I wouldn’t interpret those numbers quite so pessimistically. I had to listen to Kati’s Inderes presentation again, with time. Outokumpu does have a clear “strategy” for improving margins. It also requires investments. The numbers are expected to improve.
AI-calculated scenario.
2) Realistic scenario – EVOLVE partially succeeds
Assumptions
P/BV rises 0.5 → 0.7–0.8
EBITDA grows +150…200 M€
Dividend 4–6 % / year
Average economic cycle
ROI estimate
A. Increase in valuation multiple:
0.5 → 0.75 = +50 %
B. Dividends over 10 years:
≈ 5 % / year → +50 % total (assuming dividends are reinvested, return could be up to +60–70 %)
Total return 10y:
≈ +100…+140 %
Annual return:
≈ 7–9 % / year
This is the “most likely” long-term scenario held by many analysts