Just bought/sold (Part 8)

Stocks
3237

I started building a new position yesterday and continued today: Lumo Kodit.

Personally, I had thought that a P/B of 0.6 would be the point to start buying, but today the price was already at 0.5. One must probably allow for the possibility that the balance sheet values might not be entirely solid in actual trading. Regardless, the discount was now sufficient.

I did some calculations with Gemini last night, estimating that with minor actions, the share price could be around €50 in the year 2050, plus the accumulated pile of dividends.

I used the following assumptions:

Very low increases in apartment rents and value (0.5-1.5% per year) to balance out potential bloating in current balance sheet values.

An occupancy rate of 95-96%, i.e., the current level of the old portfolio.

In the initial phase, very active debt reduction (LTV 45 → 40%), which would be maintained as an upper limit in the future despite continuous investments.

Switching dividend distributions to share buybacks (1.5% per year) during the debt reduction period, followed by moderate buybacks (0.75%) and a growing dividend.

Alternatively, I can see a faster scenario where the P/B recovers from 0.5 → 0.85 and I sell the shares at a price of approx. €12-12.5 even within the coming years.

On the other hand, a collapse in balance sheet values would also lead to the P/B ratio returning to “normal,” and at that point, I could conclude: RIP money, I should have jumped on the AI train.

But chugga chugga,

said the train,

I stared at the wall,

only Lumo remained.

–

PS. This idea for a purchase, brought about by a head full of flu, is not an investment recommendation either.

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3238

After sleeping on it, I decided to sell the rest of my Optomed shares. These are the biggest losses of my investing career so far—thousands in the red.

It definitely hurts.

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3239

I did some light trading, as I often do, and this time it involved WisdomTree Silver 2x Daily.

AI gave me some advice on risk management, and I executed this with two positions by selling and buying back the position on the same day.

  • 65 units @ €17.35 Sell 65 units @ €18.68

  • Profit +€78.45 (net)

  • 65 units @ €18.87 Sell 65 units @ €20.51

  • Profit +€98.60 (net)

Yes, it’s small change, but it was fun and I’ll do it again. From a risk management perspective, this was a fairly successful trade because there was no certainty whether the price of silver would rise today or not. Of course, I would have made a larger profit if I had only locked in the gains today, but the risk would also have been higher.

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3240

Siltronic sell. This time a 70% return was enough, and we go our separate ways. Even though I have faith in the company, the rise has been so rapid that this is enough for me.

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3242

My patience is wearing thin, but I sold the Optomed shares I bought yesterday + a small additional batch. The CEO interview was mostly depressing to watch.

In their place, I’ve added SoFi and Kuros Bio, which have a good track record, a clear understanding of what they are doing and where they are going, ambitious goals, and they actually communicate them to shareholders.

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3243

Well then. My last trades were back in last year, so it’s time to start the chaos.

I went and did something stupid:

Sold all TIETO at a +28% profit + spring dividends.

Used half of the proceeds from above to buy MANTA. After tomorrow, I might put in the other half if it drops suitably.

Edit. MANTA bought @6.580 and my average price is now exactly 6€.

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3244

I bought The Platform Group once again at €2.51. The bounce from a few weeks ago is history, and we are knocking on ATL (All-Time Low) levels again. I’ll probably go to the grave with this stock, but I intend to see this card through to the end (don’t worry, I don’t invest with borrowed money :slightly_smiling_face: ). I suppose this must be some kind of scam like Intellego, because otherwise, I don’t understand this valuation level. A growing company with a P/E of just over 1.

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3245

Intrum is out of the portfolio. I’ll buy it back cheaper later if I feel like it. Maybe it would be better to just forget this one and focus on productive investments.

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3246

Bought 3,500 shares of Lumo Kodit. Cheap as chips. Feels just like buying an investment property :slight_smile:

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3247

At the time of writing, I had the idea of adding to my Incap position, which never triggered as the share price took off from the 9.2x range to 10.x levels. However, I decided to set a “stink bid” at the lows of the current year at @9.13, and today it finally hit. Mr. Market’s mood certainly changes quickly.

