Yeah, and since inventory was increased, the costs were not far from neutral.
That is what they said and have always said. Or roughly speaking. I believe the 6-18 months referred to the lead time of the sales process until a contract is finally signed. Now, as reported, a record number of these were made in Q1, and they should specifically start improving the bottom line by ticking along from Q2 onwards and improving cash flows. There should also be enough stock available to fulfill deliveries.
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Personally, I understood that after the sales process, the camera is available for the customerâs use after integrations etc. in about 6-18 months. Now, of course, it helps that the warehouse is full, so thereâs no need to wait for the camera to be manufactured. Iâm happy to be wrong about this, and I probably am, but this is how I understood the matter.
Personally, I think that if Himberg continues after the Annual General Meeting, he still has the boardâs confidence and a sense of direction. He isnât exactly a great communicator or someone who riles up the crowd, but if he keeps his word, there wonât be a profit warning and growth will continueâeventually, SAAS revenues will push Optomed to the surface and things should ease up. Heaven knows whenâŚ
Letâs seeâIâll add more after the meeting with the same amount I gained when I sold the day before Q1.
Risks are at their peak, but then again, the excitement/risk itself acts as a stimulantâŚ
Integrations are Optomedâs biggest growth bottleneck in the short term, but their greatest competitive advantage in the long term: connecting to existing systems slows down implementation, pilots get delayed, and hospital IT departments may already be overloaded. However, at the same time, these implementations create a competitive moat, meaning a competitor cannot enter the market simply by offering a cheaper solution.
Gemini suggests the following integrations:
⢠EHR Integration (Electronic Health Record): Images and AI results must transfer automatically to the patientâs record (e.g., Epic, Cerner). If the nurse has to enter data manually, the risk of error increases and the process slows down.
⢠Billing Integration: The system must automatically add the CPT 92229 code to the visit.
⢠PACS/DICOM Archiving: Images must be stored in the hospitalâs official imaging archive as medical documentation.
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It seems like the interviewer and the interviewee might have been talking at cross purposes? Himberg later justified the length of the process like that. So, in that context, we are specifically talking about the process before the purchase.
The last time Himberg spoke about billing starting when the camera is delivered to the customer was in the Inderes Q4 interview video at around the 17:30 mark; you can go listen for yourself and make your own interpretations 
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This topic has come up here a few times now.
In January, Aeye Health announced the automatic integration of Aurora Aeye into the Epic system. When a hospital adopts Aurora Aeye, it can be connected to the hospitalâs system at the push of a button. Everything is then handled automatically, meaning the entire process related to the imaging. It has been stated that Epic is the most commonly used system.
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Itâs refreshing when someone goes against the mainstream view. But in those cases, one must obviously challenge it and ask for justifications.
Because the most important things are progressing there anyway
What are these things?
How are they progressing?
Personally, I have a rather black-and-white mindset nowadays when it comes to âthings progressing.â If there is no clear plan, schedule, etc., presented regarding the progress, then I consider it just empty talk.
additionally, a defensive business in a conservative industry.
The entire pharmaceutical business is perceived as defensive, so how specifically does Optomed stand out from the rest of the crowd?
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Good, I recall writing about this myself.
- For Optomed, this means a decrease in sales costs, as the solution is already Epic-integrated and easier to sell.
- Aeye Health can manage the software platform and collect data; they own the Epic marketplace presence.
- The Clinic/PCP receives financial benefits: specifically, a fee of USD 1,500/month against an incoming revenue stream from Medicare of USD 50/image â 100 * USD 50 = USD 5,000/month - USD 1,500 service fee.
- The business case for the Clinic would be USD 3,500 profit/month, assuming that imaging is so fast that it requires no additional resources.
- In addition to this, quality bonuses are apparently paid in the USA when a clinic increases its screening rate using Optomed. The annual bonus is said to be significantly larger than this monthly revenue.
It would be great to get market information at a concrete level. In marketing materials, everything is easy, smooth, and profitable.
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The results have been chewed over, time to look ahead. From the interview, what stuck in my mind was Himpula saying that Aeye Health is the largest and fastest-growing (FDA-approved) AI solution provider. Digital Diagnostics (LumineticsCore) already stated in 2024 that their solution is in use at 600 sites. Based on this, Aeyeâs AI should already be in use at at least a thousand locations (either tabletop camera or Aurora).
https://www.mmm-online.com/home/channel/ai-eye-exams-prove-their-worth-future-tech/
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An article in the Retinal Physician publication about AI diagnosis of retinopathy. It is worth reading at least the conclusion section.
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You certainly are trying hard to find something positive in this situation. Could you explain it to me in plain English why the company supposedly couldnât disclose the quantities without revealing the customers?
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Unfortunately, the only thing I remember from the interview was Himpulaâs amusing delivery. He spoke uncertainly, giving messy explanations after explanations. At least he didnât blame it on piloting anymore⌠Growing strongly â -30% on the board. If the old business continues to erode at this rate, a new share issue is coming soon. That, in turn, will dilute the share price to penny levels.
Himpula already 2 years ago: âNOW ITâS TAKING OFFâ
Since then, heâs had as many big customers in his pocket as there are fingers and toes, supposedly ordering tens or hundreds of devices. -30% on the board.
This is such a Bioretec case. A top product for which there is no huge market or demand existing.
