Orthex - Plastic for the World

Here are Thomas’s pre-comments as Orthex publishes its Q4 results on Wednesday. :slight_smile:

We expect a slight decrease in revenue from an unfairly strong comparison period level in a subdued demand environment. Our forecasts predict a growing dividend distribution from Orthex, but as is its custom, we do not expect the company to provide guidance for the current year. Due to the lack of guidance and the reported weak performance of some Orthex export market distributors in the media, comments related to market outlook are particularly interesting.

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Stable performance in a subdued market

This release is a summary of Orthex Corporation’s financial statement release for January-December 2024. The full report is attached to this release in PDF format and is also available on Orthex’s website at Orthex sijoittajille - Orthex Group - Yhtiön verkkosivut.

October-December 2024

  • Billed sales were EUR 24.4 million (23.9)
  • Revenue grew by 2.0% and was EUR 23.9 million (23.4)
  • Adjusted EBITDA was EUR 4.2 million (3.9)
  • Adjusted EBITA was EUR 3.0 million (2.9), or 12.7% of revenue (12.4)
  • Operating profit was EUR 2.7 million (2.9)
  • Cash flow from operations was EUR 2.4 million (0.4)
  • Earnings per share, undiluted, were EUR 0.10 (0.12)

January-December 2024

  • Billed sales grew by 4.9% and were EUR 92.3 million (88.0)
  • Revenue grew by 4.4% and was EUR 89.7 million (85.9)
  • Adjusted EBITDA was EUR 14.6 million (14.9)
  • Adjusted EBITA was EUR 10.2 million (10.9), or 11.4% of revenue (12.7)
  • Operating profit was EUR 9.8 million (10.8)
  • Cash flow from operations was EUR 11.8 million (10.2)
  • Net debt / adjusted EBITDA was 1.4 (1.5)
  • Earnings per share, undiluted, were EUR 0.34 (0.39)
  • The Board proposes a dividend of EUR 0.22 per share, totaling approximately EUR 3.9 million. The dividend is proposed to be paid in two installments.
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The business environment in 2024 was characterized by cautious consumer behavior and customer uncertainty. Although inflationary pressures eased and interest rates began to decline during the year, this did not have a significant impact on demand. However, Orthex succeeded in growing full-year invoiced sales across all product categories and all geographical markets, ending the year with a record sales quarter. Although I had expected a more favorable operating environment and stronger growth, I am convinced that our performance provides a strong foundation for future growth.

I also specifically noted the CEO’s comment on the past and future.

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You managed to link this before me :clap: . A convincing performance from the Nordics, achieving growth in this market despite a strong comparison period. Export revenue roughly met expectations, and the reduction in sales to some customers with increased credit risks was limited during the fourth quarter, which weighed on growth as we anticipated in the preview. From here, I would like to see growth pick up, as the story relies so heavily on Europe’s large growth markets.

Profitability exceeded expectations, driven by higher revenue and lower marketing investments than I anticipated. Profitability was weighed down by increased credit loss provisions, but these seemed to remain limited in the overall picture.
Suggestions for questions for Alexander’s interview can be proposed in the thread :point_down:

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Webcast Q4’24 (recording)

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Thomas has prepared a new company report on Orthex right after Q4. :slight_smile:

Orthex’s Q4 report was stronger than our expectations, aided by Nordic sales. However, longer-term value creation relies heavily on the growth of export markets, which has recently struggled due to challenges with distribution partners. In our opinion, the stock’s valuation appears moderate, but an attractive return expectation requires a sustainable turnaround in earnings growth.

Quoted from the report:

We are reserved about the company’s ability to maintain price increases in the context of a significant decline in raw material prices, but so far, the evidence has supported its pricing power. In our forecasts, Orthex’s normalized operating profit margin over the cycle is approximately 12-13%, which is still significantly below the company’s own target level. In our opinion, relying on Orthex’s targeted 18% EBITDA margin is, at this stage of the investment story and with current evidence, unfounded.

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Nordea julkaisi päivitetyn Orthex-analyysinsä Q4-tuloksen jäljiltä. Suositus (PIDÄ) ja Fair value (5,70 €) pysyvät ennallaan. :point_down:

The main upside risks for Orthex relate to falling raw material prices (plastics), which could support the company’s gross margin and earnings. A faster-than-expected profitable expansion in European countries outside the Nordics could be a positive driver. A pickup in consumer confidence and disposable income could support Orthex’s sales and profitability.

The main downside risks for Orthex relate to raw material prices, morespecifically to virgin plastics prices. Orthex may not be able to raise prices to mitigate potentially higher raw material costs. The perception of plastic products could also negatively impact investors’ view on the company. Orthex’s products are mainly sold through large retailers in the Nordic region and Europe. Losing a large retailer as a customer could impact Orthex’s fi nancials negatively.

