Especially from Eli Lilly, a triple G is coming, which the market expects to meet the requirements that Cagrisema failed to meet.
5% was not a goal but merely the threshold for a clinically significant result. If the actual result had even been close to that, the entire study would now be scrapped and the stock price would have completely collapsed. Even with a placebo, one could, with good luck, get very close to that.
What had you yourself expected and what kind of market share would your expectations have corresponded to, and how much smaller a share of the market do you believe Novo will now get with new generation drugs? However, the stock price is largely based on growth in the coming years, and now growth is in an even worse position. If retatrutide proves to be as effective as believed, then this doesn’t look good.
Yes, it was a target. Quoted from the press release:
Weight loss of 5% or more after 68 weeks was a co-primary endpoint and was achieved by 89.7% of patients on CagriSema, compared to 30.3% by placebo.
Why then did the results fall short of the REDEFINE 1 results?
The study population and sample are different in those. One group (REDEFINE 1) consisted of obese or overweight individuals with one or more comorbidities but no type 2 diabetes, and the study published today included overweight or obese individuals with type 2 diabetes.
More detailed information on those with type 2 diabetes was not available, but these two groups may have metabolic differences between them, e.g., due to other medications (e.g., insulin therapy).
The REDEFINE 4 study to be published later (comparing Novo’s drug to Lilly’s tirzepatide) is very interesting, but its results are still awaited.
In my opinion, when comparing to competitors (in advance), it’s easy to compare apples to oranges. The market tries to understand CagriSema’s potential compared to competitors, but comparing different medicines to each other is a bit challenging. For example, secondary positive effects can be very different. The test programs are also slightly different, e.g., test duration, dose size, patient characteristics, etc.
Zepbound, for which there is no publicly announced successor in development, achieved 15.7-19.5% in trials aimed only at type 2 diabetics (Surmount2). CagriSema’s 15.7% is therefore not a bad result at all. Ultimately, the result also depends a lot on the price and how much of the drug can be sold. Small percentage differences can be insignificant if the price difference is high.
FYI. A New York law firm (Gross) is currently gathering shareholders until the end of March (March 25) who traded Novo shares based on the stock exchange release of December 20, 2024. So, there’s a class action lawsuit underway, based on misleading communication. Let’s see how the stock performs today when this information gets wider distribution. I personally got this information from Norwegian Finansavisen’s announcements.
Please correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t law firms in the USA fish in these waters quite aggressively, and couldn’t this very well be smoke without fire?
These even have their own name in the US. Probably every publicly traded company in the US gets similar accusations from time to time. Usually just noise.
Kepler Cheuvreux lowers Novo Nordisk’s target price to DKK 630 (previously DKK 715), but raises the recommendation to BUY (previously HOLD). A very interesting analysis can be read in Finnish for OP’s customers on the investment pages of the mobile online bank (research).
This tweet contains a light comparison between Novo and Lilly.
Novo is growing rapidly and is very profitable, and its valuation is significantly more moderate than Lilly’s, which, according to the tweet, makes Novo a more interesting investment target.
Below are three recent news stories that might interest those reading this thread. Certainly familiar to many, but I assume new to many others, and in my opinion, presented in a relatively clear manner.
Eli Lilly is developing a new oral weight-loss drug, orforglipron, which could revolutionize the market. It is expected to be as effective as current injectable medications.
The drug could expand treatment availability and further strengthen Eli Lilly’s position in the field.
Then there’s a story about how Novo Nordisk’s CagriSema drug showed promise in weight loss, but on the other hand, fell short of expectations, which also lowered its stock price.
Investors doubt its competitiveness against Wegovy and Zepbound. The company plans new studies and seeks marketing authorization in 2026.
Novo Nordisk is expanding discounted Wegovy pricing to most various parties, lowering the price to $499 per month.
“Until now, the drug was only available at the discounted price through its NovoCare Pharmacy program. The expanded program will offer all dosage strengths of the drug to uninsured patients or eligible patients with commercial insurance who do not have coverage for obesity medicines.”
The stock price has halved since last summer, at the same time as revenue and profit have still grown at a good pace. Insiders are selling, so have sales and profit already turned downwards? Is there better information here about Novo’s sales development?
At the annual general meeting today, the CEO estimated that Wegovy’s sales are pressured by substitute copies brought into the United States to alleviate drug shortages, whose marketing authorization only expires in May. There are also suspicions of illegal copying.
Novo Nordisk’s diabetes drug Rybelsus reduced the risk of cardiovascular disease by 14 percent over four years compared to patients receiving placebo. The study covered over 9,600 individuals with diabetes and established heart disease.
The article below also states that the results confirm the drug’s cardiovascular benefits and offer an oral alternative for patients who shy away from injections. Rybelsus may receive broader approval in the future for the prevention of cardiovascular complications. The most common side effects were only mild digestive problems.
The person mentioned in the headline still gets off cheaply; the most effective gut hormone drugs (or are they tablets targeting the brain’s satiety center?) available in Finland cost 500 euros per month. The real problem is that not everyone can afford these. On the other hand, according to a study by an investment bank, food expenses decrease by about 17% (if I recall correctly) with the use of these medications. The example person, by the way, says they are now considering weight loss surgery, having lost weight and with lower anesthesia risks.
For example, Nestle has already launched frozen pizzas and other ready meals for users of weight loss medication (presumably based mainly on smaller portion sizes, editor’s note).
In the USA, sales of diet literature have decreased, and Weight Watchers’ stock has plummeted by 95% in three years.
The patent for semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy, expires in 2031.
Senator Bernie Sanders has challenged Congress in the US over drug pricing.
The rise of the entire weight loss drug industry is based on two reports published by the WHO at the turn of the millennium, which identified obesity as one of the most significant global health threats.
The pharmaceutical industry strongly promotes and supports the idea that because it is a chronic disease, it requires lifelong medication (Everyone can draw their own conclusions from this).
A Finnish healthcare professional dismisses the idea that weight loss drugs could become KELA-reimbursable; the system cannot sustain this. Is there a misunderstanding here (on my part)? I noticed that @JNivala mentioned earlier in the thread that a Novo representative stated that Wegovy would be eligible for reimbursement with a weight management indication!?
As a disclaimer, my excerpts may contain memory errors, and I do not take responsibility for them
Yes, that’s what Novo’s representative said earlier this year. And the talk was specifically about “during the end of the year,” meaning I understood from the discussion that everything would have gone perfectly if such a thing came about in December -25.
Whether that will actually happen is another matter entirely Apparently, @Bjorninen was told last week that it’s “not coming for now.”
But I don’t see the price as an absolute obstacle in any way. The criteria could be really strict (e.g., “BMI > 40”), only a small portion of the price is reimbursed, etc. There would be countless alternatives.
I could send a message to Novo’s representative about this, as I’m regularly in contact with them anyway.
Apparently,