And it could be that Bioretec and Optomed are just ahead of their time. Unfortunately, that doesnât make current owners smile when the stock has time to be diluted before the breakthrough happens.
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Admittedly, this has been a bit like hitting âunexpectedâ walls all the time. Partly due to our own blunders and partly due to factors beyond our control. Q1 showed how strongly the bottom line is affected when two negative things happen simultaneously, both of which are largely independent of the company itself: the seasonal slowdown in Q1 and the brakes being put on acquisitions because of uncertainty surrounding reimburseability and CMS.
Furthermore, as we know, the software businessâour core cash cowâhas deteriorated significantly.
In my opinion, this looks like a scenario where the only way is up. The share price should reflect the situation 12 months ahead, and I certainly donât see the future being this bleak. Of course, this is just my own opinion and assessment.
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That $3k USD for Optomed could very well be accurate. Low volumes and the fact that the OEM manufacturer takes their own margins play into it. Iâm mainly wondering what the components cost, as volume largely determines how much margin is added on top of that.
One of the most amusing explanations from Himberg has been the exchange rates and the cost of hedging against them. Lately, the interest rate differential between the USD and the Euro has been so small that currency hedging practically doesnât cost much at all⌠The entire companyâs communications and situational analyses are nothing but empty talkâŚ
I was planning to attend tomorrowâs AGM, but I donât think I can be bothered to listen to the same story all over again.
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I liked your text. And many othersâ texts as well.
Having watched the video, I got the feeling that Juha tries to ask tough questions, but a proper grilling was somehow missing. One understands, of course, that Inderes has an interest in keeping its client, i.e., Optomed, paying for the analysis. In my opinion, the totality of Himbergâs answers this time was quite vague, and I donât think proper answers were given to important questions. The whole interview felt like beating around the bush (I still need to listen to it again).
Himberg has probably promised/implied on several occasions that the cash position would last through a certain transition phase. How has that actually played out over the years (subject to verification). The cash is supposed to last until cash flow neutrality again, right?
Collective disappointment has been gradually driven by 1) management passivity and the lack of âskin in the gameâ (insiders arenât buying even though there might have been opportunities at times; Kopsala sold heavily back in the day), 2) recurring âsurprisesâ and âobstacles,â and 3) the vagueness of communication. Perhaps most of all, the vagueness of communication (points 1 and 2 can be justified somehow).
Obstacles arise, sales processes are slow, they are acting as a âpioneer,â insiders cannot (or wonât, even if they could?) buy shares for various reasons, and due to agreements made with AEYE Health and âBig Pharmaâ etc., and inside information (MNPI), things cannot be communicated externally. Surely communication and trust could be improved in some other way?
Perhaps it would be nice to hear something from Himberg or other Optomed staff about various conferences etc., or maybe a comparison to competitors, or even all the different things the device could be used for. Searching for all this information seems to be the responsibility of active forum members now. Communication feels more reactive (answering only what is mandatory) rather than proactive (building trust by talking about the market etc., cf. e.g., Admicom).
The product itself feels incredibly good, but even my own trust in the CEO and the company otherwise is starting to fade after many years. For the retail investor, the company has long been a âguessing gameâ where managementâs optimistic words and the reported numbers do not meet.
Whether recurring revenue actually starts rolling, or if this year becomes another year of dilution with share issues, we remain eagerly waiting as bagholders.
Best regards, vilpukkaulpukka
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We are certainly in a situation now where communication needs to start working, or we need to see a clear improvement in the numbers during the next quarter. Otherwise, talk is just talk, and there simply isnât any trust in those words anymore. Of course, we can also wait in suspense to see what is said at todayâs Annual General Meeting, or if anything is said at all.
Personally, Iâm hanging on half-forced; Iâm down so much (heavy âturskaâ) that I just canât sell. Time will tell if the whole investment was a total loss or if some miracle can be pulled off. Iâm hoping for the latter.
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Is it really the case that they charge a $40 per-procedure fee in addition to the monthly fee? Apparently, this is related to the data being in a cloud portal and wanting usage-based revenue to cover costs?
Prices for eye exams in the US are not high, and Medicare reimburses $40 per session. If the average price without insurance is $135 and maybe a maximum of $50 extra can be charged for AI imaging, thatâs roughly $200 total per visit as a customer fee.
Iâm just thinking, two âpoorâ companies are running the businessâletâs hope they donât ruin the whole thing with excessive greed. Even if thereâs no competition, you first need to penetrate the market properly; scale is what brings the money into the house and builds that famous moat. If they donât get thousands of devices onto the market, thereâs no benefit to having been the first AI-approved solution for years once a competitor catches up.
A couple of points from the interview:
Optomed is focusing on support in the US, while the partner handles sales. Probably quite smart, but CAPEX deals still seem to be the most profitable thing in the near term.
Regarding China, it grated on my ears when he said itâs not âtheir thingâ but the joint ventureâs. It sounded like he wasnât on top of it at allâsales will happen if they happen.
If someone could really squeeze some info out of the Annual General Meeting regarding these monthly billings and ChinaâŚ
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Do we know how much commission the sales partner takes when selling a monthly-billed product? Is it the first yearâs fees? What are the partnerâs key performance indicators?
Himberg was surprisingly straightforward in stating that the bottom line of the income statement will strengthen during the end of the year, so there must be a strong conviction regarding the devices delivered to the field, which will change the revenue stream going forward.
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