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@Thomas_Westerholm I noticed that Orthex’s company page apparently hasn’t been updated with the latest information, as the tables for 2024 still seem to show old forecasted data?

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Since I don’t speak Czech, I have to use a translator. However, the message is clear enough that I think the translation is correct.

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This alone, of course, doesn’t mean anything yet, as I myself have seen cheap Polish boxes, for example, in Tokmanni stores placed right next to SmartStore boxes. When the price level of cheap boxes is close to half of Orthex’s, a price-conscious customer will surely choose the cheaper option. Of course, they are quite flimsy compared to those branded boxes, and I believe and hope that the consumer will choose the higher quality and more durable product on the second round. These Polish and other cheap boxes are undoubtedly even more available in the Eastern European market.

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Yesterday, I submitted a shareholder initiative on the Finnish Shareholders’ Association website Osakasaloite.fi - Suomen Osakesäästäjät. Its main purpose is to improve the company’s investor communication and visibility for investors. I have drafted a list of five measures for the company, which includes, among other things, creating an investor communication strategy and hiring an investor communication professional for the company. Now that this task is handled by the CEO and CFO, no one is really taking care of it. Additionally, in the initiative, I criticize, among other things, the fact that the company reports extensively on ESG and other responsibility matters, even though the majority of shareholders (over 33%) represent ordinary Finnish households. In my opinion, there is a clear contradiction here, as I do not see these ESG etc. reports being prepared primarily for private investors, but for some other stakeholder group entirely. My view is that investors are the most poorly managed stakeholder group of the company. And I want to see a change in this. I don’t know if I’ve listened to Putkonen too much, but this ESG greenwashing by smaller companies is starting to annoy me. I certainly didn’t invest in Orthex because it has comprehensive sustainability reporting. I invest in companies solely and exclusively because they adhere to the purpose stipulated in Section 5 of the Companies Act (624/2006): to generate profit for shareholders.

The initiative is not yet visible, as I checked just now. The signing period is until the end of May (unless it is extended for some reason). I don’t believe a longer period will improve the progress of the matter. Hopefully, as many people as possible who feel the same way will sign the initiative. When I checked the Inderes website yesterday, I found three events since the listing that were not related to earnings calls or their company interviews, and where the CEO was talking about the company. This is less than once a year, as the company completed 4 years on the list at the end of last month.

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Those reports are not made just for fun; their creation is mandatory. Sustainability reporting regulation - IFRS and sustainability reporting supervision - www.finanssivalvonta.fi

“The Reporting Directive is part of the EU’s European Green Deal, to which the Commission committed in its communication on 11 December 2019. The program is the Union’s new growth strategy. It aims to make the Union a modern, resource-efficient, and competitive economy, striving for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The goal is also to protect, manage, and increase natural capital, and to protect citizens’ health and well-being from environmental risks and impacts. Likewise, the aim is to achieve economic growth without increasing resource use and to ensure that all regions and citizens are involved in a socially just transition to a sustainable economic system, so that no one and no region is left behind. The program promotes the goal of building an economy that works for people, strengthening the social market economy, and helping to ensure that the Union is ready for the future and that it creates stability, jobs, growth, and sustainable investments.” Government proposal to Parliament

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I don’t get the impression from this press release that this sustainability reporting is done solely due to regulation. Some of it certainly is.

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Among the market and stock exchange activists I follow, Professor Vesa Puttonen and grill owner/journalist Karo Hämäläinen, among others, have clearly highlighted in recent weeks and days that the markets are no longer willing to pay any kind of “green premium” for companies revolving around this ESG theme (see Inderespodi 221 & Karo’s Grilli episode #54). I also have no reason to assume otherwise.

The truth, however, is that a company spends some of its limited resources, for example, working hours, on this “voluntary” sustainability work and reporting. If the markets do not assign any added value to this work and therefore do not price the stock at a premium relative to competitors, this does not bring added value to the shareholder, but rather the opposite. The question is not whether acting responsibly would be sensible. Of course, it is. But if one examines the question from the perspective of whether comprehensive sustainability reporting brings added value to the shareholder, opinions on this can vary.
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I argue that the majority of those who have invested in the company have never familiarized themselves with, for example, the company’s ESG goals and metrics, and not everyone even understands what these are. I don’t precisely understand the content of all of these either. But I understand by looking at the stock chart that this has not had an impact on the company’s value development. Or if it has, it has at most been a force keeping it in place.