Edit. Also added more Gofore today since it was available under 11 euros. Now I’ve got a good spread of funeral catering ready for these small caps, in case the direction never actually turns.

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3248

BUY

IREN trim 1/24, added AMPX with this, which is tanking after a good earnings report. To quote a friend of mine: ‘That’s a company that sells batteries to China. To China!’

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3249

Bought 100 shares of Olvi. Reinvesting the dividends from the spring. Previous purchase was in April. Olvi is one of the smallest positions in my portfolio.

Bought 800 shares of Ilkka since they were available for under 4 euros. The interim report was expectedly weak, and according to the CEO, strategic investments continued as planned. This is bad because Ilkka’s strategy is to burn shareholder wealth. However, I bought more because the valuation is well below book value, and I’m betting that the unification of the share classes will allow a ray of common sense to shine all the way to Ostrobothnia. If a pile of crap costs 4 euros, but the combined value of the individual turds is nearly double that, it might actually be a good investment.

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3250

I’ve been weighing up whether to sell Optomed. The company has by no means met the expectations I set when I first bought in. In fact, I don’t even believe there is a high probability of those goals being achieved anymore. However, the current price level is no longer dizzying, and the market cap is starting to look almost ridiculous. So, since I didn’t sell a week ago, I ended up adding almost the same number of shares today as I already had in my portfolio.
I’ll let them sit there until something happens one way or the other. That might take quite a while.

Optomed add, like a true bagholder, at €1.580

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3251

Equity Savings Account (OST)

Second reduction 1/23, used this to add LapWall - I will however have to reduce LW from the Book-entry Account (AOT) side at some point to have some cash.

So these :down_arrow: added the day before yesterday have now been moved elsewhere again

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3252

Same here, cautiously added Optomed at €1.60, since I failed to sell in time. Let’s see how low it slides.

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3253

Today was an eventful day alongside the previously communicated Lumo addition:

Sold approx. 54k shares of Eezy acquired from the share issue at €0.125 and €0.13 → approx. €1,000 profit.

Buy:

Aspo 500 shares, position is now a bit over 2% of the portfolio. Interested in the demergers and divestments, and it doesn’t look expensive.

And some of the Eezy funds into Duell, which took a quick jump from €1.28 → €1.40 as the ask side cleared out. I intended to buy more, but the ask side vanished surprisingly fast after user zen65 swept the board.

A €500 deposit to the equity savings account (OST) and bought Mandatum, Anora, Sanoma, Sampo, and 2 shares of Nokian Panimo with the remaining change from the trades.

Additionally, I concluded that I’m now seriously building these “interest” positions and put €1,800 into Tradeka’s yield shares (tuotto-osuus). It’s a long journey, but with a €50k position and 4+% net yield, one would get nice summer holiday money annually.

Originally, when leaving work, the plan was to have that €50k in fixed income/interest products, but now, nearly 1.5 years later, I’m approaching the €30k mark and the target has been doubled. Not exactly fast-paced.

The stock market seemed to be burning all around today; luckily, I have liquidity freed up for this.

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3254

I snapped up a small slice of Pharming for my portfolio, having missed out on it earlier. This seems like a better horse to bet on than the small-cap health tech firms on the Helsinki Stock Exchange (Hesuli), where I’ve already burned my fingers a couple of times.

3255

And these QT shares sold @ 20.70 euros. I was expecting better quick gains, but I’m gathering cash into the portfolio.

3256

Second batch of the same, adding a 3% position in Lvmh. We might not see rocket-like growth, but the business is stable. The product sectors complement each other when one is performing poorly. The desire to signal one’s status to others through luxury goods remains in a rapidly changing world.

Additionally, added 1% more of Adyen. The interim report was good, so confidence in the future grew and I bought more.

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3257

And as it happened, the stop-loss on Nokia got hit, and nothing remains but a 10% “tracking position” of the original, just so it starts annoying me when the mooning begins again… This adventure did leave me with a good couple of weeks’ worth of cold hard cash :wink:

These funds have been fed back into the market via Raisio :grin:

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