@christoffer.jennel has given his preliminary comments as NYAB publishes its Q3 report next Wednesday.
We expect revenue growth to remain strong, driven by both inorganic additions and continued high organic growth, supported by a strong order book and favorable market conditions, especially in Sweden. Additionally, we expect operating profit margins to be broadly in line with last yearâs pro forma level, as rapid growth is expected to slightly weigh on profitability in the short term as personnel capacity increases. Given the recent large orders in the Finnish energy sector (read our comments here), we are looking for comments that confirm a possible improvement in market conditions in Finland, as well as that the activity level in Sweden remains high, and updates on the progress of Dovreâs integration. We will also pay special attention to the groupâs profitability development.
Analyst Christofferâs initial thoughts on NYABâs Q3 report.
âNYABâs Q3 revenue was in line with our estimate, but reported EBIT was lower. Organic revenue growth was primarily driven by high production activity in Sweden, while volumes in Finland were lower due to timing effects in the project portfolio. The order book remains at a high level, supporting continued strong growthâ.
Here are Christofferâs comments in Finnish.
(Christofferâs comments in English below)
NYABâs Q3 revenue met our forecasts, but reported operating profit fell short of expectations. Organic revenue growth was mainly due to busy production in Sweden, while volumes in Finland were lower due to timing-related reasons concerning the project portfolio. The order book remained strong, thus supporting robust growth, but the lower number of new orders during the quarter led to a weakening of the order-to-bill ratio. Dovreâs integration is progressing well, especially regarding margins, and managementâs comments do not indicate significant changes in market outlook.
Here is a new company report on NYAB from Jenneli.
NYABâs Q3 revenue was in line with our forecast, but operating profit fell short of expectations due to a greater impact from increasing capacity in H1â25. Market conditions in Sweden remained favorable, while demand in Finland remained subdued during the current quarter, but the outlook is improving. Q3 order intake was soft, which, together with the slowdown in order book growth, suggests a moderation in growth in the coming quarters according to our assessment. As our revenue forecasts already reflect this, we largely keep them unchanged. However, we have cut our near-term profitability assumptions, as we now expect the utilization rate of the expanded workforce to normalize slower than we previously assumed. Based on our updated forecasts, we see the post-earnings share price decline as an attractive buying opportunity, and we believe the stock has attractive risk-adjusted upside potential, supported by projected earnings growth in the coming years and higher justified valuation multiples. We raise our recommendation to Buy (previously Add) and lower our target price to SEK 7.90 (previously SEK 8.25) based on updated forecasts.
NYAB Strengthens Its Position in Swedish Grid Expansion
NYAB announced that they have signed a cooperation agreement with Svenska kraftnÀt for the construction of a new 400 kV power line of approximately 100 kilometers between Letsi and Svartbyn in Norrbotten. The project will be carried out in two phases. The now signed agreement covers phase 1, which includes planning and design. Phase 2, the significantly larger construction and commissioning phase, is planned to commence during Q1 2026 and conclude during Q4 2028.
Christoffer has written about NYABâs new contract.
NYAB announced on Thursday that it had signed an agreement with the Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket) for the modernization of railways in Dalarna, Sweden. The contract is valued at approximately SEK 380 million (EUR 35 million) and includes the renewal of tracks on the Tillberga-KolbÀck and Valskog-Frövi sections. The project covers approximately 62 kilometers of railway and includes sleeper cleaning, installation of new level crossings, and improved safety. Completion is scheduled for September 2026.
I have a question about NYAB. It is being removed from the Nasdaq First North 25 index, which, for example, might affect its market visibility etc.â What happens in practice, and how does it affect, for example, trading on Nordnet?
Hi @hermoheikko69, thanks for the question and Happy New Year!
The fact that NYAB is being removed from the Nasdaq First North 25 index (starting January 2, 2026) does not mean that the stock will be harder to trade or similar; it just means that it is no longer included in that specific index, which may result in marginally lower index-related visibility and some short-term volume impact as index funds adjust their holdings. In practice, however, trading on Nordnet is not affected at all, and the stock is traded as usual.
