Well, now we’ll see. A miss on both, but still with freezing cold (insanely) strong growth figures. Forecasts apparently vary across different sources, but a miss nonetheless.
ARPAC is one of the most important metrics for me in following Nu Holdings. The revenue generated per individual customer has been in continuous growth for a long time, and on a QoQ level, we went from 15.0 to 16, so the company’s actions are clearly working.
The towel is being thrown in on the cost to serve side, as it rose to exactly one dollar. Until now, it has been kept well under a dollar, but now there has been a clear increase. Of course, it’s still within an acceptable range of fluctuation, and its magnitude is still not concerning in any way. ARPAC is rising significantly faster, so we are on the net-positive side.
Scattered thoughts:
Part of the growth comes from a (conscious) shift toward riskier loan segments. → increases credit risk
The credit portfolio has weakened slightly. 15-90 day non-performing loans/payment delays (NPL) rose to the 5% level. This has been seasonal before, and quite typical in Q1 results. (Chart below)
Risks are being prepared for, and loan loss provisions have been increased by +33% QoQ, amounting to 1.78B USD (eats into profit).
Mexico break-even level reached!
US expansion is progressing cautiously, as management has communicated: they want to keep costs under control.
Satisfied with the quarter once again. The markets for LatAm companies are quite sour, and (I assume) the increasing riskier loans are making investors nervous.
As those who invest in emerging markets know, volatility will be high again.
SÃO PAULO–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Nu Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: NU) today announced that its Board of Directors has approved a share repurchase program of up to US$1.0 billion of the Company’s Class A ordinary shares, to be conducted over a 12-month period beginning June 4, 2026.
