A new investor presentation from March 2025 has been updated on Oroco’s website, showing these NPVs calculated at different copper prices.
There is considerable leverage to the current ~100 million market capitalization, but that value also quickly evaporates if copper drops to the $3 prices seen before summer 2020.
I’m collaborating on this a bit late, but my previous message was commented on with “nothing has changed”. Not so, when it comes to the value of the resource itself and the direct NPV figure, financing, or anything else. In my opinion, it has been clear for a long time that this will someday become a mine. If it’s not considered profitable now, it might be in ten or 30 years, once higher-grade mines have been depleted. The risks would thus have been politics, financing, and time. The recent buzz combined with media visibility indeed reduces at least the political risk, which was already discussed here.
I have been slowly buying more of this with the thought, “if not for me, then for the children.” As a result, the average price has nicely diluted from ~2CAD to 0.85CAD. In a best-case scenario, I’ve considered 30% of the NPV as the redemption price (although it could theoretically be much more) and in realistic speculations, I’ve reached around 3CAD, thinking at the same time, “with good luck, more, with bad luck, only sometime in the future.” AI even managed to speculate close to 100% NPV redemption prices compared to some Asian case where the buyer had an interest in acquiring another mine “next to” theirs to gain synergy by sharing costs and infrastructure, etc. I didn’t write down which project it was, and it’s not comparable here anyway. The main point is that the final price is impossible to even guess with my current knowledge.
The price of copper can probably raise (or lower) the NPV. Without factual basis, I assume that in a deal of this magnitude, the price of copper is not looked at from the spot price, but for example, from the average price of the last 1-3 years and/or according to some forecasts. As a result, Oroco’s table is likely made to look as flattering as possible given the current copper price.
The PEA revealed that Oroco’s ownership stake in the area has already been accounted for in the NPV value (as it should be). The price at which Oroco could acquire the rest of the area is also interesting - is there, for example, an agreement that defines the price for the remainder if it is acquired? Could there be a 15-X percentage point upside compared to the currently speculated potential buyout price (e.g., 3CAD+3x(0.15-0.**) per share)? 
Oroco doesn’t intend to hold onto this plot of land idly for another ten or 30 years. Just running the company costs a few million a year, and there are no other claims. They would have to acquire another area somewhere alongside it and start funding its exploration.
So, all eggs are somewhat in one basket, and work on Santo Tomas has been ongoing since around 2010.
I just mean that there’s a strong intention to see this through with these upcoming drillings and the PFS, not to leave the site under Oroco’s name without any activity.
If funding is secured, it will, by all appearances, be enough to last until the PFS.
It’s a different matter if suitable buyers aren’t found, or if general M&A interest in the sector from majors is negligible. In such a situation, I don’t know what solution they would arrive at, but it’s unlikely the plot of land would remain under Oroco’s name without a mine for much longer.
However, I do see M&A activity inevitably accelerating at some point, and especially with rising copper prices, majors’ coffers will swell, and investments must be made. This is not a significant amount of money for the giants.
Furthermore, for a large major, there are also quite good expansion opportunities, so to speak, for free as a bonus, in the form of Brasiles and other areas of the plot that won’t be drilled now. And Brasiles could extend much further north when someone eventually starts exploring it.
I don’t really see why this wouldn’t be pursued based on the PFS.
IF final funding is secured during Q2, I would personally estimate PFS in 2026 and a sale by 2027 at the latest. Unless something truly interesting comes up in the drillings that is worth further investigation (e.g., SZ-east proves to be a rich area).
IF funding is NOT secured, then nothing much will come of this, and it can be sold to a major for a pittance; let them finish drilling themselves.
But I’m sure it will finally come from somewhere now.
Funding would, of course, have to be secured, and as soon as possible, but apparently the problem is that larger financiers are usually only interested after the PFS. If Oroco were to secure a financier now, the stock might have room to fall if the dilution is significant and the issue price is much lower than the current price, which is likely. I suspect that if a financier is secured, the terms might be a slight disappointment.
