Ohessa Jefferies-turinoita tavoitehinnan nostamiseen liittyen.
Kuulostaa, että nosto tehtiin tulevaisuuden (2h2026 alkaen / 2027) arvioihin liittyen, koska niin 4Q2025 kuin 2026 Ebitdaa laskettiin.
Jefferies downgraded Outokumpu to “hold” from “buy” rating, citing a lack of near-term earnings momentum despite a sharp share price rally and a partial valuation re-rating, in a note dated Friday.
The downgrade was issued after the stock rose about 62% over the past year, outperforming the broader European steel sector, which gained about 37% over the same period..
The brokerage cut its adjusted EBITDA estimates across the forecast period, lowering fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA by 10% to €171 million from €189 million.
Jefferies also reduced its 2025 EBITDA estimate by 9% and its 2026 estimate by 7%, citing weaker-than-expected conditions in Europe, muted demand in the Americas despite higher prices, and the impact of an enterprise resource planning rollout.
The brokerage said European macroeconomic conditions remain soft, with demand subdued, import penetration elevated and pricing showing little sign of recovery in the near term.
Jefferies said Outokumpu’s shares are now trading above their 10-year average valuation, with the stock valued at 6.2x next-twelve-month EV/EBITDA compared with a historical average of 5.3x.
The brokerage said this re-rating has occurred without corresponding upgrades to near-term earnings expectations, which Jefferies said it does not expect in the first half of 2026. As a result, the firm described the risk-reward profile as balanced and said clearer evidence of sustained earnings recovery is needed to support a more positive stance.
Despite the downgrade, Jefferies raised its price target to €5 from €4.50, reflecting a higher valuation multiple rather than improved earnings expectations.
The new target is based on a 5.3x EV/EBITDA multiple applied to a mid-cycle EBITDA assumption of €450 million, in line with the company’s long-term average valuation.
At the time of the report, Outokumpu shares were trading at about €4.78, implying roughly 5% upside to the revised target.
Jefferies said it does not expect incremental capital returns in 2026 and noted that any recovery in stainless steel demand is likely to come later in the cycle compared with carbon steel.
The brokerage said earnings momentum is expected to pick up only from the second half of 2026 into 2027, reinforcing its decision to downgrade the stock to Hold after its recent outperformance.