Antti Siltanen interviewed Orion’s CFO René Lindell after Q3. 
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:12 Q3 update
01:15 Earnings performance
03:04 Animal Health
03:51 R&D
07:11 Ganaxolone
08:19 Nubeqa milestone payments
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Here is a company report on Orion from Antti right after Q3.
Orion’s Q3 results exceeded our expectations in terms of revenue and earnings. On the other hand, recent setbacks in R&D projects and potential related write-downs also brought some gray clouds to the sky. However, as the most important growth driver, Nubeqa appears to be developing more rapidly than our previous expectations. We are raising our forecasts for Nubeqa sales. Orion also announced that the remaining Nubeqa milestone payments will likely be realized as a single installment in 2026.
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Nordea upgrades its recommendation on 30.10.24: BUY.
”We upgrade our recommendation to Buy (Hold) with a SOTP-based fair value of EUR 52.0. We believe that Nubeqa could be one of the biggest products in
prostate cancer and reach USD 4.3bn in global revenues. This should help Orion reach a CAGR of 9% for 2023-28E and grow its EBIT by 10% for the same period.”
Comment: If Nubeqa sells more than EUR 3bn, the royalty will also increase from 20->25% according to the deal.
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On the impact of the election on Orion and the pharmaceutical industry in general. Still, with the caveat that the gentleman in question is unpredictable and “anything” is possible.
“According to Vaarala, Donald Trump’s election as president will not necessarily bring much new to the hot topics of the US pharmaceutical market. Drug prices have already been a major topic of discussion there anyway in recent years. Republicans and Democrats share a common understanding that federal drug costs should be reduced.”
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The development history of a painkiller that went wrong and consumed tens of millions is shared, which ended last month with poor results in animal testing. Well, fortunately, Orion has other things in its development pipeline.
For the painkiller’s planned main market, the USA, a genuine tinfoil hat is being chosen as Health Secretary, who publicly hopes to get to hammer pharmaceutical companies.
Interesting times ahead😳
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Orion acquires the rights for the further development of two bispecific antibodies and pays a one-time fee of 3.5 million euros to its partner Alligator Bioscience. Alligator apparently had an acute need for funding.
Based on previous press releases, the collaboration that started in 2021 originally involved three bispecific antibodies.
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Here are Siltanen’s comments regarding Orion’s recent press release.
Orion announced on Tuesday that it has agreed on a change to the license agreement with Alligator Bioscience. The license between the companies, which previously included a royalty obligation, will be converted into a perpetual, fully paid-up, and royalty-free license for Orion. The one-time payment for the agreement is 3.5 MEUR, which is small on the scale of the group.
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This news might perhaps be significant. The event itself has certainly been reported clearly - and its minor significance - but one still wonders what the background factors of Orion’s undertaking are? - it’s not a matter of pure amusement or pastime, but rather rational reasons have likely guided that decision. I wonder if it originated from Orion or perhaps from the other party?
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According to a Redeye analyst (content behind login), the buyout primarily reflects Alligator’s difficult financial situation. Cash shortage.
Orion may have thus acquired potentially promising drug candidates at a low price, but time will tell if they amount to anything. 1.75 million euros per acquired candidate does not sound like much.
We have valued the deal with Orion at SEK165m, which is a best estimate since we do not know the distribution of the milestone payments, the royalty rate etc. However, the sales price appears low and, we believe, testifies to a lack of liquidity at Alligator and a difficult financial situation.
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What also caught my eye here was that pain is included and hasn’t been discarded due to the recent research disappointment. Let’s keep an eye on it 
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Here are Antti’s comments on Orion’s recent collaboration.
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Vertex’s NaV1.8 drug suzetrigine received a disappointing result from phase 2:
Vertex’s stock -13% in pre-market trading.
Orion, for its part, stopped developing its own NaV1.8 drug in October.
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Well. It’s a bit surprising now that Vertex has that drug in phase 2, because as far as I know, the company has VX-548 which produced promising results from phase 3, and that was reported a year ago. Or is it that Vertex is developing several NaV1.8-themed molecules in parallel for one reason or another?
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The same drug, different indication, even though it’s about nerve pain. They just rediscovered at the same time that the placebo effect is statistically significant in pain relief. Are they going to test Placebo Forte next? This already casts some kind of shadow on the Phase 3 results, even if they perhaps can’t be dismissed. Said the envious Orion owner. A difficult mechanism of action, apparently, Orion luckily turned off the lights early.
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Thanks for the clarification, i.e., those who studied VX548 for different types of pain. Neuropathic pain is a long-term health problem, and thus the medicine would be for long-term use. For Orion, that distinction into different pain categories didn’t even become relevant before the guillotine cut off the project.
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Here are Antti Siltanen’s comments on how Orion announced it had terminated the marketing and distribution agreement concerning ganaxolone’s European rights.
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Orion posed 
Inside information: Orion improves outlook for 2024 and provides preliminary information on financial performance in 2024
Orion Corporation improves its outlook for 2024 for both net sales and operating profit, as product sales, Nubeqa® royalty income, and excellent supply reliability have continued to drive faster-than-expected net sales growth in the final months of 2024. In connection with the change in the outlook, Orion provides preliminary information on its financial performance in 2024. Based on preliminary, unaudited figures, net sales in 2024 were approximately EUR 1,542 million and operating profit was approximately EUR 417 million.
New outlook and preliminary financial information for 2024, issued 15 January 2025
Net sales are approximately EUR 1,542 million.
Operating profit is approximately EUR 417 million.
Previous outlook for 2024, issued 11 September 2024
Net sales are estimated to be EUR 1,470–1,510 million.
Operating profit is estimated to be EUR 370–400 million.
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What a surprising and impressive positive result! Especially since the ganaxolone write-down brings significant headwinds for Q4.
The turnaround after Q3 was in the right direction when it seemed that Nubeqa was selling at a faster pace than previously expected. But I didn’t quite believe in such strong momentum.
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As a layman, I would ask what the idea is of putting a positive item at 18:25?
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Would the intention be to issue these positive profit warnings after the stock market closes, so that every investor could calmly and equally familiarize themselves with the positive profit warning before the stock price takes off? Now, things didn’t quite go as planned, as Orion already started to surge, and will it continue tomorrow 
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