On the other hand, it’s unknown if there are any plans to start even domestic transports in Finland sometime. But precisely the availability of rolling stock is a problem. Although VR has, of course, been made to sell its old rolling stock now. And would North Rail, with its current rolling stock, still have much extra capacity, at least not enough to start handling any new large logistics within Finland. Considering those days when, of the 9 line locomotives, 4 are tied up between Kotka-Vainikkala, one in Siilinjärvi/Harjavalta, and one in Uusikaupunki logistics, and now one locomotive at a time is serviced in Hyvinkää, and one was needed for shunting work in Vainikkala at times… Of course, some small additional capacity could come if it were otherwise possible and perhaps close to where other traffic goes.
Of course, such a gauge-changing wagon could be a good solution for Nurminen’s Haparanda-Gothenburg train’s onward connection from Finland, if there were a customer for whom the tracks go to the factory and it would be a cost-effective solution.
This is certainly true, even though their current business operations suggest that there is some agreement with the Russians, where they only handle transports benefiting Russia.
Flags at half-mast. Negative news is emerging from Baltic and Central European transports.
Baltic revenue last year was €55.3M, and with an estimated revenue of approx. €120M, 25% of Baltic revenue would be €30M this year. In H1’25, Baltic revenue was €18.9M. Revenue in the Baltics is coming down.
Aapelikin has given his own comment on Nurminen’s negative profit warning.
Nurminen Logistics lowered its earnings guidance for the current year yesterday, while the revenue guidance remained unchanged. The profit warning was a clear negative surprise for us, as we had expected the company to achieve significant earnings growth, which means we see downward pressure on at least our current year’s forecasts. We will review our forecasts and our view of the company in more detail in connection with the Q3 report to be published on Thursday.
Nurminen Logistics is launching direct rail transports between Parma and Sweden, strengthening its position in the European markets. The new connection offers customers an efficient and low-emission alternative to road transports.
The Finnish logistics company, Nurminen Logistics, is strengthening its European rail operations by opening a new direct connection between Parma, Italy, and Sweden. This new route complements the company’s existing rail service between Modena and Sweden, offering customers even more flexibility and options for their logistics needs. To support this expansion and strengthen customer relationships, Nurminen will also open an office in Parma.
The route runs between Parma and Sweden and connects to Nurminen Logistics’ wholly-owned terminal outside Örebro. This enables Nurminen to control the entire logistics chain and ensure reliable deliveries. Located in the logistics hub of Northern Italy, Parma connects the country’s significant industrial areas to Central and Northern Europe, serving as a strategic gateway for northbound traffic. The service will launch next year in week 6 with scheduled, weekly departures and a fast three-day transit time.
Here’s the interim report. Interesting comments from Baltia regarding Kazakhstan’s metals, which can be tracked going forward.
The decrease in market volumes was influenced by temporary export restrictions on certain metals transported from Kazakhstan, as well as uncertainty caused by trade wars, to which metal markets reacted quickly. As a result, revenue decreased during the review period to 6.1 million euros (9.4), and consequently, profitability also declined. However, we were able to maintain relative profitability at a good level due to low fixed costs. The export restrictions are expected to be lifted by the end of the year.
This was already reported in July:
Kazakhstan plans to introduce a temporary ban on the export of non-ferrous metals by all modes of transport until Dec. 31, 2025, the press service of the Kazakh prime minister said in a statement Friday.
The ban applies to unprocessed copper, aluminum slabs and billets, and lead ingots.
Separately, Kazakhstan also extended its ban on the export of ferrous and non-ferrous scrap metal for six months, effective in April 2025.
If you remove the Q3/24 one-off item and compare it to that. In my opinion, the company is still in good shape. Or maybe I’m too fond of railways, and I can’t see the forest for the trees.
But there’s an explanation for everything, which is good. Red flags (i.e., warning, not revolution) appear in situations where there’s no explanation for things.
Here is a new company report on Nurminen from Aapeli.
We reiterate our Add recommendation for Nurminen Logistics, but lower our target price to 1.1 euros (1.2 €). The company’s Q3 figures unsurprisingly fell quite clearly short of our expectations, reflecting the profit warning issued earlier in the week. The weaker-than-expected development was influenced by the Baltic operations and, in our assessment, the subdued development of international rail logistics. However, in relation to revenue development, the company’s margin level development was encouraging in our opinion. Reflecting the profit warning and the current market situation, our forecasts for the coming years decreased significantly, but with the share price decline, we see the stock’s valuation picture for the coming years as attractive.
OP analyst Joona Harjama shared his thoughts on Nurminen’s Q3.
In the video, analyst Joona Harjama thoroughly reviews Nurminen Logistics’ surprising profit warning from the beginning of the week and the Q3 results published at the end of the week. The Q3 report particularly highlighted the weakening of revenue and profitability, as well as challenges in the Baltic business. However, stable development and a slight strengthening of margins are expected for the rest of the year. In the long term, the company is seen to have good growth opportunities, provided that the economic situation and logistics demand recover.
October was a record month for North Rail in terms of train numbers, at least according to my own calculations.
In addition, a couple of days ago, an exceptional train ran from Kotka to Hamina, which had not run before. I did not add that particular train to this table.
As a third point, covered wagons like these have been seen on North Rail trains. This particular photo is from September. Could these be forest industry products destined for Kazakhstan? Yle had reported from Stubb’s trip to Kazakhstan that exports to Kazakhstan are in the form of cardboard and paper, which would explain those covered wagons.
According to Customs, direct exports to the east via Vainikkala are currently minor. Mainly cardboard and paper are exported by rail, transported in freight trains via Russia to, among other places, Kazakhstan.
A very good pace in the number of trains was maintained in November. 17 trains, which is 24.6% more trains than in November a year ago. October was the company’s record in the number of trains.
Apparently, only the 1st installment has been decided:
It mentions a maximum of 0.06 there, so 0.03 is below that, but one would think that since the minutes mention two installments, the decision regarding the September installment would also have been reported somewhere.
The Board has been given the authorization to distribute or not. Nothing has been promised, and there is still time before the AGM to distribute that second installment. No exact dates were even known, only that comment in the minutes of the general meeting.
