The collaboration with Swedish Alligator Bioscience to develop new cancer treatments continues. Of course, it is still in the early stages of the development pipeline. No official announcement from Orion yet, at least.
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Luckily I share these on social media, because a moment ago I learned that the origin of this candidate is apparently from China, from where Orion has acquired the rights.
So the original press release is probably this one:
And on the other hand, Vertexâs (quite a stock rocket, by the way :D) VX-548 is already in the FDA application phase.
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Teemu Liila and @Heikki_Keskivali talked about Oriola and Orion. 
Did you know that the discovery of some medicines has been sheer luck? Orion and Oriola in a corporate face-off.
Topics:
00:00 Intro 01:25 Comparison of Oriola and Orion 04:50 Orion 11:05 Oriola 15:34 Valuations 18:35 Which one do Heikki and Teemu choose for their competition portfolios?
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OPâs latest market podcast states that Orion would take a hit if Joe Biden is re-elected in Novemberâs presidential election. He would go after the (over-)pricing of pharmaceutical companies. For example, the US market is important for Nubeqa.
However, the situation is such that Donald Trump has also taken up the hatchet against âBig Pharmaâ. Using different methods than Biden, but he also targets pharmaceutical companies.
Letâs see what follows from this.
Domestic update: the government intends to take âŹ130 million from pharmaceutical companies starting next year. The bill is out for comment.
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I basically agree with these assessments that Orion is a buy/add stock. But the other question is, at what price is it worth buying? Average target prices are around the âŹ40 mark, and according to Inderesâ discounted cash flow model (DCF), the equity value per share is âŹ43.3.
Today, Orion B costs well over âŹ40/share, so is it starting to be fully priced?
Antti Viljakainen: Hold. A portfolio staple. The medium-term potential for Nubeqa and Easyhaler is promising.
Tero Wesanko: Buy. A solid start to the year and a slight guidance upgrade. Strong balance sheet and stable cash flow, a good dividend payer. The stock of this quality company is still at its turn-of-the-year levels.
Jarkko Aho: Add. A defensive company generating steady cash flow with a strong balance sheet. With Nubeqa, growth is also expected, relative to which the valuation is quite moderate.
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Orion 
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Here is a company report on Orion from Antti. 
Orion and MSD have exercised an option that grants MSD global exclusive rights to a drug candidate for the treatment of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. For Orion, the exercise of the option means a EUR 60 million impact on revenue and earnings for Q3. The company also spoke about long-term revenues that may materialize if the candidateâs development progresses favorably. In our estimation, these revenues would mainly occur in the 2030s. At the same time, Orion also moderately raised its revenue and earnings guidance range for the current year, citing strong sales performance. We are raising our target price to EUR 44 (prev. 42) following the positive news and reiterate our Add recommendation.
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Not of the highest significance, but still positive news. Mainly, it reinforces previously issued sales forecasts for Nubeqa.
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Orion: Expectedly favorable trial results a step toward expanding darolutamideâs indication
We had to slightly clarify the text in the morning report. Local regulatory authorities will, of course, make their own assessments based on the scientific results now presented, so in that regard, the expansion of the indication is not yet 100% certain before regulatory approvals. In our view, these trial results provide a favorable basis for seeking regulatory approvals.
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Anttiâs preview comments regarding Thursdayâs Q2 report release.
Orion will release its Q2 report on Thursday, August 8 at 12:00. Regarding revenue, we expect 12% growth supported by the prostate cancer drug Nubeqa and the Easyhaler product family. We expect operating profit to grow by 33% from a weak comparison period. The earnings improvement is driven by sales growth of high-margin Nubeqa and the Easyhaler product family, as well as the recovery of animal health sales as the inventory cycle normalizes.
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Orionâs interim report today at 12:00. Below is a screenshot from Bayerâs brand-new interim report regarding Nubeqaâs sales development: 90%. Anything other than impressive figures would have been a surpriseâŠ
Even though the next few years look strong for Nubeqa and Easyhaler, the most interesting part of the report remains the R&D pipeline, which is crucial for long-term prospects. This pipeline has produced successful products recently, but it must be remembered that the company went through a phase lasting many years without significant new drugs. As is well known, pharmaceutical companies rise â or fall flat â in the wake of their research innovations.
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orion-puolivuosikatsaus-2024.pdf (520.2 KB)
Orion deliversđ. Raising its guidance
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Didnât Orion just reiterate the guidance issued on 1 July 2024? Meaning, it reiterated this:
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True, thatâs right. I just didnât remember that announcement that came out during the holiday.
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Meeting the guidance requires a pretty strong end to the year.
Here is Liisaâs interview regarding Q2.
Topics with timestamps:
00:00 Q2 in a nutshell
01:10 Animal health
01:46 ARANOTE III
03:50 Bayer sales
05:11 Entacapone rights
06:40 Option with MSD
09:10 Positive profit warning and strategy progress
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Hi Sergio, without commenting further on your table or its figures, our current guidance can be found here: NÀkymÀt ja lÀhiajan riskit
In the basis for the outlook, we state that the outlook includes a EUR 60 million item for Q3, which we will release from the balance sheet into net sales and operating profit as a result of the exercise of the option in the MSD agreement. Additionally, the outlook assumes that a EUR 70 million milestone payment related to Nubeqa sales will be received in H2. So, if the milestone payment is received as assumed, these two items alone will increase net sales and operating profit by 130 million euros in H2.
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Thanks for the clarifications. My intention wasnât to question the guidance, I was just noting what achieving it requires for the remainder of the year. I believe it is very much achievable.
My apologies. It seems I had outdated EBIT guidance. Here it is corrected using the averages of the revenue and EBIT guidance.
Looking good!
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