More from that Canadian forum/post
Naturally, it’s probably in everyone’s interest that the sooner, the better. Perhaps I wasn’t entirely clear on that, but I was speculating (especially earlier) precisely that if funding wouldn’t be found or potential buyers wouldn’t emerge, then even in the worst case, being left holding the bag would mean a reasonable selling price for one’s own shares only when the project is relevant again.
I don’t believe either that 10 (let alone 30) years would pass in any scenario, but that option has also been on my mind. One could, I suppose, leave that ownership to wait for a better time with minimal costs and hire the staff for another project, another company? But especially after these recent talks, it is even more unlikely that this would be delayed for years, and my own thoughts are again focusing more on what price range per share we will fall into WHEN the sale happens 
Yes, it’s probably good to prepare for something like 350M-370M shares in one’s calculations so there are no disappointments.
But it would still be quite important to get the whole pot at once now so we could get to work properly for a year.
How do you interpret this tweet…
https://x.com/MarioZamoraG/status/1900672729159696892?t=BF_0mhIHe6j1MRUX7AIxdA&s=19
…and Craig’s statement in it: “they made it very clear for us that the capacity for them to finance this project on a ‘go forward basis’ is clearly there”
I interpret it as talking precisely about the next big installment that would cover the drilling. I don’t know if Canaccord (Canaccord) acts only as an intermediary in selling shares or finances itself, etc., but I would still say that we are quite close to the PFS (Pre-Feasibility Study) phase financing.
Well, I guess there’s nothing to do but wait a little longer. It’s been a painfully long time since the last drillings and weekly reports, so one would already long to get back to monitoring the work.
Interpreted precisely and freely translated, I understand that there is a mutual commitment regarding financing; “we’ll do what it takes to get things moving.”
Whether that means financing for one drilling campaign, the entire PFS, or something in between, no one necessarily knows at this stage. The intent has been indicated, and next, perhaps, a concrete plan will be developed from the options on the table? As an expression, “go forward basis” is, in my opinion, a bit vague even in English, and it likely just means that things won’t stall, but financing will be resolved somehow, and the parties will take it upon themselves to handle it
Was this a typo or did I not understand? I personally believe that at least over 50 million more shares will be added, with dilution in the range of 20-30%.
I also take into account that if and when the PFS is published, the calculations may become slightly worse. PEA calculations usually give a slightly more positive picture of the project than a more detailed PFS, which is more conservative/realistic.
Yeah, good thing you said, apparently my very tired Monday brain on a Wednesday didn’t realize what it was writing.
So indeed, it would be good to prepare for 350-370 million shares, I meant. If fully diluted is already around 300M.
I’ll correct the original and hit the sack.
Copper off the tariff list, let’s see how much the price of copper will drop.
Mexico seems to be returning to being a mining country after all. 
And the price of copper doesn’t seem to care much about Trump’s actions yet.
https://www.lme.com/Metals/Non-ferrous/LME-Copper#Summary
In addition, copper availability is a problem as mines are depleted, and majors look years ahead in their acquisitions.
As a bonus, Mexico also received an exemption from Trump’s tariffs; Mexican mining companies can continue their exports to the United States, which helps maintain their competitiveness. So, currently, Trump might have done a favor for Oroco investors.
Apparently, perhaps within 90 days, the project would start progressing, and if I understood correctly, there is interest from larger financiers. Note: If the translator translated it even remotely correctly.
Additionally, the geologist states how Santo Tomas still has room for growth, and the calculations have not taken into account, for example, copper oxides at all, expansion possibilities, etc., and how much easier and more profitable the Santo Tomas project is compared to other big discoveries like Filo Del Sol
Roughly the process now, if it wasn’t already clear:
Approx. 20M CAD is needed for PFS.
Now there is political support and the designation as a critical project, but the wheels might still turn slowly, as people in the process might need a bit of a wake-up call. This, in my opinion, was phrased in a way that there might still be “dinosaurs” who think in the “old way”.
The permit process can take 2 years, so there’s no rush with funding either. So it’s not needed all at once right now.
Did anyone catch what the “urgency” thing was, was there anything eyebrow-raising?
Hopefully, no interpretation went wrong now. This was from the recent video live stream.
Here’s yesterday’s presentation:
And a fresh interview from the new guy
Looks like 10k subscribers is more than Markku has