The background to this is that NYAB is preparing for a listing change to the Nasdaq Stockholm main market (expected to take place during Q1 2026), which in the long run often means better institutional visibility, higher liquidity, and a broader investor base. The index exit is therefore more of a technical consequence of the listing change than negative news.
Christoffer has written his commentary as NYAB signed a new railway contract in Sweden.
NYAB announced on Friday that it has signed an agreement with the Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket) for the modernization of the Silverhöjden railway line between StÀlldalen and GrÀngesberg. The contract value is approximately 238 MSEK (22 MEUR), and it includes large-scale track renewal over a 17.5-kilometer section, the renewal of switches, as well as drainage and bridge improvements. Construction is scheduled to begin in April 2026 and be completed in November of the same year.
Here are Christofferâs comments on NYABâs small acquisition.
NYAB announced on Friday that its subsidiary NYAB Finland Oy has signed an agreement to acquire the infrastructure business of TerraWise Oy. The acquisition is NYABâs first in the Helsinki metropolitan area and is in line with the companyâs strategy to expand into markets characterized by robust long-term investment activity. While the move is strategically sound, its modest scale suggests a limited immediate impact on NYABâs group figures and our forecasts.
Here are Christofferâs preview comments as NYAB reports its results on Thursday, February 12th.
We expect the company to report strong revenue growth, driven by continued high activity in the Swedish market and the full-quarter contribution from the Consulting segment. We expect EBITDA margins to remain under slight pressure due to the lingering effects of the front-loaded capacity expansion carried out in the first half of 2025, but relatively stable compared to the previous quarter. Key focus areas of the report include the market outlook for 2026, order book development following recent major contract wins, comments on the latest bolt-on acquisition, and seasonal release of working capital.
Christofferâs comments on NYAB agreeing to the sale of its North American Dovre units to Teal Recruitment.
NYAB announced on Monday that it has signed an agreement to sell its North American subsidiaries belonging to the Dovre business to Teal Recruitment, a Canadian staffing solutions provider. The transaction includes a 100 percent stake in the shares of Dovre Canada Limited and Dovre Group Inc. (USA). The divestment is expected to be completed during the first quarter of 2026. The divestment will not lead to immediate changes in our current forecasts, and we will review these in connection with the companyâs Q4 report on Thursday, February 12.
Christofferâs quick comments on NYABâs morning results.
NYABâs Q4 revenue was in line with our forecast, while operating profit exceeded our forecast. Organic revenue growth was primarily driven by high production in Sweden and the full-quarter contribution from the Consulting segment. Profitability benefited from improved project execution and the faster-than-expected integration of the expanded workforce. The order backlog remains at a high level following recent major contract wins, and managementâs comments do not suggest significant changes to the market outlook for 2026. Cash flow was also seasonally strong, supporting the companyâs financial flexibility. The Board of Directors proposes a dividend of EUR 0.014 per share for 2026 (dividend yield 2.3%). NYAB announced yesterday after the market close that the company has postponed its planned listing transfer to the Nasdaq Stockholm main market, which was previously expected to take place during the first quarter of 2026. The Board has not yet confirmed a new schedule for the transfer.
And here are Christofferâs more comprehensive comments in the form of a company report.
NYABâs Q4 revenue was in line with our forecast, while operating profit exceeded our expectations. According to management comments, the utilization rate of the expanded workforce has normalized faster than we expected. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect growth to moderate from the very high levels of 2025, as NYAB faces tougher comparison figures as well as a sequentially declining, albeit still high, order backlog and a book-to-bill ratio that remained below 1x in Q4. However, we see good conditions for profitability improvement as the expanded workforce is further integrated into the project portfolio. The broader market outlook remains mixed, with continued strength in Sweden contrasted by ongoing caution in Finland. At the same time, we believe that recent major contract wins provide strong visibility for our 2026 revenue forecasts. Following the Q4 report, we have slightly raised our near-term margin assumptions while keeping our revenue forecasts unchanged. We maintain our Buy recommendation and raise our target price to SEK 8.0 (from SEK 7.9) due to the upgraded earnings forecasts.
