Oil prices fell as Trump announced extensive tariffs on major trading partners, raising concerns about a slowdown in the global economy and weakening oil demand.
For example, WTI oil futures fell to $70. According to an analyst, economic slowdowns directly affect oil consumption.
"US gasoline futures ended the session at the highest level since August, lifted by the approach of peak summer driving demand."
Oil prices plunged the most since July 2022, as Trump’s tariff policy and OPEC+'s surprising production increase further weighed on markets.
Tariffs against China and India sparked fears of a global recession, and at the same time, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day, adding to oversupply. This combination eroded confidence in oil markets.
“We think this is to replace barrels lost from tighter U.S. sanctions on Iran, and, possibly, also lower expectations than just recently of a Ukraine ceasefire and related western sanctions relief,” Henning Gloystein, head of energy and climate at consultants Eurasia Group, said of the OPEC+ hike.
Here’s SalkunRakentaja’s story about the latest news on oil, readable in under a couple of minutes. 
“We understand that this negatively impacts trade, economic growth, and thus also the growth in oil demand. However, the extent of the impacts is still uncertain and will become clear over time,” SEB’s chief analyst Bjarne Schieldrop commented to news agency Reuters.
The price of US crude oil fell below $60 a barrel to its lowest level since 2021. The reason is concerns about a recession caused by President Trump’s tariffs. JPMorgan raised the recession risk to 60 percent.
Worries are mounting that tariffs could lead to higher prices for businesses, which could lead to a slowdown in economic activity that would ultimately hurt demand for oil.
Thanks Mr. Trump and other partners. Yesterday I grabbed the first batch of Petrobras for my portfolio at just over $12. I already own a hefty pile of Shell from spring 2020 onwards, but now I’m really thinking of buying Petrobras with a fair weight to churn out dividends.
The current challenges in the oil supply/demand situation are known, but my gaze is a bit further ahead.
It is indeed one of the most interesting producers on many levels. Can you say what Petrobras’s breakeven price for oil is, or how have you analyzed Petrobras’s competitiveness in relation to other producers?
I understand that in offshore, Petrobras is one of the most cost-effective, but how does it compare to onshore? Drilling is cheaper in the Middle East, but Russia and at least shale oil are probably beaten. Petrobras also seems to be drilling very deep nowadays; how much does this raise Petrobras’s average breakeven if it becomes widespread? Or can they do this cheaply too?
I couldn’t directly spot sensitivities to oil prices in Petrobras’ Q4 2024 reports, but our friend Sven Carlin just went through the company in his video and highlighted the breakeven point, sensitivity to oil prices, and a possible dividend cut if oil prices remain low. I don’t know which report those pages seen in the video are from, but it gave some insight.
I haven’t invested in Petrobras, even though it’s been on my radar for a long time. If we actually get a recession, then hopefully higher-quality oil companies will be on sale.
In a couple of relatively recent articles from earlier this year, the break-even level of $45 was highlighted. There is competitiveness, and a significant investment pipeline is underway, which aims to further increase production considerably by the end of the decade.
According to the article below, Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are better prepared for the effects of US tariff policy than others.
However, a drop in oil prices could weaken the budgets and investment plans of these oil-revenue-dependent countries. GCC countries own a third of the world’s oil reserves, and although exports to the United States are minimal, low oil prices are their biggest economic risk.
"Key Points
The Bloomberg article below reports how U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright predicts energy prices will fall over the next four years during the Trump administration compared to the previous term.
Wright emphasized that removing barriers to investment and infrastructure construction would lower energy production costs; additionally, the United States and Saudi Arabia are cooperating in nuclear power development and are seeking an agreement that would limit China’s role in the project.
OPEC has lowered its oil demand forecast for 2025 and 2026, citing uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariff policy.
At the same time, some OPEC+ countries plan to increase their production starting in May, which has increased downward pressure on prices in the oil markets despite weaker-than-expected demand.
"Key Points
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/14/opec-cuts-oil-demand-forecast-on-trump-trade-war.html
The IEA has lowered its oil demand forecasts for 2025 due to the trade war and predicts an oversupply for 2026.
Demand is growing slowly as electric cars become more common and economic outlooks weaken. Supply will still remain sufficient.
The article below is not behind a paywall.
If it’s alright, I’ll post Transocean Ltd.'s results here. It’s a drilling company operating in the oil sector. 
Transocean’s start to 2025 was stable.
The company recorded a net loss of $79 million, which translated to a loss of $0.11 per share, but according to CEO Jeremy Thigpen, the quarter was strong overall; adjusted EBITDA rose to $244 million and revenue to $906 million. Debt was simultaneously reduced by $210 million.
While economic uncertainty and fluctuations in raw material prices have brought challenges to the market, Transocean believes in its strong position. The company continues its strong operational performance and is actively discussing future projects with clients.
The article below explains how, despite Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” policy, oil and drilling companies have suffered at the beginning of his term.
Falling oil prices, recession fears, and trade tariffs have slowed down investments. There is uncertainty in the industry, and North American drilling activity, in particular, is sensitive to price fluctuations.
The outlook could still worsen.
"Key Points
Here’s SalkunRakentaja’s article about oil plunges.
In addition, markets are nervous about the possibility of a recession. Many investors now believe that tightening trade policies could push the global economy into recession this year, which would further weaken oil demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has indeed lowered its 2025 oil demand growth forecast, citing tightening trade wars and weakening economic prospects as reasons.
Oil prices in the United States fell sharply after OPEC+ announced a significant increase in production in June. The increase in supply and Donald Trump’s tariffs have fueled recession fears, which are also weighing on demand prospects. The weak price environment is now otherwise curbing investments in oil exploration and production.
"Key Points
I thought this article about the giant company Aramco would interest those following it, so I posted it here.
The article states that Saudi Aramco’s first-quarter profit decreased by about 5 percent from a year ago due to weakening oil prices and demand. Net income was 26 billion dollars.
The company sharply cut its spending-linked dividend, so by this measure, things didn’t go well either. The decline in oil prices also burdens Saudi Arabia’s national economy, increasing, among other things, deficits and borrowing.
Petrobras also shared its latest first-quarter updates today
What kind of experiences do people here have with Equinor as an investment? Very little information was found on the forum about this fairly generous dividend payer.
The article below tells how oil prices fell significantly when Trump said the United States was close to a nuclear deal with Iran. Iran’s leadership has also expressed willingness to a deal, provided economic sanctions are lifted. A deal could increase Iran’s oil exports, which would then push down prices.