Addition: I asked Grok which company on the Helsinki Stock Exchange has the broadest and most comprehensive sustainability reporting relative to its market capitalization. The answer was interesting and showed that, at least according to AI’s view, Orthex outperforms most companies with larger market capitalization. Direct answer below :backhand_index_pointing_down:

Assessing the most comprehensive and extensive sustainability reporting relative to a company’s market capitalization is challenging, as it requires comparing both the quality and scope of reporting and the market capitalization. In Finland, Nasdaq Helsinki has gained recognition as a pioneer in sustainability reporting, and many of its listed companies report extensively on ESG factors (Environmental, Social, Governance). In this response, I combine available information, common reporting standards, and logic to assess which company on the Helsinki Stock Exchange might stand out in this regard. Since an exact ranking list is not directly available, I will make an informed guess.

Approach

  1. Scope and comprehensiveness of sustainability reporting: This refers to the depth of reporting (e.g., use of GRI standards, TCFD recommendations, CDP scores), transparency (e.g., emissions, supply chain management), external validation (e.g., third-party assurance), and coverage across different ESG areas.

  2. Market capitalization: I compare companies with relatively smaller market capitalization but still strong reporting, as larger companies (e.g., Kone, Neste) often have the resources for more extensive reporting.

  3. Helsinki Stock Exchange context: Nasdaq Helsinki has been praised particularly for reporting on environmental indicators, such as emissions and energy consumption, so I emphasize companies that excel in these areas.

Assessment

The Helsinki Stock Exchange has approximately 190 listed companies, and their market capitalizations range from a few million euros to tens of billions. Large companies, such as Neste Oyj (market capitalization approx. €10–15 billion), Kone Oyj (approx. €20–25 billion), and UPM-Kymmene Oyj (approx. €15–20 billion), report very comprehensively, but their large market capitalization can “dilute” the relative impact of their reporting in this comparison. Therefore, I will focus on smaller or medium-sized companies with exceptionally strong reporting.

Candidates

  1. Orthex Group Oyj (market capitalization approx. €120–150 million)

    • Reporting: Orthex reports comprehensively on sustainability in connection with its financial statements, focusing particularly on the use of recycled materials, its carbon neutrality target (2030), and its CDP score (A- in 2023). It voluntarily participates in the SPIRIT program and uses GRI standards. (Orthex’s own reports)

    • Scope relative to market capitalization: As a small company, Orthex’s reporting is exceptionally detailed, especially regarding environmental impacts (e.g., recycled plastic content of 50% in certain product categories). This makes it a strong candidate, as its resources for reporting are more limited than those of large companies.

    • Pros: External validation (CDP), voluntary initiatives, and focus on circular economy.

    • Cons: Social responsibility and governance reporting is not as extensive as the environmental aspect.

  2. Valmet Oyj (market capitalization approx. €4–5 billion)

    • Reporting: Valmet is known for its comprehensive sustainability reporting, covering GRI standards, TCFD recommendations, and Science Based Targets commitments. The company reports, for example, on supply chain responsibility, employee well-being, and innovations for reducing emissions.

    • Scope relative to market capitalization: Although Valmet is larger than Orthex, its market capitalization is smaller than, for example, Neste or UPM, but its reporting competes with theirs. Valmet’s focus on technology and services gives it a unique perspective on sustainability.

    • Pros: Broad coverage across all ESG areas, external audits.

    • Cons: Larger market capitalization reduces “relative” impact compared to smaller companies.

  3. Metsä Board Oyj (market capitalization approx. €2–3 billion)

    • Reporting: Metsä Board reports extensively in accordance with GRI standards, focusing particularly on sustainable forest use, carbon neutrality (target 2030), and biodiversity. The company has received recognition from CDP (A-listing for climate and forests).

    • Scope relative to market capitalization: Metsä Board’s market capitalization is medium-sized, but its reporting is almost as comprehensive as that of larger forest industry players (e.g., UPM). This makes it a strong candidate.

    • Pros: Strong focus on biodiversity and external recognitions.

    • Cons: Industry limitations (paper and board) may limit the versatility of reporting.

  4. Kemira Oyj (market capitalization approx. €3–4 billion)

    • Reporting: Kemira reports comprehensively from the perspective of the chemical industry, focusing on water treatment, circular economy, and emission reduction. It uses GRI standards and is committed to the Science Based Targets initiative.

    • Scope relative to market capitalization: Kemira’s reporting is in line with large companies, but its market capitalization is more moderate, which makes its reporting relatively impactful.

    • Pros: Innovative approach in the context of the chemical industry.

    • Cons: Environmental reporting is strong, but social responsibility aspects may be narrower.

Assessment and Recommendation

Although Neste and UPM-Kymmene report very extensively (e.g., Neste has received praise in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index), their large market capitalization makes their reporting less “relatively” impactful in this comparison. Orthex Group Oyj stands out due to its small market capitalization (approx. €120–150 million) and exceptionally comprehensive reporting. Orthex’s CDP score (A-), voluntary initiatives (e.g., the SPIRIT program), and reporting focused on the use of recycled materials demonstrate that it invests significantly in sustainability relative to its size. For example, its reporting on the increasing share of recycled plastic (target 80% by 2030) and its collaboration with Stora Enso on biocomposites is exceptionally detailed for a small company.However, if broader ESG coverage is emphasized, Metsä Board Oyj could be a strong contender, as its reporting uniquely covers biodiversity and forest management, and its market capitalization is still reasonable (€2–3 billion).

