core decision-making layer for critical, real-time environments. AIP, the company’s AI platform, doesn’t provide direct recommendations/instructions, but it guides operations, simulates, allocates resources, and continuously adapts. Palantir is leading the way.
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That’s a good take, and it certainly clarified a lot for me as well.
The question from an investor’s perspective is whether we are now talking about (apart from developing AI itself) one of the most significant companies in integrating AI into everyday life, or some phantom company created by hype that quickly withers under competitive pressure.
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$PLTR x NATO
AI-enabled warfighting system to provide a common data enabled warfighting capability to the Alliance.
https://shape.nato.int/news-releases/nato-acquires-aienabled-warfighting-system-
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Palantir’s cooperation with NATO is a big deal. This is how Palantir enters Europe. European companies will hardly fail to notice that Palantir’s software, adaptable to various industries, is being used for the defense of their home countries. This is one reason for Palantir’s high valuation. I personally think that Palantir is also a safe haven against times of crisis; I like Palantir more than a gold bar.
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Amit Kukreja interviewed Louis Mosley (Palantir’s Executive Vice President of UK & Europe).
I find these informal interviews good because they offer new perspectives in addition to official investor calls. Below are my thoughts based on the discussion. New information for me was that London is an important product development center for Palantir; according to Louis, the London area has a very high level of technical expertise. And London was Palantir’s largest office for a long time; only in the last couple of years has New York surpassed it. As a European, Louis is concerned that Europe is not investing in AI. Louis mentioned that previously, Palantir’s European customers, such as BP, Airbus, and BMW, were investing in Palantir on a growth trajectory. Currently, the situation is that the USA is investing in AI on a 50% growth trajectory, while Europe has fallen below a 10% trajectory. According to Louis, the EU’s regulatory zeal certainly doesn’t promote Europe’s “weakening” situation.
Louis spoke about the cooperation between the UK’s National Health System, or NHS, and Palantir. The NHS is like Finland’s public healthcare. Palantir won the NHS IT competition in 2023, and now Palantir is building a data-driven comprehensive view of the entire healthcare system for the NHS. Another mentioned project was a police information system project, which speeds up the processing of police tasks by 95%. Louis stated that solutions developed in England can be implemented anywhere in the world. In other words, the market area is the entire world. If and when Palantir is a system in healthcare that analyzes data and guides operations, but is not used for recording diagnoses (that is done in the patient information system), then the software’s scaling advantages can be realized much better than for patient information systems, which must be customized to each country’s legislation. And Louis mentioned that the British armed forces help Baltic Sea countries identify sabotage attempts by ships, using Palantir’s software for this.
Palantir’s software and underlying data architecture thus appear to be well thought out. Is Palantir, then, at the source of a new software innovation? The numbers suggest so:
SAP market capitalization $300 billion / 109,000 employees
Palantir market capitalization $200 billion / 4,000 employees
SAP has helped the world globalize and keep order-delivery-invoicing chains in order. What new does Palantir bring compared to, say, SAP? I understand it such that SAP has its own modules for each entity, e.g., order-delivery module, finance module, HR module, project module, purchasing module, sales module, etc. SAP’s structure reflects a traditional company structure where each department handles a specific task. The dynamic between departments is reactive; for example, if the finance department notices the cash dwindling too much, sales are called, then the order-delivery unit, and so on. And corrective actions are taken, and things get sorted out.
I personally guess that Palantir’s “novelty value” lies in the fact that behind the word ontology is object-oriented programming, familiar to programmers, and the long-term (20 years) use of AI and its continuous development in use. Through long-term work, Palantir has developed a software solution that is flexible. That is, its use is not limited solely to predefined situations; instead, the software can more easily define the customer company’s current “situation” than in the ERP world, and various situational scenarios can be simulated comprehensively and very versatilely, very flexibly compared to SAP. I don’t mean at all that SAP is somehow weak; but Palantir had to be compared to something.
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Palantir and Google join forces to bring the FedStart platform to Google Cloud.
The collaboration strengthens Palantir’s position as a technology partner for the U.S. public sector and enables smaller software companies easier access to government markets. Additionally, the solution leverages Google’s infrastructure and Palantir’s technology, which meets demanding security requirements.
