Here are some more thoughts regarding the development of the loan portfolio.
First of all, pricing power is not the same as competitive advantage. Pricing power can be found in the banking sector in areas where other banks are not interested in operating. This can be due to excessively high collateral risks, as well as lower growth potential, the latter of which would be an acceptable reason for OmaSp to operate in these areas.
Turning the loan portfolio into profitable growth is not an easy trick for OmaSp. A riskier loan portfolio slowly melts away either through write-downs or repayments. This needs to be compensated somehow, otherwise the loan portfolio and revenues will continue to decline. However, the current market share is low, so I do not consider this impossible by any means. One can also think of it as needing to grow market share in good quality loans just to keep the business standing still. The old portfolio does not melt away instantly, of course, as corporate liabilities also have maturities of several years.
Reasonable business can be found in surrounding municipalities where there is little local competition and some customers are possibly willing to pay for the service. Currently, it is impossible to say what proportion of loans are of poor quality and what are not. For example, it is unlikely that there are significant risk concentrations in residential mortgages in Lieto. The loan risk can also be higher if a higher margin more than compensates for it. Of course, lending to targets whose collateral value approaches zero is not sensible banking. However, Finland still likely has areas where competition and bank presence are low and housing price development is reasonable. I cannot say this for sure, of course, and at the very least, the size of the potential market is limited. Something must be figured out, however, as competition in the Helsinki metropolitan area with a higher cost structure and lower margins is not an economically viable equation. All this inevitably leads to growth remaining moderate in the future and clearly lower than historical figures. At the same time, profitability will be clearly more modest than before.
The best scenario, of course, would be that the provisions made now are too cautious and the actual risk level of the portfolio turns out to be lower than feared. In this case, the bank could return to better profitability relatively quickly and continue lending almost as before (minus abuses and other excesses). The probability of this option has significantly decreased in my eyes recently.
In addition, successes in wealth management would help turn revenues back to growth.
In any case, assessing the development of OmaSp’s revenue streams is now very challenging. OmaSp thus lacks the key good characteristics of a bank stock: stability and predictability.