Final answer: Orthex Group Oyj likely offers the most comprehensive and extensive sustainability reporting relative to its market capitalization, as despite its small size, its reporting is almost on par with large companies, especially concerning environmental matters.

Notes

  • Lack of precise comparisons: As there is no direct data comparing the reporting of all Helsinki Stock Exchange companies relative to their market capitalization, this is a reasoned estimate. If you want a more detailed analysis, I can delve into the reports of individual companies.

  • Market capitalization fluctuations: Market capitalizations are based on the latest estimates (April 2025), but they may vary.

  • Strength of the Helsinki Stock Exchange: Nasdaq Helsinki companies report well on average, especially in environmental indicators (32/36 companies report emissions and energy consumption).

If you wish, I can dig up more information, for example, on the details of Orthex’s or Metsä Board’s reports, or compare other companies!

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I myself often skip over sustainability reporting, as it is usually somewhat irrelevant information for investment decisions. The stock price might be a somewhat poor indicator for value creation, as so many things affect it. Based on the income statement and forecasts, however, it would seem that value has been created for shareholders over the years and will continue to be created in the future.
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I disagree with that somewhat. The stock price doesn’t lie.

In my opinion, just staring at revenue and EBITDA is foolish - on a general level (case Duell).

Yes, Orthex has faced significant headwinds, an energy crisis/raw material problems, high inflation, and poor consumer confidence/rising interest rates. For such external factors, the company can’t really do much other than navigate through the difficulties - which, in my opinion, it has succeeded in doing well.

Still, in my own stock portfolio, I don’t see that Orthex has created value for shareholders. The IPO price was €6.82. The current price is €5.08, and dividends have trickled in at €0.5/share by the time of writing.

Yes, the business and the bottom line need to start rising for the company to create value for owners. The share price will follow once the company shows that its business, growth, and results can be trusted (When talking about these ‘forecasts’, the can has always been kicked down the road by a year quite a few times). It certainly says something about the relationship between the company and the market when the P/E is ~11 at 25e and the company’s capital returns are significantly better than the average Helsinki company.

I agree with @Don_Jari that for a small Finnish company, Orthex reports on this sustainability issue quite ‘heavily’. Every earnings release has the same old spiel - how many large Finnish companies even do this?

Sustainability is, of course, a great thing, but I don’t believe it reaches consumers on the shelves of Tokmanni or similar stores to the extent that is invested in it.

Awaiting a green Orthex line…

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@N.K Yes, Orthex definitely creates shareholder value, even though the share price has fluctuated over the last couple of years. In a normal market situation, the company generates about 20% return on its equity, which definitely significantly exceeds investors’ average required rate of return. Looking at the share price over a few years tells nothing about value creation, as over that period, changes in multiples and investor psychology affect the share price significantly more than the company’s value creation.
For example, Huhtamäki has created significant shareholder value over 10 years, but the stock price has only increased by +1.74% during that time, because the valuation 10 years ago was, to put it mildly, high.
In contrast, over 40 years, the share price has developed by over +2000%, and with dividends reinvested, significantly more.
When one looks at the share price and especially the total return including dividends, one can see which companies truly create value in the long term.

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Feel free to sign, but it’s not mandatory :backhand_index_pointing_down:

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Coincidence or not, Orthex has an ongoing ESG survey also aimed at investors:
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You can answer the survey here :backhand_index_pointing_down:

Addendum: What bothers me in that survey’s listing is that the only stakeholder options are “investor,” but not “shareholder.” In my opinion, these two stakeholder groups should be distinguished from each other, because an investor can categorically refer to anyone investing in securities, but from the company’s perspective, a shareholder is among the three most important stakeholder groups, in addition to customers and personnel. Perhaps this survey reveals the company’s implicit, unstated attitude towards private investors as shareholders. Because it is not recognized or seen as important, no effort is put into it either.

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If the stakeholder in the stakeholder classification is an investor, then in this context, one can also consider them to be someone investing in or considering investing in the company in question.

An investor can categorically mean anyone investing in securities, just as a customer means anyone’s customer, or staff means anyone’s staff.

The company could certainly show good judgment and explicitly differentiate Orthex’s owners from ordinary investors, which would warm the hearts of both the owner and the small investor.

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The price of oil, and consequently plastic raw material, seems to have dropped by about 15%. Does this change the short-term earnings outlook for the company? However, the largest cost item in operations is raw materials. How quickly do the reduced raw material prices theoretically flow into the company’s results, or do they flow at all?

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