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This year, Palantir has risen sharply, even as the rest of the tech sector has declined. According to the article below, the company benefits from its strong position in US government contracts and its emphasis on efficiency, which aligns with the goals of the Trump administration.
Palantir’s AI-powered tools and defense sector contracts have significantly increased its revenue. However, general economic and trade war fears have indeed pushed other tech giants down.
At the same time, the Trump administration has clamped down on government spending, giving Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency freedom to slash public sector costs. Some administration officials have touted shifting dollars from consulting contracts to commercial software providers like Palantir, said William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma.
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Q1 results will be released after the stock market closes on Monday. A few thoughts before that. Palantir is a stock market darling, just like Tesla. The stock market grants a special status to its darlings, allowing for earnings disappointments, as seen once again with Tesla. There was no falling knife after the weak results. And Palantir’s stock is now aiming for an ATH amidst the Trump turmoil.
What is Palantir about now? Why is it a stock market darling? Every Palantir investor should somehow answer this question for themselves, because in light of previous earnings figures, the company is a strong sell.
I consider Nvidia the king of S&P companies. Best track record. Best balance sheet, best growth, best margin, best chip, best employer, etc. Palantir is catching up in the aforementioned criteria, but is a little behind.
But my conclusion is this: Palantir is at the top of the value chain (and thus above Nvidia). Palantir offers turnkey solutions directly to paying companies and governments. In IT procurement, a so-called ROI calculation is performed, i.e., the total cost of the acquisition is determined for, for example, 5 years (Palantir software cost, software support fees, possible LLM and other cloud computing costs (this is where Nvidia’s cost also comes in), consulting costs for customer-specific customization, integration costs, the customer organization’s own investments in the implementation project, etc.). Palantir sees the entire customer company’s TCO, i.e., the total lifecycle cost. And then Palantir holds an AIPCon demo day. Based on this, Palantir, together with the customer company, defines the processes in which Palantir’s software will be used. Palantir can very easily see the customer’s outline of how the software changes the customer’s own processes and what savings can be achieved. Palantir is thus in the driver’s seat with the customer during the software sales phase. Palantir is very capable of guiding its customer to find new needs that the customer benefits from with Palantir’s software. The result is that Palantir’s probability of getting good deals for itself is high. And because there is no comparable competitor in the market, Palantir can pick the best berries (the best deals) for itself.
I was thinking about what indicates that there are no similar companies. I approach the matter from the perspective of the latest news. This news (below) states that Palantir and AI company Anthropic have agreed that Anthropic will be connected to Palantir’s FedStart program. The aforementioned program has been in use at Palantir for years; the idea of the program is to give startups, etc., the opportunity to bring solutions to public administration. Palantir has built the FedStart umbrella, under which a startup can bypass most of the public administration’s application bureaucracy, because Palantir has originally done a large audit/permit work for its FedStart program. As an aside, this is a good example of how the US software industry is creative and develops mechanisms to accelerate development.
The above described means many things. Palantir is the godfather of the software industry towards the federal government. However, Palantir does not do charity. It does send bills for its services. What is essential in the previous news and in the Google news shared by @Sijoittaja-alokas earlier in this thread is that Palantir offers FedStart, i.e., access to the federal market, for Google Cloud, AWS, and Azure SaaS services. My second aside; Palantir’s solutions may narrow Cloudflare’s market; one of Cloudflare’s cornerstones has been Cloudflare’s own cloud service combining different clouds. There are also differences, Cloudflare focuses on edge computing, and Palantir, on the other hand, offers a runtime environment for SaaS services with even the highest security classification.
In my previous posts, I have presented the features of Palantir’s software, mainly from an ontology perspective. That too is unique, at least to some extent. Surely there are thousands of small workshops in the world that can challenge Palantir in hackathon events. But taking ontology to a functional, ROI-producing service is a path that many coding teams better than Palantir fail to take.
Now it’s a good time to give an earnings forecast, as I probably won’t have time to follow the earnings release on Monday. Cloudflare and Palantir are both SaaS companies. Cloudflare productized its software service earlier than Palantir. Palantir only around 2023. In 2022, during the small recession caused by interest rate hikes, Cloudflare was able to grow steadily and reduce its losses. This means that SaaS companies are better than average at navigating macro turmoil. As a result, I expect good development to continue. On Monday, steady good growth with a good margin will be reported.
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