In connection with Aperam, Jefferies estimates that CBAM and new EU trade defense measures will bring an approx. €200m EBITDA increase (pricing, capacity utilization).
Aperam’s EBITDA (2025: €340m) is estimated to rise to €484m in 2026 and €650m in 2027.
Significant increases, then, and logically Outokumpu Europe will enjoy similar benefits.
The steelmaker is projected to see up to €200 million in EBITDA gains from European Union policies, including the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and new trade defense measures.
These policies are expected to support pricing and utilization starting in the second half of 2026, with a potential utilization uplift of 7% to 10%.
For the full year 2026, Jefferies estimated EBITDA at €484 million, rising to €650 million in 2027. First-quarter 2026 EBITDA is expected to reach €86 million, up from €67 million in the previous quarter, driven by seasonal volume recovery in Europe.
This improvement comes despite mid-single-digit million-euro headwinds from higher energy costs.