If you panic, be the first to panic. Well, I wasn’t the first, damn it.
Sales:
- Nokian Tyres. Fortunately, a relatively small special situation position sold from the portfolio. From the outset, I didn’t consider the company high-quality, nor do I like the industry (Uh, so why did I buy this? Dumdum…). In honor of this, small losses were realized in the portfolio.
The reason I’m divesting the position, even though my main thesis is still valid (ramp-up of the Romanian factory and high-margin tires from there), is:
A very soft Q4.
Dividend distribution. Good that it’s slightly more moderate, but far too much for this result.
The biggest reason is the 2025 guidance, which was very, very soft. Analysts will drastically revise their forecasts downwards. Does the new CEO want to start with soft guidance so they can beat expectations later in the year?
A quick check shows that expectations have been missed for at least 8 consecutive quarters now. Of course, these are analysts’ “mistakes,” but at some point, the company should also demonstrate its quality.
Is demand really as good as expected? The release, exaggeratedly, gave the impression that there are tires on the shelf, just waiting for someone to buy them.
It’s hard to find good, positive highlights from the report, which is why I’m quoting Verphu, a great thinker of our time, and selling my shares.